FI Morning Grain Comments 04/27/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported the cancellation of sales of 233,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Post
US GDP and initial claims, USD was 18 points higher, WTI crude up 5 cents and US equities higher. USDA export sales were within expectations.
Wheat sales improved. US wheat futures hit a fresh 21 month low and nearby Chicago is down seven consecutive sessions from ongoing talk of ample global supplies for grains. July corn (down six out of the last seven days) reached its lowest level since July
2022 and soybeans are back at a one-month low. US weather is expected to gradually improve for US Midwest planting progress and rain is in the forecast for the Great Plains this week and next week. Malaysia palm futures fell 115 ringgit to 3455, and cash fell
$22.50 to $835.00/ton. The session low for July Malaysian palm oil futures hit a late September 2022 level overnight after Indonesia announced they will lower its mandatory domestic sales for palm oil producers to 300,000 tons a month starting in May. Offshore
values were leading SBO lower by about 85 points this morning and meal $0.10 short ton higher. Iraq bought 150,000 tons of Australian milling wheat. Algeria is in for wheat and Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seek 51,925 tons of milling wheat from the United
States.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 26

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 27, 2023

• Southern
  portions of Russia’s eastern New Lands and northern Kazakhstan are still advertised dry and warm biased over the next ten days and perhaps a little longer
• Dryness
  remains in Spain and North Africa
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will see some follow up rain later today and Friday that will further improve crop and field conditions for better spring planting and for some additional improvement to wheat conditions
• Dry
  and warm biased weather in western Canada will promote spring fieldwork
• Eastern
  Canada’s Prairies and the eastern part of North Dakota and Minnesota will experience cool conditions for another week and the remaining snow will melt; fieldwork will be slow to begin in many areas
• Lower
  and west-central U.S. Midwest crop areas will receive lighter than usual precipitation over the next two weeks with cool weather in the first week and a return to more normal temperatures in the second week
• Argentina
  has a little more rain potential for the second week of the outlook today, but net drying will continue in this first week
• Brazil’s
  center west and center south crop areas will continue to receive restricted precipitation which is normal for this time of year
• Southern
  Brazil will experience some periodic rainfall that will maintain a good outlook for late season crops
• New
  South Wales and a part of Queensland will receive some rain briefly Friday into Saturday to benefit future winter crop planting, but follow up rain will be needed
• Watch
  Western Australia where the need for rain is expected to rise for a while
• Wetter
  weather is expected in the western CIS while Europe sees routinely occurring rainfall outside of the Iberian Peninsula where it should be dry for a while

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
April 27:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Euro
  Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 2
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Argus
  Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 3

Friday,
April 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Euro
  Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 3
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• US
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Saturday,
April 29:

• Vietnam’s
  coffee, rice and rubber export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
export Sales
were within expectations for the major commodities.

 

Soybean
export sales of 311,300 tons were about three times the amount reported for the prior week and included Mexico, Japan and Germany. Soybean meal sales included Columbia, Venezuela and Dominican Republic. Soybean oil sales were minimal. Corn export sales were
400,000 tons and were primarily for Mexico, Japan and Columbia. China cancelled a corn cargo (64,300 tons). New crop all-wheat sales picked up from the previous week to 202,100 tons, high end of a range of expectations. Sorghum sales were only 1,000 tons and
pork sales were a large 54,000 tons, a marketing year high, with 32,400 tons booked by Mexico.

 

 

 

Macros

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q1 A: 1.1% (est 1.9%; prev 2.6%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 A: 4.9% (est 4.7%; prev 4.4%)

US
Personal Consumption Q1 A: 3.7% (est 4.0%; prev 1.0%)

US
GDP Price Index Q1 A: 4.0% (est 3.7%; prev 3.9%)

 

US
Initial Jobless Claims Apr 22: 230K (est 248K; prev 254K)

US
Continuing Claims Apr 22: 1858K (est 1870K; prev 1865K)

 

 

Corn

·        
China cancelled more corn commitments per USDA 24-hour. 560,000 tons have been cancelled by China so far this week.

·        
Corn futures are lower following wheat and improving US weather. USDA export sales suggest US commitments need a good boost in order to reach USDA’s export projection.

·        
July corn (down six out of the last seven days) reached its lowest level since July 2022.

·        
US ethanol production dropped a large 57,000 barrels to 967,000 and stocks decreased 987,000 barrels to 24.306 million.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US down slightly and chicks placed down 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 7, 2023 through April 22, 2023 for the United States were 2.99 billion. Cumulative
placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Under the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters reported the cancellation of 233,000 tons of corn for delivery to China for the 2022-23 marketing year. 560,000 tons have been cancelled by China so far this week.

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower led by lower soybean oil and weaker grain markets. Soybeans are back at a one-month low. A rebound in energy prices over the next couple weeks could stabilize soybean oil prices but for now we look for
ongoing fund long liquidation. USDA export sales were ok for soybean and meal. Little was booked for SBO.

·        
A major grain company noted China soybean demand has ended up lower than expected this year.

·        
Malaysia palm futures fell 115 ringgit to 3455, and cash fell $22.50 to $835.00/ton.

·        
The session low for July Malaysian palm oil futures hit a late September 2022 level overnight after Indonesia announced they will lower its mandatory domestic sales for palm oil producers to 300,000 tons a month starting in May.
The ratio of palm oil exports will fall to four times the volume producers have sold domestically, from six times the volume currently. Also, companies can resume the use of around 3 million tons of palm oil permits that were suspended earlier this year under
the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO).

·        
China May soybean futures were down 0.6%, meal up 1.6%, SBO up 1.4% and palm oil futures down 0.8%.

 

China
second month rolling soybean futures

 

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were 10 to 15 euros lower from this time yesterday morning and meal near unchanged.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 85 points this morning and meal $0.10 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  seeks 860 tons of vegetable oil in 4 liter cans for use in export programs. Shipment was scheduled for Jun 1-30 (June 16 to July 15 for plants located at ports). All offers are due by early May 2.
  

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat futures hit a fresh 21 month low and nearby Chicago is down seven consecutive sessions from ongoing talk of ample global supplies for grains. USDA export sales improved for new-crop wheat.

·        
Rain is in the forecast for the Great Plains this week and next week.

·        
Russia is demanding a full implementation of the Black Sea grain deal in order for it not to collapse.

·        
Russia opened their new grain terminal at Port Vysotsky (near St Petersburg) and they sent their first shipment of 27,400 tons of durum wheat destined for Tunisia. The terminal will be fully operational in 2024. 

·        
September Paris wheat futures were lower by 4.75 euros to 238.00 euros.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Iraq bought 150,000 tons of Australian milling wheat at an estimated $387 a ton CIF.

·        
Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seek 51,925 tons of milling wheat from the United States on Thursday, May 5 for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between June 21 and July 5.

·        
Algeria’s OAIC seeks at least 50,000 tons of wheat today, valid until Friday, for May 16 through July 31 shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on May 2.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

USDA export Sales were within expectations for the major commodities.

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  4/20/2023

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	22.8	576.0	1,017.8	68.4	4,480.1	6,472.2	49.4	173.1
SRW	35.1	407.8	369.9	3.4	2,437.7	2,484.2	-9.5	475.8
HRS	15.7	803.6	700.1	161.1	4,878.7	4,721.2	117.8	239.0
WHITE	61.6	596.9	312.5	70.2	4,076.3	3,023.4	44.4	87.6
DURUM	20.5	112.6	0.5	0.5	321.5	195.2	0.0	36.9
TOTAL	155.7	2,497.0	2,400.8	303.6	16,194.3	16,896.1	202.1	1,012.3
BARLEY	0.5	3.8	5.7	0.0	8.2	14.7	0.0	6.0
CORN	400.0	14,780.5	19,383.4	1,076.3	23,671.4	38,132.0	0.0	2,422.4
SORGHUM	-1.0	606.8	2,048.4	55.9	986.8	4,668.5	0.0	63.0
SOYBEANS	311.3	3,905.4	10,849.1	453.7	46,721.6	46,728.1	0.0	1,769.8
SOY MEAL	153.4	2,549.9	2,666.2	251.0	7,013.1	6,987.9	0.0	343.5
SOY OIL	0.1	66.6	134.5	0.5	36.8	515.9	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	34.4	140.8	137.8	1.9	516.1	1,077.9	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.2	32.8	9.2	1.1	22.7	11.8	0.0	5.0
L G BRN	0.0	4.4	6.0	0.1	16.0	44.9	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	21.2	24.1	14.6	23.6	63.1	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	15.1	135.9	86.3	60.8	542.2	623.6	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.8	126.6	223.7	2.0	202.7	296.6	0.0	13.0
TOTAL	51.5	461.7	487.0	80.4	1,323.3	2,117.9	0.0	18.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	194.9	4,186.4	6,325.1	398.4	7,834.7	8,165.9	19.1	1,456.5
PIMA	16.7	94.3	132.3	20.6	163.6	331.9	0.0	4.7

 

 

Export Sales Highlights

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period April 14-20, 2023.

Wheat: 
Net sales of 155,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 40 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (119,200 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), unknown destinations (67,000 MT), Yemen
(50,000 MT), Algeria (20,500 MT), and the Leeward-Windward Islands (7,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (54,100 MT), South Korea (39,300 MT), Taiwan (15,900 MT), Singapore (4,000 MT), and Barbados (100 MT).
Net sales of 202,100 MT for 2023/2024 primarily for the Philippines (82,000 MT), South Korea (45,000 MT), Japan (32,700 MT), Taiwan (18,400 MT), and Honduras (15,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (5,000 MT). Exports of 303,600 MT were up 50 percent
from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (83,700 MT, including 35,800 MT – late), Mexico (58,000 MT), the Philippines (57,900 MT), Taiwan (50,500 MT), and South Korea (35,200 MT).

Late Reporting: 
For 2022/2023, exports totaling 35,805 MT of wheat were reported late. The destination was to Japan (21,631 MT hard red spring wheat and 14,174 MT white wheat).

Corn: 
Net sales of 400,000 MT for 2022/2023 were up 28 percent from the previous week, but down 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (177,200 MT, including 111,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 900 MT),
Mexico (141,200 MT, including 26,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,400 MT), Colombia (110,400 MT, including 89,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 36,200 MT), Peru (77,500 MT, including 26,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), and Venezuela (13,000 MT), were offset by reductions for China (64,300 MT), unknown destinations (54,700 MT), and El Salvador (48,600 MT). Exports of 1,076,300 MT were down 17 percent from the previous week,
but up 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (342,600 MT), Mexico (256,900 MT), China (141,700 MT), Colombia (90,700 MT), and Peru (72,100 MT).

Barley: 
Total net sales of 500 MT for 2022/2023 were for South Korea. No exports were reported for the week.

Sorghum: 
Total net sales reductions of 1,000 MT for 2022/2023 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Decreases were for China. Exports of 55,900 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week
average. The destination was to China.

Rice:  Net sales of 51,500 MT for 2022/2023 were up
noticeably from the previous week and up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Panama (29,600 MT), Haiti (8,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (5,800 MT), Iraq (4,000 MT), and Saudi Arabia (2,100 MT), were offset by
reductions for El Salvador (200 MT) and Guatemala (100 MT). Exports of 80,400 MT were up noticeably the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Iraq (44,000 MT), Haiti (14,900 MT), South Korea (14,600 MT), Mexico
(3,900 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 311,300 MT for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (76,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (75,300 MT, including 55,700 MT switched from
unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), Germany (65,200 MT), unknown destinations (43,300 MT), and Colombia (15,900 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (700 MT).
Exports of 453,700 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (140,600 MT), Germany (65,200 MT), Japan (62,000 MT), Mexico (53,000 MT), and Indonesia (41,400 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 300 MT, all South Korea.

Export for Own Account:
 For 2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 1,600 MT are for Canada (1,400 MT) and Taiwan (200 MT).

Export Adjustments: 
Accumulated exports of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 65,192 MT for week ending April 6th.
The correct destination for this shipment is Germany.

 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 153,400 MT for
2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Colombia (40,100 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (28,600 MT), the United Kingdom (15,000 MT), and Jamaica (10,700
MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (11,600 MT), Canada (4,200 MT), El Salvador (1,100 MT), Belgium (700 MT), and Japan (100 MT). Exports of 251,000 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The
destinations were primarily to the Philippines (51,000 MT), Mexico (41,500 MT), Ireland (30,900 MT), Morocco (29,700 MT), and Colombia (27,600 MT).

 

Soybean Oil:  Total net sales of 100 MT for 2022/2023
were down 34 percent from the previous week and 98 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were for Canada. Exports of 500 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destination was to
Canada (400 MT). 

 

Cotton:  Net sales of 194,900 RB for 2022/2023 were
up noticeably from the previous week and up 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Turkey (63,300 RB, including 10,300 RB – late), China (45,200 RB, including 3,400 RB switched from Singapore and 15,800 RB – late), Vietnam (35,500
RB, including 1,000 RB switched from South Korea, 100 RB switched from Taiwan, 100 RB switched from Japan, and 15,100 RB – late), Taiwan (18,400 RB, including 13,900 RB – late), and Pakistan (11,800 RB, including decreases of 900 RB and 3,900 RB – late), were
offset by reductions for Singapore (3,400 RB), South Korea (3,300 RB), and Peru (1,800 RB). Net sales of 19,100 RB for 2023/2024 were reported for South Korea (13,200 RB), Vietnam (4,400 RB), and Pakistan (1,500 RB). Exports of 398,400 RB were up 38 percent
from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (104,900 RB, including 15,800 RB – late), Vietnam (98,000 RB, including 15,100 RB – late), Turkey (59,400 RB, including 10,300 RB – late), Pakistan
(26,400 RB, including 3,900 RB – late), and Taiwan (19,700 RB, including 13,900 RB – late). Net sales of Pima totaling 16,700 RB for 2022/2023 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily
for India (9,700 RB), Vietnam (3,200 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from China and 100 RB switched from Japan), China (1,500 RB), Hong Kong (1,300 RB), and Pakistan (400 RB). Exports of 20,600 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 23 percent from the previous
week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (10,200 RB), India (6,500 RB), Vietnam (1,900 RB), Pakistan (700 RB), and Turkey (300 RB). 

 

Optional Origin Sales:
 For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 5,800 RB, all Malaysia.

Export for Own Account:
 For 2022/2023, new exports for own account totaling 7,700 RB were to Vietnam (6,300 RB) and China (1,400 RB). Exports for own account totaling 3,800 RB primarily
to China (2,900 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales. The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 142,100 RB are for China (116,100 RB), Vietnam (15,900 RB), Pakistan (5,000 RB), South Korea (2,400 RB), India (1,500 RB), and Turkey (1,200
RB).

Late Reporting: 
For 2022/2023, net sales and exports totaling 66,103 RB of upland cotton were reported late. The destinations were China (15,840 RB), Vietnam (15,053 RB), Taiwan (13,906 RB), Turkey (10,300 RB), Pakistan (3,876 RB), Malaysia (3,785 RB), and Thailand (3,343
RB).

Hides and Skins: 
Net sales of 374,200 pieces for 2023 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (255,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 21,900 pieces), South Korea (42,000 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), Mexico (41,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 4,500 pieces), Thailand (23,100 whole cattle hides), and Taiwan (9,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), were offset by reductions of
Italy (300 pieces) and Indonesia (100 pieces). In addition, total net sales reductions of 2,500 kip skins were for China. Exports of 389,000 pieces were down 3 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hides exports
were primarily to China (267,400 pieces), Mexico (48,100 pieces), South Korea (25,100 pieces), Brazil (12,500 pieces), and Thailand (11,900 pieces). Exports of 2,600 kip skins were to China.

Net sales of 32,300 wet blues for 2023 were down 90 percent from the previous week and 79 percent
from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Thailand (38,500 unsplit), Vietnam (21,500 unsplit), Mexico (8,500 unsplit and 1,800 grain splits), China (7,100 unsplit and 2,000 grain splits), and South Korea (1,800 grain splits), were offset by reductions
for Italy (49,000 unsplit). Exports of 100,100 wet blues were down 27 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (27,800 unsplit), Vietnam (23,200 unsplit), Italy (22,300 unsplit),
Hong Kong (15,000 unsplit), and Taiwan (4,300 unsplit). Net sales of 45,000 splits were reported for China (42,000 pounds), South Korea (2,100 pounds), and Vietnam (900 pounds). No exports of splits were reported for the week.

Beef: 
Net sales of 9,500 MT for 2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada
(1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (500 MT), and China (500 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT). Exports of 16,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to
South Korea (4,100 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), China (3,000 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 54,000 MT for 2023–a marketing-year high–were up 50 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (32,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (6,400 MT, including decreases
of 3,100 MT), Canada (4,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (3,100 MT), and China (1,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), were offset by reductions for Malaysia (100 MT) and Nicaragua (100 MT). Exports of 38,000 MT–a marketing-year high–were
up 11 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,600 MT), China (6,000 MT), South Korea (4,700 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).