FI Morning Grain Comments 05/19/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Rain
fell across the US WCB, far western Great Plains and southern Great Plains over the past 24 hours, easing some concerns over lack of topsoil moisture.  A small part of the ECB picked up on rain.  Wheat Quality Council’s annual Kansas tour pegged the northern
Kansas yield at 59.2 bushels per acre versus a 2015-2019 average of 41.9 bu/acre.

 

 

 

Weather

Last
24-hours

 

Next
7 days

 

 

 

World
Weather, Inc.

Today’s
Market Weather Highlights

Not
much change around the world today.

• Safrinha
  corn areas of Brazil will get some rain late this week into next week easing dryness.
  
• Relief
  is also expected to dryness in Canada’s Prairies and to a lesser degree in the northern U.S. Plains.
  
• A
  ridge of high pressure is expected in the eastern United States and over Russia’s New Lands drying out both areas for a while and inducing warmer than usual conditions as well.
  
• Interior
  Southern China remains extremely wet with additional waves of rain expected.
  
• Western
  parts of Russia and neighboring areas are also continuing in a very wet weather mode.
  
• Greater
  rain is still needed in parts of Southeast Asia and across Australia as well. 
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will get rain periodically over the coming week possibly maintaining an environment that might promote a little wet weather disease
• Most
  of the crop will stay favorably rated
• Argentina
  weather will be favorably mixed for wheat planting and summer crop harvesting
• Europe
  will continue favorably moist except in Spain and Portugal where greater rain is needed
• Some
  areas in southeastern Europe are also drying down, but some rain is expected
• Mainland
  areas of Southeast Asia and northern Philippines are still waiting for greater rain
• India’s
  flooding rain from Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be abating over the next couple of days

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
May 19:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• BMO
  Farm to Market Conference, day 1
• International
  Sugar Organization and Datagro to hold New York sugar & ethanol conference
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong

Thursday,
May 20:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• China
  customs to release trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities such as soybeans
• BMO
  Farm to Market Conference, day 2
• Black
  Sea Grain conference
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia
  May 1-20 palm oil export data
• USDA
  total milk, red meat production, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  Suedzucker

Friday,
May 21:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Black
  Sea Grain conference
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macro

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn is setting back after rallying earlier this week from heavy Chinese corn buying. 
  
• Brazil’s
  RGDS should see favorable rain Thursday and Friday while MG, MGDS, Sao Paulo, and Santa Catarina Saturday through Sunday.  Meanwhile for the US, 1-3 inches is expected to fall across eastern KS through MN and WI through the weekend.  Watch for ridging developments
  for the US Midwest later this month.  It may build across the SE then shift west next week. 
  

• Bloomberg
  cattle survey: U.S. Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 21% Y/y & April placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.728 million head.
  
• A
  Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 barrels (965-1003 range) from the previous week and stocks up 120,000 barrels to 19.519 million.
  

 

Export
developments.

• Taiwan’s
  MFIG bought about 65,000 tons of corn from Argentina at $2.6825 a bushel over the December 2021, c&f, for shipment between Aug. 6 and Aug. 25.

 

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybeans are sharply lower led by a lower lead in outside related markets, improving US weather and slow US export developments. 
  
• Reuters:
  CANOLA FUTURES DAILY PRICE LIMIT REVERTS TO $30.00 PER TONNE EFFECTIVE MAY 19, 2021
• Argentina
  sold 18.5 million tons of 2020-21 soybeans through May 12, up 1.2 million tons from the first week of May, and down from 22.3 million tons from mid-May 2020.  The Argentina peso weakened nearly 11 percent this year.  Producers like to store soybeans as an
  inflation hedge.  Around 45 million tons of soybeans could be harvested for the 2020-21 season.  About 50 million tons of corn was produced and 27.9 million tons had been sold, up 3.5 million tons from this time year ago. 
  
• Argentina
  plans to vote on new biofuel legislation this week by Congress then pass to the Senate.  They may cut the admixture mandate by half from current 10 percent, allowing for more SBO available for export. 
  
• Germany’s
  Farm Cooperatives association estimated the Germany rapeseed crop up 3.1% from the  previous year.  Earlier Germany’s federal statistics office reported the area for rapeseed up 3.9% to 991,000 hectares from last year. 
  
• India
  oilmeal exports during the month of April fell to 303,458 tons from 321,435 tons a month earlier but are up from 102,150 tons during April 2020.  Soybean meal exports were only 39,705 tons in April 2021. 
  
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 78 points lower and meal $2.60 lower. 
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were about 10-30 euros lower and meal unchanged to 4 euros lower. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysia
  will leave its export tax rate for crude palm oil unchanged at 8% for June, using a reference price of 4,627.40 ringgit ($1,120.44) per ton for next month.
• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price).
  

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

• CBOT
  wheat prices are lower (4-week low) on past 48-hour rainfall for the US Great Plains and after the Wheat Quality Council’s annual Kansas tour pegged the northern Kansas yield at 59.2 bushels per acre versus a 2015-2019 average of 41.9 bu/acre.
  2019
  was 46.9 for the same area.  Above average conditions were earlier reported for central Kansas, but some fields had rust disease.  2020 tour was cancelled so traders are comparing yields to 2019 and 5-year average. 
  
• Dickinson,
  Saline, Ottawa, Cloud, Mitchell and Osborne counties in north-central Kansas projected an average yield of 60.5 bushels per acre (bpa). The figure compares to the tour’s 2019 average for cars of 41.5 bpa. A second car traveling another calculated an average
  yield of 57.6 bpa after five stops, well above the tour’s 2019 average on the same route of 47.8 bpa.  A third car traveling south of the other two routes, crossing the center of the state, made three stops and calculated yield potential at 54, 74 and 61 bpa.
  (Reuters)
• September
  Paris wheat market basis September was down 3.00 euros at 212.00.   
• Yesterday
  Coceral raised its forecast of the EU-27 soft wheat production to 130.9 tons from 126.6 million estimated in March (10% higher than last season).  Barley was raised to 55.4MMT from 54.5, corn 64.7 from 63.5, and they left rapeseed unchanged at 16.6 million
  tons. 
• Germany’s
  Farm Cooperatives association estimated the Germany 2021 wheat crop up 2.4% from the  previous year. 
  
• Germany’s
  federal statistics office:
• Germany
  winter wheat plantings 2.84 million hectares, up 3% from the previous season.
  
• Winter
  barley 1.26 million hectares, down 3.6% y/y
• Rapeseed
  991,500 hectares, up 3.9% y/y

 

Export
Developments.

• Japan
  received no offers for 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by October 28. 
  
• Jordan
  passed on 120,000 tons of barley. 
• USDA
  seeks 83,000 tons of hard red winter wheat for Africa on May 25 for July 6-16 shipment. 
  
• Japan
  seeks 121,501 tons of food wheat this week.

• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on May 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of rice, optional, origin, for delivery Aug – Sep, on June 1. 

·        
Results awaited:  South
Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp seeks 134,994 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, the United States and Australia, on May 13, for arrival between September 2021 and January 2022.