FI Morning Grain Comments 05/21/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

End
of week profit taking in corn and ongoing selling in the soybean complex & wheat is seen this morning.  WTI crude, up $1.40, could limit losses. China is expected to wind down their recent buying spree of new-crop US corn soon.  There were no 24-hour sales
this morning.  Rains for the US over the past workweek benefited the WCB the most while parts of the ECB were left without rain.  Weather for the US is mostly unchanged from yesterday.  Offshore values are mostly lower on Friday and for the week leading the
CBOT soybean products lower.   News is light. 

 

Weather

 

Last
24-hours

 

Last
7-days

 

Next
7 days

 

World
Weather, Inc.

WORLD
MARKET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

• Two
  tropical cyclones are expected to evolve this weekend into early next week impacting southeastern Asia
• The
  first will bring heavier rain to Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia benefiting coffee, sugarcane, rice and other crops
• The
  second storm is expected in the eastern Bay of Bengal that will move to the upper east India coast during mid-week next week producing some property and agricultural damage
• Relief
  from dryness has begun in a part of Canada’s Prairies and that will continue into next week, but the northern U.S. Plains’ relief may be more limited and greater moisture will be needed
• Safrinha
  corn areas of Brazil will get rain in the coming week easing long term dryness, but it comes a little too late for changes in production
• Russia’s
  southern New Lands will remain very warm and dry for the next two weeks
• Southeastern
  U.S. will dry down for ten days. 
• Dryness
  is already a concern in North Carolina and Virginia as well as a few areas in South Carolina
• Conditions
  will worsen as temperatures turn warmer and rain is lacking
• West
  Texas rainfall is expected to be erratic and light, but still occurs periodically over the next ten days
• Most
  U.S. corn and soybean production areas and winter wheat areas will continue favorably moist
• Some
  drying would be welcome in the U.S. Plains
• Western
  Australia rain potentials are improving for the second week of the outlook
• Argentina,
  India and Europe weather will remain mostly favorable
• Southern
  China continues too wet, but is improving in some areas
• Northern
  China weather is great for field progress and crop development

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
May 21:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Black
  Sea Grain conference
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Monday,
May 24:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop plantings – soybeans, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• U.S.
  cold storage data — pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  France, Germany, Argentina, Canada

Tuesday,
May 25:

• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• Malaysia
  May 1-25 palm oil export data

Wednesday,
May 26:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil’s
  Unica releases cane crush, sugar output data
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand

Thursday,
May 27:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Brazil
  orange crop forecast for 2021-22

Friday,
May 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macro

Canada
Retail Sales (MM) Mar: 3.6% (est 2.3%, prev 4.8%) 

Canada
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Mar: 4.3% (est 2.3%, prev 4.8%)

IMF
Backs $50Bln Plan To Help World Escape COVID Crises

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn is lower following the follow through selling in the soybean complex and favorable start of the US growing season.   There were no USDA 24-hour sales, ending a weeklong, USDA reported, buying spree by China.  They secured over 10 million tons of new-crop
  US corn month to date. 
• News
  is light. 
• Rains
  for the US over the past workweek benefited the WCB the most while parts of the ECB were left without rain. 
  
• Selected
  parts of Brazil should see rain today through Sunday.
• BA
  Grains Exchange reported Argentina producers harvested 28% of their 2020-21 soybean crop.  Production was unchanged at 46MMT. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

 

 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48056&src=email

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybean complex is lower and for the week futures are down sharply in a weeklong risk off trade. 
  
• China
  is expected to wind down their recent buying spree of new-crop US corn soon and they may turn their attention to securing new-crop soybeans but at the moment should have sufficient oilseed stocks for crush after intaking a large number of Brazilian soybeans
  and canola last month into FH May.  Brazil premiums are currently more attractive versus US soybeans and should stay that way until mid-September when US new-crop becomes available.
  
• Offshore
  values are mostly lower on Friday and for the week leading the CBOT soybean products lower.   News is light. 
  
• There
  is new US legislation to introduce a tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel of up to $2.00 for every gallon produced.  The credit would expire at the end of 2031. 
  https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/us-lawmakers-propose-tax-credit-sustainable-aviation-fuel-2021-05-20/  
  Here’s the bill’s direct language: https://schneider.house.gov/sites/schneider.house.gov/files/Sustainable%20Skies%20Act.pdf
  
• BA
  Grains Exchange reported Argentina producers harvested 85% of their 2020-21 soybean crop with an average yield of 2.75/tons per hectare.  Production was unchanged at 43MMT. 
  
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 13 points higher (220 lower for the week to date) and meal $2.10 lower ($3.10 lower for the week). 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were about 10-13 euros lower and meal 3-6 euros lower. 
  
• China:
  

• Cargo
  surveyor SGS reported month to date May 20 Malaysian palm exports at 865,236 tons, 38,328 tons above the same period a month ago or up 4.6%, and 52,924 tons above the same period a year ago or up 6.5%. Note May 1-15 were up 22%. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price). 
  Down 11% for the week on India COVID-19 demand concerns and higher production. 
  

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

• Lower
  trade in wheat in part to favorable yields survey for KS and stable French wheat conditions after France saw rain over the past couple of weeks. 
  
• The
  Philippines bought 40,000 tons of Australian feed wheat. 
• French
  soft wheat conditions were 79% good/excellent for the week ending May 17, unchanged over the previous two weeks.  Winter and spring barley were down one point from previous week. 
  
• Wheat
  Quality Council’s annual Kansas tour pegged the KS wheat yield at 58.1 bushels per acre (bpa), a record high for the state if realized (using USDA data), and well above USDA’s working 48 bushels per acre for 2021.  Production was pegged at 365 million bushels,
  above USDA’s 331.2 million working estimate and 281.3 million in 2020.
• September
  Paris wheat market basis September was down 2 euros at 211.75.
• Russia’s
  Grain Exporters Union looks for 2021 grain production at 127.4 million tons, including 80.7 million tons of wheat, down from 133.5 million tons year ago (including 85.9 million tons of wheat).
• Russia’s
  AgMin sees grain exports at 51 million tons for 2021-22, up from 48MMT this season. 
  
• (Reuters)
  – Ukrainian grain exports have fallen by about 23.3% to 40.85 million tons so far this season, which runs from July 2020 to June 2021, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.  The exports include 15.6 million tons of wheat, 20.4 million tons of corn and
  4.14 million tons of barley, the data showed.

 

Export
Developments.

• The
  Philippines bought 25,000 tons of Australian animal feed wheat and 15,000 tons of Australian feed barley.  The wheat was bought at $323 a ton c&f for shipment in the second half of August.
  
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat on May 26 for Oct-Nov shipment. 
• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on May 30. 
• USDA
  seeks 83,000 tons of hard red winter wheat for Africa on May 25 for July 6-16 shipment. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of rice, optional, origin, for delivery Aug – Sep, on June 1. 

·        
Results awaited:  South
Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp seeks 134,994 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, the United States and Australia, on May 13, for arrival between September 2021 and January 2022.