FI Morning Grain Comments 05/20/21

May 20, 2021







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
reported 1.224 million tons of corn under the 24-hour sales.  Today we are seeing some technical rebound in corn and Chicago wheat.  USDA new-crop corn sales were over 4 million tons.  HRW wheat pressured by prospects of good yields.  Soybeans turned lower
post USDA export sales report. Meal is higher on product spreading.  Palm futures ended more than 4% lower.  Not much change in the weather forecast from yesterday. 

 

 

Weather

 

 

Last
24-hours

 

Next
7 days

 

World
Weather, Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

  • Not
    much change was noted today
  • Canada’s
    Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains and upper U.S. Midwest are still expecting rain in a few notable waves easing some long term dryness
  • The
    U.S. southeastern states will be drying out for much of the coming ten days
  • West
    Texas cotton areas will continue to get spit and spat at with moisture, but no general soaking of rain is expected
  • Safrinha
    corn areas in Brazil is still expecting rain over the next ten days easing dryness and stopping the decline in crop conditions
  • In
    Southeast Asia, there will be a low pressure center southeast of Vietnam that may evolve into a tropical cyclone and then bring much needed heavy rain into Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Thailand’s corn, sugarcane and rice country next week
    • The
      rain in Southeast Asia will also be welcome. 
  • Russia’s
    southern New Lands will continue dry and warm into next week with some relief expected in a few areas over the next few days and more relief likely the last days of May and early June
  • Europe
    weather will be well balanced
  • Southeastern
    China is still getting some flooding rainfall, but in a narrow band only
  • China’s
    North China Plain, Yellow River Basin and northeastern provinces are all seeing a mostly good late spring weather pattern
    • Some
      dryness is being monitored in Liaoning, Hebei and a few immediate neighboring areas
  • Australia
    continues to wait on greater rainfall for wheat, barley and canola areas
  • India’s
    recent rain from Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is coming to an end, but rainfall has been significant in a few areas of the north and extreme west since late last week
    • Crop
      impacts have been small

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
May 20:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China
    customs to release trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities such as soybeans
  • BMO
    Farm to Market Conference, day 2
  • Black
    Sea Grain conference
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia
    May 1-20 palm oil export data
  • USDA
    total milk, red meat production, 3pm
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker

Friday,
May 21:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Black
    Sea Grain conference
  • U.S.
    Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

U
of I: Anticipating USDA Planted Acreage Revisions for Corn and Soybeans in 2021

Irwin,
S. “Anticipating USDA Planted Acreage Revisions for Corn and Soybeans in 2021.”
farmdoc daily (11):81,  Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 19, 2021.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/05/anticipating-usda-planted-acreage-revisions-for-corn-and-soybeans-in-2021.html

 

Macro

US
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook May 31.5 (est 43.0; prev 50.2)

US
Initial Jobless Claims May 15 444K (est 450K; prevR 478K; prev 473K)

–
US Continuing Claims May 8 3.751M (est 3.640M; prevR 3.640M; prev 3.655M)

US
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook May – Components

–
Six Month Index 52.7 (prev 66.6)

–
Capex Index 37.4 (prev 36.7)

–
Employment 19.3 (prev 30.8)

–
Capex Prices Paid 76.8 (prev 69.1)

–
Capex New Orders 32.5 (prev 36.0)

Canada
New Housing Price Index Apr 1.9% (prev 1.1%)

 

USDA
export sales

New-crop
corn sales were likely a record for around this time of year at 4,061,800 MT and were primarily for China (3,740,000 MT) and Mexico (199,800 MT).  Old crop sales for corn and soybeans continue to wane with corn at 277,600 tons (some looking for net reductions)
and soybeans at 84.2 million tons.  Note current crop year weekly corn exports were a marketing year high of 2,239,900 MT.  New-crop soybean sales were only 96,000 tons.  Soybean meal sales were 189,400 tons and soybean oil sales were a net reduction of 4,500
tons.  Old crop wheat sales were good at 121,000 tons as we wind down the year, and new-crop was 317,700 tons, an improvement from the previous week.  Beef net export sales were a marketing year high of 56,900 MT with bulk of countries included the Netherlands
(33,700 MT), China (9,200 MT), and Japan (5,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT).  Pork net export sales were 19,000 MT.  

 

 

 

Corn

 

Export
developments.

 

 

Soybeans

  • Malaysian
    palm oil: (uses settle price)    .

 

Export
Developments

  • None
    reported

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of rice, optional, origin, for delivery Aug – Sep, on June 1. 

·        
Results awaited:  South
Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp seeks 134,994 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, the United States and Australia, on May 13, for arrival between September 2021 and January 2022.

 

USDA
export sales

New-crop
corn sales were likely a record for around this time of year at 4,061,800 MT and were primarily for China (3,740,000 MT) and Mexico (199,800 MT).  Old crop sales for corn and soybeans continue to wane with corn at 277,600 tons (some looking for net reductions)
and soybeans at 84.2 million tons.  Note current crop year weekly corn exports were a marketing year high of 2,239,900 MT.  New-crop soybean sales were only 96,000 tons.  Soybean meal sales were 189,400 tons and soybean oil sales were a net reduction of 4,500
tons.  Old crop wheat sales were good at 121,000 tons as we wind down the year, and new-crop was 317,700 tons, an improvement from the previous week.  Beef net export sales were a marketing year high of 56,900 MT with bulk of countries included the Netherlands
(33,700 MT), China (9,200 MT), and Japan (5,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT).  Pork net export sales were 19,000 MT.  

 

 

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 7-May 13, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 121,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Indonesia (66,500 MT, including 6,500 MT switched from Vietnam), Nigeria (60,100 MT, including
60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), Mexico (54,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Nicaragua (30,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and the Dominican Republic (15,300 MT, including 14,600 MT switched from
unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (118,900 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 317,700 MT were primarily for unknown destinations (123,300 MT), Japan (60,800 MT), Mexico (39,600 MT), the Philippines (33,000 MT),
and Taiwan (30,300 MT).  Exports of 568,600 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (110,900 MT), Nigeria (106,100 MT), China (68,200 MT), South Korea (56,900
MT), and Japan (55,200 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 63,900 MT is for Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 277,600 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (294,100 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 12,600
MT), Japan (65,300 MT, including 7,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,600 MT), South Korea (64,600 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,400 MT), Venezuela (41,500 MT, including 16,500 MT switched
from unknown destinations), and Panama (21,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (195,300 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 4,061,800 MT primarily for China (3,740,000 MT) and Mexico (199,800 MT), were offset by reductions for
Nicaragua (31,200 MT).  Exports of 2,239,900 MT–a marketing-year high– were up 45 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,009,700 MT), Mexico (467,100 MT), Japan (310,900 MT),
Colombia (113,000 MT), and Israel (111,200 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 268,500 MT is for unknown destinations (189,500 MT) and South Korea (79,000 MT). 

Late
Reporting: 
For 2020/2021, exports totaling 16,500 MT of corn were reported late to Venezuela.

Barley: 
No
net sales were reported for the week. 
Exports of 600
MT were up
68
percent from the previous week and 40
percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination
was to South Korea.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 119,800
MT for 2020/2021 were up 69
percent from the previous week
and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were
for
China (119,800 MT, including decreases of 5,200 MT).  Total net sales for 2021/2022, of 53,000 MT were for China. 
Exports of 59,800
MT were down
68 percent from the previous week
and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination
was to China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 96,200 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 98 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (42,300 MT), Venezuela (28,500 MT), Haiti (18,200 MT), Canada (3,400 MT), and Saudi Arabia
(1,800 MT).  Total net sales for 2021/2022, of 700 MT were for Guatemala.  Exports of 69,400 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Venezuela (56,300 MT), South Korea
(3,100 MT), Mexico (2,500 MT), Canada (2,200 MT), and Japan (1,200 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 84,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 11 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (57,800 MT, including 42,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), Egypt
(55,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (25,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (12,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (12,200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily
for unknown destinations (101,300 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 96,000 MT were primarily for Mexico (47,500 MT) and unknown destinations (47,500 MT).  Exports of 335,600 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (103,400 MT), Japan (67,600 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), Indonesia (30,900 MT), and South Korea (26,000 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Late
Reporting:
For 2020/2021, exports totaling 6,000 MT of soybeans were reported late to Venezuela.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 189,400 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Canada (41,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Ecuador (30,000 MT), Morocco (25,000 MT),  Guatemala
(23,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), and Mexico (21,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Nicaragua (5,000 MT) and Belgium (800 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 77,600 MT were for Mexico (24,900 MT), Honduras
(15,100 MT), El Salvador (14,600 MT), Guatemala (14,000 MT), and Costa Rica (9,000 MT).  Exports of 96,200 MT were down 51 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (28,100 MT), Canada (18,500
MT), Guatemala (14,400 MT), Morocco (6,500 MT), and Honduras (5,100 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales reductions of 4,500 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing year low– were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Canada (800 MT) and Mexico (100 MT), were more than offset by reductions for Nicaragua
(2,200 MT), El Salvador (2,100 MT), Trinidad and Tobago (700 MT), and Guatemala (500 MT).  Exports of 14,200 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (8,000
MT) and Venezuela (5,000 MT). 

Cotton: 
Net sales of 108,000 RB for 2020/2021 were up 99 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (24,800 RB, including decreases of 9,500 RB), Turkey (23,300 RB, including decreases of 1,300 RB),
Vietnam (20,800 RB, including decreases of 1,800 RB), Pakistan (14,300 RB), and Taiwan (6,100 RB), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (3,500 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 21,800 RB were primarily for Turkey (6,600 RB), Peru (5,600 RB), El Salvador
(4,800 RB), Pakistan (2,200 RB), and Thailand (1,400 RB).  Exports of 345,400 RB were up 25 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (101,100 RB), China (59,400 RB), Pakistan (43,000
RB), Turkey (37,000 RB), and Mexico (20,800 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 8,100 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India (4,700 RB), Thailand (1,100 RB), Turkey (900 RB),
Vietnam (800 RB), and Peru (400 RB), were offset by reductions for Japan (300 RB) and the United Kingdom (200 RB).  Total net sales for 2021/2022
of
100 RB were for Thailand.  Exports of 7,700 RB were down 60 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (1,600 RB), Austria (1,300 RB), Vietnam (1,200 RB), China (900 RB), and Peru
(500 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 17,500 RB is for Vietnam (9,500 RB), China (7,600 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins:  Net sales of 246,000
pieces for 2021 were down
36 percent from the previous week and
23
percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China
(164,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 3,600 pieces), South Korea (46,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,700 pieces), Mexico (19,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 900 pieces), Thailand (11,400 whole cattle hides, including
decreases of 700 pieces), and Taiwan (3,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (400 pieces) and Spain (100 pieces).  Total net sales
reductions
of 300
kip
skins were for Belgium. 
Exports of 329,700
pieces were down
23 percent from the previous week and
18
percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (180,300
pieces), South Korea (65,000
pieces), Thailand (25,700
pieces), Mexico (22,300
pieces), and Brazil
(9,900 pieces).  Exports of 2,600 kip skins were to Belgium.

Net
sales of 48,300
wet blues for 2021 were down
27 percent from the previous week
and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for
Italy
(21,400 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), China (8,900 unsplit), Vietnam (8,800 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Mexico (4,100 unsplit and 100 grain splits, including decreases of 1,000 unsplit), and Brazil (3,600 unsplit), were offset
by reductions for Thailand (300 unsplit).  Exports of
140,500
wet blues were down
2 percent from the previous week,
but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to
Italy
(38,500 unsplit and 9,000 grain splits), Vietnam (35,100 unsplit), China (31,400 unsplit), Thailand (16,700 unsplit), and Mexico (2,600 unsplit and 1,900 grain split). 
Net sales of 118,100
splits resulting in increases for Taiwan
(129,000 pounds) and China (1,400 pounds, including decreases of 4,000 pounds), were
offset by reductions for Vietnam
(12,300 pounds).  Exports of 522,900
pounds were to Vietnam (278,200
pounds) and China
(244,700
pounds). 

Beef: 
Net
sales of 56,900 MT reported for 2021–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Netherlands (33,700 MT), China (9,200 MT), Japan (5,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT),
South Korea (4,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Taiwan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Belgium (100 MT).  Exports of 53,100 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the
prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Netherlands (33,700 MT), Japan (5,900 MT), South Korea (5,100 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Taiwan (1,400 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 19,000
MT reported for 2021 were up
29 percent from the previous week,
but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for
Mexico
(8,300 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Japan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (3,100 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Canada (1,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), were offset
by reduction primarily for Australia (200 MT) and New Zealand (100 MT). 
Exports of 34,600
MT were down
17 percent from the previous week
and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to
China
(11,100 MT), Mexico (10,600 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT).

May
20, 2021                                                    1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  5/13/2021

FAX 202-690-3275

 





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR

AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR

AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

32.0

584.2

1,170.2

130.3

8,132.3

8,768.4

155.1

1,058.4

   SRW    

39.4

186.3

193.8

61.6

1,689.0

2,254.9

13.3

781.0

   HRS     

47.7

685.3

1,185.7

237.4

7,066.2

6,688.9

68.8

973.5

   WHITE   

1.8

569.9

742.1

139.3

6,055.2

4,567.8

79.5

756.0

   DURUM  

0.0

48.6

100.8

0.0

631.8

883.3

1.0

8.4

     TOTAL

121.0

2,074.3

3,392.6

568.6

23,574.6

23,163.3

317.7

3,577.3

BARLEY

0.0

2.1

9.8

0.6

26.5

40.3

0.0

22.2

CORN

277.6

20,733.8

12,804.5

2,239.9

47,287.4

26,606.6

4,061.8

8,936.6

SORGHUM

119.8

1,581.3

1,282.8

59.8

5,767.8

2,389.7

53.0

1,244.0

SOYBEANS

84.2

4,513.6

6,406.7

335.6

56,949.7

34,890.4

96.0

7,022.0

SOY MEAL

189.4

2,092.3

2,250.5

96.2

7,797.2

7,586.6

77.6

560.3

SOY OIL

-4.5

58.0

296.3

14.2

607.0

787.8

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

58.9

260.5

262.2

57.8

1,359.1

1,186.7

0.7

0.7

   M S RGH

12.0

16.9

37.2

0.5

24.0

59.2

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.1

2.7

20.5

0.2

36.4

46.4

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.4

45.4

56.9

0.5

110.2

59.2

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

19.9

44.4

66.2

3.3

531.7

760.6

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

4.8

219.0

178.9

7.0

454.2

531.8

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

96.2

588.8

622.0

69.4

2,515.6

2,643.9

0.7

0.7

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

108.0

3,468.9

5,481.1

345.4

11,906.5

10,810.1

21.8

1,828.9

   PIMA

8.1

169.1

136.5

7.7

615.6

410.2

0.1

4.0

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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