FI Morning Grain Comments 05/10/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
weather has
a little more precipitation for the Midwest during the back end of the seven day outlook. Temperatures will remain very warm and provide a good opportunity for US producers to plant spring grains this week. This morning we are seeing higher prices for the
US agriculture markets on technical buying after seeing selling Monday. US crop plantings as of Sunday fell short of expectations. WTI crude oil was lower by 8:10 am CT and the USD lower. US equities are rebounding.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 10, 2022

• A
  wet weather bias remains in place for the far northern U.S. Plains into eastern Canada’s Prairies, although the rain frequency and intensity may decrease for a little while next week
• Thunderstorms
  are expected from West Texas to Kansas and Nebraska over each of the next four nights offering a good mix of rain and sunshine for winter and spring crops across the region
• Very
  warm to hot temperatures have occurred in the central and southern Plains and apart of Midwest recently and the heat will expand through the balance of this week impacting many U.S. Midwestern locations and a fair amounts of the central and eastern Great Plains
• Net
  drying is expected in Georgia, northern Florida and Alabama during the next week to ten days resulting in rising crop moisture stress because some of that region is already running a little dry
• Good
  planting weather is expected in the eastern and central U.S. Midwest during the second half of this week
• Europe
  will continue to dry down raising crop moisture stress for winter and recently emerged spring crops
  
• drying
  will be good for aggressive fieldwork; including the planting of spring and summer crops
• western
  and northern Russia will be wet in the coming ten days slowing some fieldwork
• Recent
  rain in western and north-central Kazakhstan will benefit spring wheat and sunseed planting
• India’s
  Far Eastern States may experience some flooding rain in the coming week
• Tropical
  Cyclone Asani will bring heavy rain and some flooding to the central east coast of India later this week
• Excessive
  rain is expected in southern China’s rice and sugarcane areas near the coast in the coming week
• Eastern
  Australia will be too wet over the balance of this week with flooding along the central Queensland coast impacting sugarcane and some mining operations
  
• Cotton
  fiber quality declines are expected for unharvested crops
• South
  Africa will continue seasonably dry favoring good harvest progress
• Brazil’s
  Mato Grosso and Goias will continue dry for the next ten days maintaining crop stress for Safrinha corn and some cotton
• Argentina
  will continue dry biased for the next ten days

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
May 10:

• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data for April output, exports and stockpiles
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Globoil
  International 2022 in Dubai, day 2
• Innovation
  Forum’s virtual Future of Food conference, May 10-12
• New
  York sugar seminar hosted by StoneX Financial
• France
  agriculture ministry’s monthly grains report
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data during the week (tentative)
• Holiday:
  Russia

Wednesday,
May 11:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Globoil
  International 2022 in Dubai, day 3
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook
• Annual
  New York Sugar Conference, hosted by Datagro and International Sugar Organization

Thursday,
May 12:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases data on area, yield and output of corn and soybeans
• New
  Zealand food prices

Friday,
May 13:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Reuters
estimates for USDA

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher on technical buying and rebound in outside related markets.  Only 22 percent of the US corn crop had been planted as of Sunday, below expectations and well behind average.

·        
WTI crude oil turned mixed after the ag electronic pause.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of May 05, 2022 were 1,392,685 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,696,181 tons previous week and compares to 1,716,299 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 329,190
tons, Japan for 320,635 tons, and China for 264,055 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
(New 5/10) South Korea’s KFA bought 65,000 tons of corn at an estimated $379.95 a ton c&f for arrival in South Korea around Aug. 20.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex is higher on technical buying and a rebound in outside related markets coupled with slow US spring plantings pace. Some speculate it’s about time producers switch from corn to soybeans, but we think there is
at least a 2-week window before that happens. 

·        
China import demand has been questionable recently as 24-hour announcements have been slow.

·        
Abiove: Brazil soybean production 125.4 MMT, up 100,000 from previous and exports at 77.2 million tons. We are nearly 2 million tons above their Brazil export projection.

·        
(Reuters) – India’s edible oil imports are set to fall for the third year in a row on a rise in local oilseed supplies and as a rally in vegetable oil prices to a record high dented demand, an industry official said on Tuesday.
The world’s biggest importer of edible oils is likely to make overseas purchases of 12.9 million tons in the 2021/22 marketing year ending on Oct. 31, down from 13.13 million tons a year earlier, B.V. Mehta, executive director of Solvent Extractors’ Association
of India, said.

·        
(Reuters) – Malaysia’s production and exports of palm oil are expected to rise 30% by the end of this year, amid increased demand after neighboring Indonesia banned exports and following the re-entry of plantation workers from
abroad, a minister said.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO 8 points higher and meal $3.20 short ton higher.

·        
Rotterdam meal was down mostly 7-10 euros from this time yesterday morning and vegetable oils mixed.

·        
ITS: May 1-10 Malaysian palm exports 390,938 tons, up 40 percent from 278,621 previous period prior month. AmSpec reported a 39 percent increase to 376,573 tons.

·        
Malaysian palm oil ended 96 ringgit per ton lower to 6,313, and cash was down $30/ton at $1,590 ton.

·        
China September soybean futures were down 0.1%, meal down 0.7%, SBO 1.2% lower and China palm oil down 0.5%.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of May 05, 2022 were 503,414 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 604,711 tons previous week and compares to 277,090 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 210,649
tons, Indonesia for 74,503 tons, and Taiwan for 69,251 tons.

 

Export
Developments

·        
5/6 – China looks to sell 314,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on May 13.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher on slow US spring wheat planting progress and unfavorable weather lowering winter wheat yield potential for the southern Great Plains.

·        
An additional 147 CBOT SRW wheat registrations were cancelled in Ohio last night. A total of 1019 SRW receipts were cancelled over a five-day period.

·        
Hot temperatures over the next few days will be unfavorable for US winter wheat yields (except for protein content) bias southern and parts of the west-central Great Plains. 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of May 05, 2022 were 236,847 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 392,443 tons previous week and compares to 563,598 tons year ago. Major countries included Indonesia for 55,098
tons, Japan for 51,637 tons, and Mexico for 46,723 tons.

·        
September Paris wheat futures are up 1.50 euros to 396.00 at the time this was written.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of wheat for July shipment.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of feed barley for Aug/Sep shipment.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on May 23 for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.

·        
Japan seeks 196,560 tons of food wheat later this week.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on May 11 for Jun/Aug shipment.

·        
Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 40,000 tons of US milling wheat on May 13 for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between June 26 and July 10.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 136,000 tons of rice on May 12 for Sep-Dec arrival.