FI Morning Grain Comments 05/24/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

UK
inflation remains high, and they may increase rates again. Outside markets are lending support to soybean oil which is booting soybean price. Soybean meal was mixed earlier on lack of direction. News was very thin overnight. Corn is higher from follow through
buying amid US weather calling for net drying. Wheat is lower on chatter of US wheat imports off the east coast and Black Sea competition. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 81 points this morning and meal $0.90 short ton higher.
A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 10,000 thousand barrels to 981k (990-1010k range) from the previous week and stocks down 213,000 barrels to 23.978 million.

 

Fund
estimates as of May 23

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

 

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
May 25:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia’s
  May 1-25 palm oil exports
• US
  poultry slaughter, red meat output, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  IOI
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Friday,
May 26:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• EARNINGS:
  Select Harvests
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn is higher from follow through buying amid the weather outlook calling for net drying across the US Midwest. At this point, we see no threat of US corn getting planting in a timely manner, and expect initial US corn conditions
to be reported near or above average.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 10,000 thousand barrels to 981k (990-1010 range) from the previous week and stocks down 213,000 barrels to 23.978 million.

 

 

Export
developments.

• Taiwan’s
  MFIG bought 65,000 tons of corn from Brazil at 139 cents over the September contract for Aug 5-Aug 24 shipment.
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Outside markets are lending support to soybean oil which is giving soybeans a lift. Soybean meal is mixed from lack of direction.  News is about the same and overnight there was little developments. Expect the trade to focus on
NA weather.

·        
Third month (Aug) Malaysia palm futures increased 29 ringgit to 3407, rebounding from a three week low, and Aug. cash decreased $2.50 to $802.50/ton.

·        
China May soybean futures were up 0.6%, meal down 0.3%, SBO down 0.1% and palm oil futures down 0.3%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were down 7.50-10.00 from this time yesterday morning and meal 2-4 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 81 points this morning and meal $0.90 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is lower on chatter of US wheat imports off the east coast and Black Sea competition.

·        
US spring wheat planting progress is running behind normal for some selected locations that have already passed the insurance deadline but we don’t think this will deter producers from getting the rest of the crop in. Prices still
remain favorable. 

·        
September Paris wheat are down 4.00 euros to 222.75 per tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Taiwan seeks 56,000 tons of US wheat on May 26 for LF July shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported