FI Morning Grain Comments 06/03/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 101,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR June 3, 2022

• West
  Texas received some needed moisture with some of the dryland areas getting more than 1.00 inch of moisture
  
• The
  precipitation bolstered topsoil moisture and improved the short term outlook for planting, emergence and establishment
  
• follow
  up rain is expected tonight into Saturday morning and then drier weather will occur along with hotter temperatures for a few days thereafter
• Canada’s
  central and eastern Prairies, northern and eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota will benefit from dry weather through early next week 
• Frost
  occurred this morning in a part of the eastern Canada Prairies, but not permanent crop damage resulted
• Rain
  is expected in Southern Alberta, Montana and crop areas in South Dakota later this weekend into early next week 
  
• The
  moisture will bring some needed relief to crop areas that have been quite dry for an extended period of time
• No
  relief from drought is expected in east-central Alberta or west-central into south-central Saskatchewan
• A
  good mix of weather will occur in the U.S. central Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, although net drying is expected in the southeastern states
• Tropical
  Storm Alex is forming in the Gulf of Mexico and will move over southern Florida this weekend – no crop damage is expected in citrus or sugarcane areas
• No
  changes in South America’s outlook overnight
• Rain
  is expected Tuesday through Thursday in western and southern Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul resulting in a short term boost in topsoil moisture and a benefit will come to cotton
• Safrinha
  corn will not benefit from the rain because the crop is too far advanced
• Argentina
  will continue dry biased for the next ten days in western wheat areas
• Southern
  Brazil will remain wet
• Europe
  is still expecting a good distribution of rain in the coming week; this is especially true for France, Germany and the U.K.
• Western
  and northern Russia will stay plenty moist for the next two weeks
• Some
  moisture is expected soon in Russia’s Southern Region and southeastern Ukraine bringing some relief to recent drying
• India’s
  rainfall will remain below normal through the next ten days
• Western
  Australia will get some rain in the second week of the outlook
• China
  will continue excessively wet in the south
• Relief
  to dryness is expected in the North China Plain next week and into the following week, but greater rain will still be needed 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
June 3:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UK

Monday,
June 6:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop planting data for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton; winter wheat condition and harvesting, 4pm
• US
  cotton, corn, soybean and spring wheat conditions, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Germany, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand
• Malaysia’s
  June 1-5 palm oil export data

Tuesday,
June 7:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vietnam’s
  customs department releases May export data for coffee, rice and rubber
• Russian
  Grain Union’s International Grain Round conference, Gelendzhik, Russia, day 1
• International
  Grains Council conference, day 1
• Global
  Food Summit in Munich, day 1
• Purdue
  Agriculture Sentiment
• Abares
  agricultural commodities outlook
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• France
  agriculture ministry releases crop estimates

Wednesday,
June 8:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases data on area, yield and output of corn and soybeans
• Russian
  Grain Union’s International Grain Round conference, Gelendzhik, Russia, day 2
• International
  Grains Council conference, day 2
• Global
  Food Summit in Munich, day 2
• France
  AgriMer monthly grain outlook

Thursday,
June 9:

• China’s
  first batch of May trade data, including soybeans, edible oils, rubber and meat imports
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Ecosperity
  sustainability conference, Singapore
• Russian
  Grain Union’s International Grain Round conference, Gelendzhik, Russia, day 3

Friday,
June 10:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data for May output, exports and stockpiles
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  June 1-10 palm oil export data
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Nonfarm Payrolls May: 390K (est 320K; prev 428K; prevR 436K)

US
Unemployment Rate May: 3.6% (est 3.5%; prev 3.6%)

–
US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) May: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 0.3%)

–
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) May: 5.2% (est 5.2%; prev 5.5%)

US
Private Payrolls May: 333K (est 302K; prev 406K; prevR 405K)

–
US Manufacturing Payrolls May: 18K (est 39K; prev 55K; prevR 61K)

–
US Average Weekly Hours May: 34.6 (est 34.6; prev 34.6)

–
US Participation Rate May: 62.3% (est 62.3%; prev 62.2%)

US
ISM Services Index May: 55.9 (est 56.5; prev 57.1)

 

Corn

·        
US corn futures are higher in part to unwinding of soybean/wheat spreads against con.

·        
Speculation China bought US corn is supportive. China hog margins have improved.

·        
The USD was 29 points higher at the time this was written.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans
are lower on profit taking, and products are following. Higher corn leads us to believe there is positioning in recent soybean/corn spreads.

·        
There is nothing bullish we see in the near term. Planting progress should be aggressive across the upper Great Plains with several days of clear skies.

·        
China is on holiday

 

Export
Developments

·        
China will offer another 500,000 tons of soybeans out of reserves on June 10.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures are lower on end of week selling amid good US and European (west) weather.

·        
We look for a 3 percent US winter wheat harvest to be reported as of Sunday, about average.

·        
France soft wheat crop conditions: 67% of the soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition in the week to May 30, down from 69% the previous week, FranceAgriMer.

·        
September EU wheat futures were down 7.50 euros per ton at 375 euros.

 

US
Wheat Associates

 

Export
Developments.

·        
None reported

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

Export
Sales

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 20-26, 2022.

Wheat:  Net
sales 700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 98 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Venezuela (7,000 MT), the Philippines (3,000 MT), Mexico (2,500 MT, including decreases of 700
MT), Taiwan (2,000 MT), and Italy (1,500 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (15,100 MT), Peru (1,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (500 MT), and unknown destinations (500 MT).  Net sales of 363,500 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for South Korea (108,400
MT), Thailand (60,000 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), Mexico (41,900 MT), and Colombia (35,200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (94,500 MT).  Exports of 372,700 MT were up 25 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (82,400 MT), Nigeria (78,700 MT), the Philippines (65,000 MT), Taiwan (42,000 MT), and Peru (33,100 MT). 

Late Reporting: For 2021/2022, net sales and exports totaling 7,000 MT of hard red
winter wheat was reported late for Venezuela. 

Corn:  Net sales of 185,800 MT for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous
week, but down 52 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Saudi Arabia (74,800 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (70,200 MT, including 47,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 16,300
MT), South Korea (65,500 MT, including decreases of 5,300 MT), China (62,800 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,200 MT), and Mexico (59,300 MT, including decreases of 89,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily
for unknown destinations (284,900 MT).  Net sales of 48,700 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Colombia (30,000 MT), Honduras (8,700 MT), Guatemala (7,000 MT), and unknown destinations (3,000 MT).  Exports of 1,579,700 MT were down 13 percent from the previous
week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (288,600 MT), Japan (283,100 MT), China (268,800 MT), Colombia (162,800 MT), and South Korea (131,500 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, options were exercised
to export 65,000 MT to South Korea from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 278,300 MT is for unknown destinations (235,000 MT), Italy (34,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 35,400 MT
is for Italy.

Barley: No
net sales or exports were reported for the week.

Sorghum:  Net sales of 32,700 MT for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous
week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (65,700 MT, including 62,800 MT switched from unknown destinations) and Eritrea (30,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (63,000 MT).  Exports of 136,000
MT were down 29 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China.

Rice:  Net sales of 20,500 MT for 2021/2022 were down 31 percent from the previous
week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Honduras (8,000 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), and El Salvador (300 MT).  Exports of 63,300 MT were up noticeably
from the previous week and up 95 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (30,500 MT), Haiti (15,100 MT), Japan (13,200 MT), South Korea (2,800 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT).

Export for Own Account: For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans:  Net sales of 111,600 MT for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down
60 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Netherlands (68,400 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Egypt (54,000 MT), Mexico (50,900 MT), Colombia
(29,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Tunisia (27,100 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (72,200 MT), Italy (46,000 MT), and unknown destinations (29,300
MT).  Net sales of 284,000 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for unknown destinations (105,000 MT), Pakistan (66,000 MT), Egypt (65,000 MT), and Mexico (44,000 MT).  Exports of 406,300 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior
4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Egypt (118,000 MT), China (70,000 MT), the Netherlands (68,400 MT), Japan (35,100 MT), and Mexico (27,200 MT). 

Export for Own Account: For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 29,900 MT were
reported for Canada.  Exports for own account totaling 57,500 MT to Canada were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 63,500 MT, all Canada.

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 188,900 MT for 2021/2022 were up 18 percent
from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (95,800 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), the Philippines (45,500 MT, including decreases of 500
MT), Mexico (24,500 MT, including decreases of 5,300 MT), Canada (10,100 MT, including decreases of 4,500 MT), and Ecuador (8,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (22,900 MT) and El Salvador (3,400 MT).  Total net sales of
100 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Honduras.  Exports of 169,000 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Colombia (61,400 MT), Canada (25,500 MT), the Dominican Republic
(25,300 MT), Mexico (20,900 MT), and Venezuela (15,400 MT).

Soybean Oil:  Net sales of 4,200 MT for 2021/2022 were down 32 percent from the previous
week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Venezuela (4,500 MT), Mexico (4,000 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (6,300 MT).  Exports of 11,100 MT were up noticeably from the previous week,
but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Guatemala (5,700 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT), Honduras (1,100 MT), and Canada (500 MT).

Cotton:  Net sales of 354,200 RB for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous
week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (144,700 RB, including decreases of 5,400 RB), Vietnam (87,100 RB, including 1,400 RB switched from South Korea and decreases of 4,300 RB), Bangladesh (43,100 RB), Turkey (33,000 RB, including
decreases of 400 RB), and India (24,500 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from Honduras, 1,300 RB switched from China, 1,000 RB switched from Malaysia, and decreases of 800 RB), were offset by reductions for Honduras (1,800 RB) and South Korea (600 RB).  Net
sales of 109,100 RB for 2022/2023 primarily for China (88,200 RB), Mexico (12,400 RB), Turkey (4,400 RB), Indonesia (3,200 RB), and Thailand (2,800 RB), were offset by reductions for Honduras (2,600 RB) and Costa Rica (700 RB).  Exports of 484,200 RB–a marketing-year
high–were up 52 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (160,500 RB), Vietnam (93,100 RB), Turkey (83,400 RB), Pakistan (56,000 RB), and Bangladesh (15,000 RB).  Net sales of Pima
totaling 400 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 91 percent from the previous week and 87 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases for Egypt (400 RB) and Indonesia (200 RB switched from Japan), were offset by reductions for Japan (200 RB).  Net sales
of 1,200 RB for 2022/2023 were reported for India (900 RB) and Indonesia (300 RB).  Exports of 14,800 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (6,500 RB), China
(3,800 RB), Egypt (900 RB), Bangladesh (800 RB), and Peru (700 RB). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, options were exercised to export 4,900 RB
primarily to Vietnam (4,600 RB) from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 35,600 RB is for Vietnam (32,800 RB) and Pakistan (2,800 RB). 

Exports for Own Account: For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance is 100 RB, all Vietnam.

Hides and Skins:  Net
sales of 352,100 pieces for 2022 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (252,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 9,400 pieces), South Korea (48,800 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 900 pieces), Mexico (25,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 2,300 pieces), Brazil (25,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 800 pieces), and Colombia (2,800 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions primarily
for Indonesia (4,200 pieces) and Thailand (800 pieces).  Exports of 419,100 pieces were down 1 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (207,800 pieces), Thailand (61,700
pieces), Mexico (60,700 pieces), South Korea (49,700 pieces), and Indonesia (14,700 pieces). 

Net sales of 188,700 wet blues for 2022 were up 71 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (60,400 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), China (60,400 unsplit), Vietnam (52,200 unsplit), Mexico (10,300 unsplit), and Thailand (6,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Portugal (800
grain splits).  Exports of 97,800 wet blues were down 29 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (35,000 unsplit), China (26,200 unsplit), Italy (21,400 unsplit and 200 grain
splits), Portugal (5,600 grain splits), and Mexico (3,500 unsplit).  Net sales of 1,108,600 splits were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Vietnam (971,100 pounds) and China (129,600 pounds,
including decreases of 1,400 pounds).  Exports of 483,600 pounds were up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destination was primarily to Vietnam (400,000 pounds). 

Beef:  Net sales of 17,900 MT for 2022 were down 11 percent from the previous week
and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (6,000 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), China (4,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), and Canada (900 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (100 MT).  Total net sales of 200 MT for 2023 were reported for Japan.  Exports of 19,200 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The
destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,400 MT), Japan (4,900 MT), China (2,700 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). 

Pork:  Net sales of 31,900 MT for 2022 were down 13 percent from the previous week,
but up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (13,000 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (9,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (1,900 MT, including
decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT).  Exports of 31,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,200 MT), China (4,900 MT),
Japan (3,700 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  5/26/2022   

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	1.5	368.4	393.7	123.9	7,106.5	8,331.4	57.4	815.2
SRW	2.2	112.3	126.6	28.4	2,760.0	1,743.7	50.1	752.4
HRS	-3.7	303.0	424.6	173.7	5,218.9	7,337.4	170.9	1,077.9
WHITE	0.6	122.9	324.6	46.2	3,248.4	6,280.8	85.1	657.8
DURUM	0.0	0.0	28.6	0.5	196.3	653.8	0.0	64.4
TOTAL	0.7	906.6	1,298.0	372.7	18,530.1	24,347.1	363.5	3,367.6
BARLEY	0.0	5.2	2.6	0.0	15.3	26.8	0.0	8.6
CORN	185.8	12,941.4	17,843.5	1,579.7	46,300.3	51,264.8	48.7	5,686.8
SORGHUM	32.7	1,122.1	1,067.7	136.0	5,672.0	6,167.6	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	111.6	9,930.0	4,071.0	406.3	49,666.5	57,454.2	284.0	12,102.1
SOY MEAL	188.9	2,701.6	2,034.2	169.0	8,008.4	8,270.4	0.1	411.3
SOY OIL	4.2	104.6	50.5	11.1	571.0	617.3	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	11.2	123.9	220.8	29.4	1,139.4	1,414.3	0.0	6.0
M S RGH	0.0	7.5	16.1	0.5	13.4	24.8	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	5.2	13.5	0.1	48.6	37.1	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	9.9	45.1	0.0	77.6	111.2	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	8.2	80.3	59.5	16.5	682.7	539.6	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.0	169.5	185.2	16.7	349.8	497.4	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	20.5	396.2	540.1	63.3	2,311.6	2,624.4	0.0	6.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	354.2	5,150.1	3,130.8	484.2	10,102.9	12,596.6	109.1	3,259.8
PIMA	0.4	84.5	158.1	14.8	392.0	646.7	1.2	52.8