FI Morning Grain Comments 05/24/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

A
rally in palm is supporting soybean oil. Nearby meal is higher and soybeans higher. USD is slightly lower and WTI was mixed at the time this was written. Wheat is seeing follow through buying over production concerns and corn lower from SA developments. China
signed an agreement with Brazil to import corn. They may soon agree to import soybean meal. Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of wheat. Indonesia is still looking at changing rules to ensure domestic supplies of cooking oil. Overnight they announced replacing
its subsidy on bulk cooking oil to a domestic price obligation program. Offshore values were leading SBO 51 points higher and meal $2.10 short ton higher. Malaysian palm oil ended 221 ringgit per ton higher at 6,482 and cash was up $40/ton at $1,545 ton. China
September soybean futures were up 0.9%, meal down 2.0%, SBO 0.2% higher and China palm oil up 1.0%.

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
May 24:

• Grain
  & Maritime Days conference in Istanbul, May 24-25
• Russian
  Meat & Feed Industry conference in Moscow
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data during the week (tentative)

Wednesday,
May 25:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  May 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Thursday,
May 26:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  releases World Sugar Markets and Trade outlook
• Russian
  grain forum starts in Sochi
• HOLIDAY:
  France, Germany, Indonesia

Friday,
May 27:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

JPMorgan
Cut Chinese GDP Forecast To -5.4% AR From -1.5%

Shanghai
Reports 422 New Asymptomatic Coronavirus Cases, 58 Symptomatic Cases For May 23

 

Corn

·        
Corn is lower on US export uncertainty for last half 2022. Argentina raised their export cap and now Brazil has some leverage.

·        
China signed an agreement with Brazil to import corn. They may soon agree to import soybean meal.

·        
We heard China bought Brazil corn for September/October shipment.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Turkey’s TMO seeks 175,000 tons of feed corn on May 26 for shipment between June 7 and June 30.

 

Soybeans

·        
Indonesian palm oil export uncertainty rallied palm oil futures overnight, spilling into SBO. Nearby meal rebounded and soybeans are higher. News is light.

·        
China may soon agree to import soybean meal from Brazil.

·        
Indonesia is still looking at changing rules to ensure domestic supplies of cooking oil. Overnight they announced replacing its subsidy on bulk cooking oil to a domestic price obligation program.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 51 points higher and meal $2.10 short ton higher. 

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oil prices were unchanged to lower from this time yesterday morning and meal mixed.  

·        
Malaysian palm oil ended 221 ringgit per ton higher at 6,482 and cash was up $40/ton at $1,545 ton.

·        
China September soybean futures were up 0.9%, meal down 2.0%, SBO 0.2% higher and China palm oil up 1.0%.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to sell another 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on May 27.

·        
The USDA seeks 5,710 tons of packaged veg oil for use in export programs for shipping July 1-25 on June 1, with notice following day.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures extended gains on technical buying and US production concerns after USDA reported little change (all categories) in the US winter wheat rating.

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat reserves for 4.5 months. They procured 2.7 million tons from their local harvest, out of 5 million they aim for.

·        
September Paris wheat was up 2.25 at 428.25 euros a ton at the time this was written.

 

Export Developments.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of wheat for Aug/Sep shipment.

·        
Pakistan seeks 500,000 tons of wheat on May 25. Bulk shipment is sought to Pakistan in June to July 2022.

·        
Jordan seeks on 120,000 tons of barley on May 26 for Aug/Sep shipment.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on May 29 for shipment within 40 days.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported