FI Morning Grain Comments 05/03/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Corn
futures are higher following slow US planting progress and light news as many countries are still on holiday. Soybean complex turned higher. Slow corn seedings could shift some acre to soybeans this season. Wheat is higher on lower USDA winter wheat ratings
and slow spring wheat plantings. Beneficial rain moving into parts of the Great Plains this week could limit gains. The Midwest will see locally heavy rain this week which could continue to hinder fieldwork progress. South Korea flour millers seeks 50,000
tons of milling wheat from the US on May 4 for shipment between June 16 and July 15.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 3, 2022

• Additional
  rain is expected in U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas tonight into Thursday
  
• the
  precipitation will be welcome, although lightest in the southwest again
• recent
  moisture and that coming is improving pre-reproductive crop conditions
• West
  Texas cotton areas will have a good chance for scattered thunderstorms tonight and again Wednesday night
  
• two
  day coverage will increase to nearly 50% and rainfall will be locally heavy once again similar to Sunday night, but only in an isolated manner
• U.S.
  Midwest planting delays will continue through the weekend, although most of the significant rain will end Friday
• Net
  drying is expected in U.S. Midwest and central Plains during the weekend and early to mid-week next week
  
• The
  break may last long enough with warmer temperatures to get some producers into their fields for some much needed planting, although muddy
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and southeastern Canada’s Prairies will be back into the rain again this weekend and early next week resulting in more concern over flooding in some areas and more delay to fieldwork
• Southwestern
  Canada’s Prairies may get a little precipitation briefly late this week, but amounts will not be enough to seriously bolster soil moisture
• Mato
  Grosso and Goias, Brazil will continue to miss “significant” rain fall
• most
  of the rain expected will be too brief and light to have a lasting impact on crop development and production potential
• Argentina
  is expecting dry weather to dominate much of the nation for a while
• Eastern
  Australia will dry down for a while, but more rain is expected next week
• India
  is not expected to be as hot for a while
• China
  weather still looks mostly normal 
• Europe
  and the western CIS swill see a favorable mix of weather through the next ten days
• North
  Africa rainfall will continue timely for winter crop development
• Coffee,
  cocoa sugarcane and oil palm production areas in the tropics are expecting normal weather for a while 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
May 3:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Purdue
  Agriculture Sentiment
• HOLIDAY:
  China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Wednesday,
May 4:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• New
  Zealand commodity prices
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan

Thursday,
May 5:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan

Friday,
May 6:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Statistics
  Canada releases stockpiles data for barley, canola and wheat
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
384,460                 versus   225000-500000  range

Corn                     
1,683,994             versus   1000000-1775000             range

Soybeans           
601,282                 versus   500000-1000000                range

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisor

2021/22
Brazil Corn Estimate Lowered 5.0 mt to 107.0 Million Tons

Safrinha
Corn in Mato Grosso Impacted by Driest April in 17 Years

2021/22
Argentina Corn Estimate Unchanged at 49.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 123.0 Million Tons

2021/22
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 40.0 Million Tons

 

Macros

Central
Chinese City Of Zhengzhou Imposes New Covid Movement Curbs For May 4-10

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher following the slow pace of US planting progress (slowest since 2013 season) and light news as many countries are still on holiday.

·        
Corn plantings as of Sunday were 14 percent versus 33 average.

·        
The Midwest will see locally heavy rain this week which could continue to hinder fieldwork progress.

·        
WTI crude oil was down $1.30 at the time this was written, and USD was off 64 points.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of April 28, 2022 were 1,683,994 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 1,665,105 tons previous week and compares to 2,211,277 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 465,835
tons, Colombia for 245,653 tons, and Japan for 241,437 tons.

·        
USDA reported March US corn for ethanol came in slightly below expectations at 455 million bushels (457 estimated), well above 406 million bushels for February and 420 million March 2021. We will leave out corn for ethanol use
by 5 million to 5.375 billion, same as USDA.

 

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans,
meal and soybean oil are all higher this morning after many contracts traded two-sided. A lower WTI crude oil market may limit gains in soybean oil. Meal was higher on follow through buying due in part to India relaxing import rules for GMO soybean meal and
unwinding of oil/meal spreads. Charts suggested a correctional pattern yesterday. Look for a choppy trade.

·        
Brazil’s AgMin warned high interest rates and securing Treasury resources for the upcoming 2022-23 season could affect funding for producers.

·        
China and Malaysia are on holiday so there is little lead in the offshore markets.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 227 points higher and meal $0.90 short ton lower.

·        
Rotterdam meal was mixed from this time yesterday morning and vegetable oils 30-100 euros lower.

·        
(Bloomberg) — There is extensive dryness in parts of Europe including France, Bulgaria, the southern U.K. and northern Germany and Poland, forecaster Maxar says in a note. 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of April 28, 2022 were 601,282 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 605,385 tons previous week and compares to 155,374 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 232,494
tons, Egypt for 173,845 tons, and Mexico for 70,948 tons.

·        
NASS US soybean crush for the month of March came in very close to expectations as well for end of March soybean oil stocks. Meal stocks were slightly lower from the previous month. Soybean oil stocks of 2.434 billion pounds are
lowest since November 2021. We see no price surprises from this report.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to sell another 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on May 6.

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is higher on lower USDA winter wheat ratings and slow spring wheat plantings (19 percent versus 28 average). Beneficial rain moving into parts of the Great Plains this week could limit gains.

·        
APK-Inform warned Ukraine could see a grain harvest shortage crunch with slow exports. Grain and oilseeds stocks at the end of the current season might reach an all-time high of 21.3 million tons due to exports forecast at 45.5
million tons (86 million produced in 2021). The upcoming winter grain harvest would obviously add to the end of 2021-22 season stocks. We heard a large silo in Ukraine’s Rubizhne region was destroyed this week.

·        
Ukraine is nearly a third complete with spring crop plantings, or 4.7 million hectares out of the 11.45 million, 3.5-4.0 million less than last year, according to UGA.

·        
The euro was lower, but September Paris wheat futures are up 3.00 euros to 381 at the time this was written.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of April 28, 2022 were 384,460 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 289,607 tons previous week and compares to 533,203 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 97,927
tons, Philippines for 55,294 tons, and Korea Rep for 54,999 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
South Korea flour millers seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat from the US on May 4 for shipment between June 16 and July 15.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on May 10 for Aug/Sep shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on May 11 for Jun/Aug shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported