FI Morning Grain Comments 05/01/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 
Happy May Day

 

USD
was 1 point lower, WTI crude down $1.76 and US equities mostly lower. Many countries are on holiday for May Day and therefore news is light. CBOT ags are mostly lower from an improving US weather outlook bias Midwest with restricted showers until at least
the end of the week. However, the Great Plains will see limited rainfall and the Canadian Prairies will be dry and warmer than normal this week. Some traders are looking for an improvement in US winter wheat crop conditions when updated this afternoon after
rain developed last week across key production areas. Later
today NASS will update US March crush. Estimates for crush and (revised) corn use below.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 28

‘

 

 

 

Weather

 

Last
7 days

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 1, 2023

• Unusually
  great amounts of rain fell in India during the weekend stalling fieldwork and raising concern for unharvested winter crops
• Unsettled
  weather will continue through Wednesday causing more delay and more concern over crop conditions
• Portions
  of China’s eastern North China Plain and the northeastern provinces received rain during the weekend improving spring planting moisture and improving a few winter crops in Hebei; Shandong missed the rain once again and is too dry in some areas
• A
  few more showers and thunderstorms are expected in West Texas during the next ten days, although big soakings of rain may elude the region for a while longer
• U.S.
  Midwest will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine, although there will be some disruption to farming activity
  
• U.S.
  Plains weather will be favorably mixed for spring planting and emergence and some winter crops will benefit from the moisture as well
• U.S.
  Midwest weather will be cool, showery and blustery today and for a little while Tuesday resulting in poor field working conditions, but mid- to late-week weather will improve before rain resumes late this week and into the weekend
• Canada’s
  Prairies will be unusually warm and drier than usual this workweek allowing spring fieldwork to advance in many areas; some rain will impact southeastern Manitoba during the weekend and Alberta could be impacted with some rain by early next week
  
• Brazil’s
  key Safrinha corn and cotton producing areas will experience limited rainfall for the next ten days and seasonable temperatures
• Eastern
  Argentina will trend wetter later this week and the moisture will spread to the south this weekend and early next week
• Heavy
  rain is possible in northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul Friday into Monday of next week
  
• Frost
  and freezes occurred late last week in northeastern Europe causing damage to various fruit bearing bushes and trees, but not to wheat or rapeseed; additional cold weather is expected over coming week to ten days with some of that getting into northwestern
  Russia as well
• Spain,
  Portugal and North Africa will continue warm and mostly dry for another ten days
• Dry
  and warm weather will continue this week in Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands; dryness continues into next week with more seasonable temperatures likely
• Southeast
  Asia will continue receive periodic rain supporting most crops and fieldwork
• Australia
  rainfall will be confined to the far south this week; Western Australia may get some needed rain next week

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
May 1:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• USDA
  soybean crush, corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
• US
  winter wheat condition, 4pm
• US
  planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Labor day holiday in several countries, including UK, Germany, Argentina, India, Brazil, China, Singapore and Hong Kong

Tuesday,
May 2:

• US
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-30 palm oil exports
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  China,
  Vietnam

Wednesday,
May 3:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  China,
  Japan, Vietnam

Thursday,
May 4:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh

Friday,
May 5:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• Malaysia’s
  May 1-5 palm oil export data
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, South Korea, Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Traditional
funds and managed money sold a lot more corn and soybeans than the trade predicted for the week ending April 25.

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT Corn
is lower in large part to lower US energy markets and some weakness in equities.

·        
News is lacking with many countries on holiday.

·        
Looking at US weather, it will improve over the next week. Restrictions in rain will facilitate planting progress. Same is seen for Canada.

 

Bloomberg
trade and FI estimate was corrected below

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are marginally higher from light technical buying. Meal is slightly higher and soybean oil under pressure from a lower trade in WTI crude oil.

·        
We heard there was some South American soybean selling but basis overall has been rising from lack of producer selling last week.

·        
Deliveries are circulating for soybean oil while no deliveries were reported again for soybeans and soybean meal.

·        
Malaysian palm oil exports fell 18 percent for the month of April from March to 1.176 million tons, per ITS.

·        
Malaysia and several other markets are closed for holiday.

 

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  seeks 860 tons of vegetable oil in 4 liter cans for use in export programs. Shipment was scheduled for Jun 1-30 (June 16 to July 15 for plants located at ports). All offers are due by early May 2.
  

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat futures are lower after good rain fell across about 75 percent of the US winter wheat are last week. Ample global supplies were noted by the news wires. 

·        
Later today the trade may learn the volume results from the Algerian wheat import tender.

·        
September Paris wheat futures were not quoted dur to the holiday.

·        
Egypt said they enough wheat to last 2.6 months. This is a little tighter than usual, in our opinion. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on May 2.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported