FI Morning Grain Comments 05/05/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

With
exception of soybean oil, we are seeing higher agriculture markets this morning on follow through buying and higher WTI crude oil. The USD rallied this morning after setting back on Wednesday post FED increase of the interest rate by 50 basis points. The US
will gradually warm up during the balance of the week. There were no flash USDA 24-hour sales this morning. Malaysian palm oil ended 352 ringgit per ton higher to 6,752, or 5%, and cash was down $40/ton at $1,750ton. Tunisia bought wheat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 5, 2022

• Central
  and eastern Midwestern crop areas will have several days of potential drying next week with temperatures trending warmer
  
• this
  will help to enhance drying rates and “some” improved field access will result including more aggressive planting for a few days, though a more active weather may resume near and beyond mid-month 
• Rain
  in western hard red winter wheat areas of the U.S. Wednesday and overnight might have been a little less significant than expected, although the bottom line has not changed much
• Warming
  is still expected in the southern Plains this weekend with extreme highs reaching into the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit in much of the southern half of the Plains with extremes over 100 in Texas and southern Oklahoma
  
• The
  heat will be stressful for livestock and will increase evaporation leading to greater crop stress in unirrigated areas still struggling with dryness
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies will be experiencing a return of frequent precipitation late this weekend through most of next week 
  
• planting
  delays will be extended beyond mid-month
• West
  Texas cotton areas will have opportunity for showers and thunderstorms during the middle part of next week as a slow-moving frontal system allows for multiple nights of possible showers and thunderstorms
  
• the
  precipitation is still expected to be sporadic and light
• Mato
  Grosso and Goias experienced milder temperatures Wednesday which reduced drying rates
  
• Dryness
  will continue over the next ten days, although there opportunity for “some” showers early next week
  
• the
  moisture will not seriously improve crop or field conditions
• Argentina
  will continue to see very limited rainfall over the next ten days raising some worry over autumn planting moisture for winter crops in the west
• Europe
  is still expected to dry out in the west and northern parts of the continent during the next ten days raising some concern about dryness in France, Germany and a part of Spain
• Eastern
  Australia will turn much wetter next week
• This
  could result in some flooding in sugarcane areas along the Queensland and upper New South Wales coast
• Disruptions
  to late season sorghum and cotton harvesting is expected, although much of the cotton may have been harvested already in Queensland
• The
  moisture will be good for future winter grain and oilseed planting
• water
  supply will improve in some of the wettest areas

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
May 5:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan

Friday,
May 6:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Statistics
  Canada releases stockpiles data for barley, canola and wheat
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Most
within expectations. Old crop soybean sales were better than expected that included unknown destinations (316,700 MT), China (200,800 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 700 MT), and Egypt (68,800 MT, including 65,000
MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT). 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Apr 30: 200K (est 180K; prev 180K; prevR 181K)

US
Continuing Claims Apr 23: 1384K (est 1400K; prev 1408K; prevR 1403K)

US
Nonfarm Productivity Q1 P: -7.5% (est -5.3%; prev 6.6%; prevR 6.3%)

US
Unit Labor Costs Q1 P: 11.6% (est 10.0%; prev 0.9%; prevR 1.0%)

 

Yesterday:
FOMC Raises Benchmark Interest Rate By 50Bps; Target Range Stands At 0.75% – 1.00%

–
Interest Rate On Reserves Balances Raised To 0.90% From 0.40%

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher in part to higher wheat and strength in WTI crude oil.

·        
WTI crude oil was up $2.78 at the time this was written (8:26 am CT), and USD was up 66 points.

·        
Weekly ethanol production was up 6,000 barrels per day to 969,000, highest since early April. Trade was looking for a 3,000 increase. Stocks decreased for the fifth consecutive week by 78,000 barrels to 23.887 million. Trade was
looking for a draw of 58,000 barrels.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 1 percent and chicks placed up 1 percent from the previous year.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through April 30, 2022, for the United States were
3.16 billion. Cumulative placements were down slightly from the same period a year earlier.

·        
We are hearing producers are rolling planters in western Tennessee.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex is mixed with soybean oil lower (following palm) and meal and soybeans higher following strength in outside related markets.

·        
Brazil is expected to expand their 2022-23 soybean area by 1.5 percent compared to over a 4 percent increase for 2021-22.

·        
China and Malaysia are back from holiday.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 111 points lower and meal $4.00 short ton higher.

·        
Rotterdam meal was down 2-7 euros from this time yesterday morning and vegetable oils mixed.

·        
Malaysian palm oil ended 352 ringgit per ton higher to 6,752, or 5%, and cash was down $40/ton at $1,750ton.

·        
China September soybean futures were down 0.6%, meal down 0.6%, SBO 1.4% lower and China palm oil down 1.7%.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to sell another 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on May 6.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are seeing follow through buying despite a higher USD on US planting delays and concerns India wheat exports will be limited next season due to lower than initially expected crop production.

·        
Hot temperatures for the southern US Great Plains with limited precipitation in the forecast is adding to the bullish sentiment.

·        
An additional 119 CBOT SRW wheat registrations were cancelled in Ohio last night.

·        
September Paris wheat futures are up 8.00 euros to 395.50 at the time this was written.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia state grain buyer bought 100,000 tons of optional origin soft wheat and 75,000 tons of feed barley for June and July shipment, depending on origin. The wheat was bought in four 25,000-ton consignments at an estimated $445.49,
$463.79, $458.68 and $444.68 all per ton c&f. The barley was bought in three 25,000-ton consignments at an estimated $436.68, at $438.49 and at $432.89 all per ton c&f.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on May 10 for Aug/Sep shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on May 11 for Jun/Aug shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  4/28/2022

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	11.2	861.6	922.3	167.4	6,639.6	7,779.1	17.4	591.4
SRW	18.2	314.0	235.3	74.2	2,558.4	1,600.7	11.5	603.0
HRS	54.7	686.1	909.5	68.7	4,789.9	6,745.7	13.5	648.9
WHITE	34.2	280.0	877.9	66.7	3,090.1	5,762.4	0.0	400.3
DURUM	0.4	0.5	69.6	0.4	195.5	595.0	0.0	64.4
TOTAL	118.8	2,142.2	3,014.6	377.4	17,273.5	22,482.9	42.4	2,307.9
BARLEY	0.0	5.7	5.1	0.1	14.8	25.5	0.0	8.6
CORN	782.5	18,261.1	24,353.6	1,904.8	40,036.9	43,503.3	737.9	4,944.7
SORGHUM	88.1	1,924.3	1,634.0	212.2	4,880.8	5,524.2	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	734.6	11,020.0	4,955.8	563.7	47,291.8	56,328.9	407.0	11,148.3
SOY MEAL	232.2	2,664.9	2,119.2	233.5	7,221.4	7,506.3	0.4	370.8
SOY OIL	14.7	136.4	78.1	12.8	528.7	590.7	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	7.9	134.0	239.1	11.7	1,089.6	1,299.3	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	8.7	5.3	0.5	12.2	23.5	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.3	5.8	2.7	0.5	45.4	36.0	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	9.8	45.4	14.3	77.3	109.5	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	8.5	92.0	29.5	2.8	626.5	523.9	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	-6.6	212.6	240.6	4.4	301.0	425.7	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	10.1	463.0	562.7	34.1	2,152.1	2,418.0	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	232.4	6,130.8	3,929.0	426.6	8,592.5	11,284.0	93.2	2,939.3
PIMA	3.4	114.4	184.2	21.2	353.1	588.6	4.0	44.6

 

 

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period April 22-28, 2022.

 Wheat:  Net sales of 118,800 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week
and up 53 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (88,400 MT, including decreases of 13,600 MT), the Philippines (58,300 MT, including decreases of 5,000 MT), El Salvador (10,400 MT, including 9,600 MT switched from Guatemala),
South Korea (5,000 MT), and Colombia (3,300 MT, including decreases of 15,800 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Nigeria (46,000 MT) and Guatemala (7,200 MT).  Net sales of 42,400 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Mexico (15,900 MT), the Dominican
Republic (13,500 MT), Honduras (7,000 MT), and El Salvador (6,000 MT).  Exports of 377,400 MT were up 53 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (87,600 MT), the Philippines (55,300
MT), South Korea (55,000 MT), Colombia (48,500 MT), and Japan (41,100 MT).    

Corn:  Net sales of 782,500
MT for 2021/2022 were down 10 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (465,900 MT, including decreases of 10,200 MT), Colombia (191,600 MT, including 158,000 MT switched from unknown destinations
and decreases of 67,200 MT), Japan (165,800 MT, including 47,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,600 MT), Spain (157,100 MT, including 98,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,800 MT), and Taiwan (82,900 MT,
including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (375,500 MT).  Net sales of 737,900 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (612,000 MT), Japan (50,600 MT), Guatemala (46,700 MT), and
El Salvador (22,300 MT).  Exports of 1,904,800 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 22 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (465,800 MT), Mexico (279,800 MT), Colombia (245,700
MT), Japan (201,200 MT), and Spain (157,100 MT).   

Optional Origin Sales:  For
2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 378,300 MT is for unknown destinations (240,000 MT), South Korea (65,000 MT), Italy (34,300 MT), Morocco (30,000 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 35,400 MT
is for Italy.  

Late Reporting: For 2021/2022,
net sales and exports totaling 15,600 MT of corn was reported late for Venezuela. 

Barley: No net sales were
reported for the week.  Exports of 100 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to South Korea.   

Sorghum:  Net sales of
88,100 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Spain (86,900 MT, including 83,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for
unknown destinations (12,000 MT).  Exports of 212,200 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (125,300 MT) and Spain (86,900 MT). 

Rice:  Net sales of 10,100
MT for 2021/2022 were down 38 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Honduras (8,700 MT), Canada (4,100 MT), El Salvador (3,200 MT switched from Guatemala), Saudi Arabia (2,100 MT), and the United
Kingdom (1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for Jordan (5,800 MT) and Guatemala (3,900 MT).  Exports of 34,100 MT were down 62 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (16,400
MT), Guatemala (7,900 MT), El Salvador (3,800 MT), Canada (3,000 MT), and Mexico (700 MT). 

Soybeans:  Net sales of
734,600 MT for 2021/2022 were up 53 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for unknown destinations (316,700 MT), China (200,800 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and
decreases of 700 MT), Egypt (68,800 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (63,600 MT, including decreases of 18,400 MT), and Indonesia (32,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT).  Net sales of 407,000 MT
for 2022/2023 were reported for China (268,000 MT), unknown destinations (121,000 MT), and Mexico (18,000 MT).  Exports of 563,700 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to China (178,000 MT), Egypt (173,800 MT), Mexico (81,700 MT, including 9,900 MT – late), Colombia (35,600 MT), and Japan (26,000 MT).   

Export for Own Account: For
2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 29,700 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 62,400 MT, all Canada. 

Late Reporting: For 2021/2022,
exports totaling 10,900 MT of soybeans were reported late for Mexico (9,900 MT) and Malaysia (1,000 MT).  

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net
sales of 232,200 MT for 2021/2022 were up 14 percent from the previous week and 86 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (121,100 MT, including 22,000 MT switched from unknown destination and decreases of 2,200 MT), Guatemala
(43,400 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Mexico (28,100 MT), Venezuela (18,500 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, decreases of 1,500 MT, and 20,000 MT – late), and El Salvador (13,900 MT, including 3,700 MT switched from Guatemala),
were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (18,000 MT) and the Dominican Republic (14,300 MT).  Total net sales of 400 MT for 2022/2023 were for Canada.  Exports of 233,500 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (49,800 MT, including 800 MT – late), Colombia (38,400 MT), Ecuador (32,800 MT), Morocco (21,900 MT), and Guatemala (19,900 MT).  

Late Reporting: For 2021/2022,
net sales totaling 20,000 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported late for Venezuela.  Exports totaling 19,300 MT were reported late to Venezuela (18,500 MT) and the Philippines (800 MT).  

Soybean Oil:  Net sales
of 14,700 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (12,000 MT).  Exports of 12,800 MT were up 29 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior
4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (11,800 MT) and Canada (600 MT). 

Cotton:  Net sales of
232,400 RB for 2021/2022 were up 92 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (99,700 RB, including decreases of 13,500 RB), Vietnam (65,800 RB, including 1,000 RB switched from Indonesia
and 400 RB switched from South Korea), Bangladesh (24,000 RB), Turkey (15,400 RB, including decreases of 1,600 RB), and India (14,900 RB, including decreases of 1,200 RB), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (900 RB).  Net sales of 93,200 RB for
2022/2023 were primarily for Turkey (36,300 RB), Pakistan (19,800 RB), Guatemala (14,600 RB), Peru (9,600 RB), and Indonesia (6,600 RB).  Exports of 426,600 RB were up 11 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were
primarily to China (156,500 RB), Turkey (74,200 RB), Vietnam (65,100 RB), Pakistan (48,000 RB), and Mexico (14,100 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 3,400 RB were down 74 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
reported for China (2,800 RB), Vietnam (1,300 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan and 400 RB – late), Pakistan (1,000 RB, including 900 RB switched from the United Arab Emirates and 900 RB – late), Thailand (600 RB, including 300 RB switched from Japan,
300 RB switched from unknown destinations, and 300 RB – late), and Indonesia (100 RB switched from Japan, including 100 RB – late), were offset by reductions for the United Arab Emirates (900 RB), Japan (800 RB), India (400 RB), and unknown destinations (400
RB).  Net sales of 4,000 RB for 2022/2023 were primarily for India (2,600 RB).  Exports of 21,200 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 72 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (8,300 RB), Peru (3,500
RB), Thailand (1,700 RB, including 300 RB – late), China (1,700 RB, including 1,300 RB – late), and Turkey (900 RB).   

Optional Origin Sales:  For
2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 57,200 RB is for Vietnam (52,800 RB) and Pakistan (4,400 RB).   

Exports for Own Account: For
2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 RB, all Vietnam. 

Late Reporting: For 2021/2022,
net sales totaling 1,700 RB of pima cotton were reported late for Pakistan (900 RB), Vietnam (400 RB), Thailand (300 RB), and Indonesia (100 RB).  Exports totaling 3,900 RB of pima cotton were reported late to China (1,300 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), Vietnam (400
RB), Switzerland (400 RB), Germany (400 RB), Thailand (300 RB), Colombia (100 RB), and Indonesia (100 RB). 

Hides and Skins:  Net
sales of 480,800 pieces for 2022 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China
(288,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 8,400 pieces), Mexico (79,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 600 pieces), South Korea (56,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 500 pieces), Thailand (22,100 whole cattle hides, including
decreases of 1,500 pieces), and Brazil (9,700 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for Italy (1,600 pieces), Taiwan (700 pieces), and Canada (100 pieces).  Exports of 428,000 pieces were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (225,200 pieces), Mexico (46,800 pieces), South Korea (42,800 pieces), Thailand (39,100 pieces), and Italy (24,400 pieces).   

Net sales of 87,700 wet blues for 2022 were up 43 percent from the previous week, but down
30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (32,600 unsplit), Vietnam (24,900 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Thailand (18,100 unsplit), Taiwan (7,500 unsplit), and Italy (6,300 unsplit, including decreases of 100
unsplit and 100 grain splits), were offset by reductions for Mexico (4,400 unsplit).  Exports of 164,700 wet blues were up 29 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (42,000
unsplit and 12,100 grain splits), Vietnam (38,300 unsplit), China (35,700 unsplit), Thailand (15,400 unsplit), and Hong Kong (7,400 unsplit).  Net sales of 759,000 splits were up noticeably from the previous week and up 53 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
reported for Vietnam (758,000 pounds, including decreases of 5,000 pounds), China (4,000 pounds), and Taiwan (1,900 pounds), were offset by reductions for South Korea (4,900 pounds).  Exports of 484,300 pounds were up 2 percent from the previous week, but
down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (319,400 pounds) and China (122,100 pounds). 

Beef:  Net sales of 14,600
MT for 2022 were up 28 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (4,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Taiwan (1,800 MT, including
decreases of 100 MT), China (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Total net sales of 100 MT for 2023 were reported for Japan.  Exports of 20,300 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 7
percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (6,600 MT), South Korea (5,000 MT), China (3,200 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT).   

Pork:  Net sales of 23,800
MT for 2022 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (11,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including
decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (1,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), were offset by reductions for Nicaragua (600 MT) and New Zealand (100 MT).  Exports of 32,200 MT were up 8 percent from the previous
week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,600 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (3,600 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).