FI Morning Grain Comments 06/24/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.
 

 

WASHINGTON,
June 24, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

• Export
  sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and
• Export
  sales of 260,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Soybeans,
products, and grains are lower after key dry areas of the US (IA mainly) saw rain over the past day.  The morning weather forecast improved for the Midwest.  Rains will fall across the west central areas of the Midwest today, and north central and west central
areas tomorrow through Monday. 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

We
caution reading into the drought monitor as it may not reflect the recent good rains that occurred since late last week. 

 

 

 

1-7
DAY

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 24, 2021

• An
  impressive heat wave is expected in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, British Columbia and western Alberta, Canada during the weekend and early part of next week with some of the heat eventually shifting into a larger part of the Canadian Prairies and northwestern
  U.S. Plains next week.
• Until
  then some scattered showers are expected in some of these areas but resulting rainfall will be restricted.
  
• Excessive
  rain, flooding and bouts of hail and damaging wind will occur in the heart of the Midwest today into Saturday with southeastern Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and parts of Indiana feeling the brunt of the storms, rain and flooding.
  
• West
  Texas will get some welcome rain late this weekend into next week.
• Overseas
  weather will bring some gradual relief to recent heat and dryness in western Russia, but Kazakhstan and some immediate neighboring areas of Russia’s New Lands will experience more heat and dryness in the coming week.
  
• Weather,
  in western and northern India will continue drier biased into July
• There
  is some risk of frost and freezes in southern grain areas of Brazil next week. 
• Brazil
  coffee, sugarcane and citrus areas are not vulnerable to frost next week based on today’s forecast model runs, but the situation will be closely monitored for mid-week next week
• Most
  likely the advertised cold will be moderated in time
• Weather
  in Australia, China and Europe will remain favorable for a while
• Argentina’s
  outlook has not changed with very little rain expected in the drier wheat areas, but crops are likely establishing relatively well

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
June 24:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
June 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysia
  June 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Soybean
meal sales of 387,600 tons exceeded expectations and included increases primarily for the Philippines (146,500 MT), Ecuador (109,800 MT, including decreases of 16,800 MT), Italy (30,000 MT), Honduras (20,300 MT), and El Salvador (19,500 MT, including 5,800
MT switched from Guatemala and 2,700 MT switched from Nicaragua).  Soybean export sales were 141,700 tons old crop and only 47,300 tons new crop.  China bought a cargo of old crop soybeans.  Look for new-crop soybean sales to increase next week after China
shopped around.  Soybean oil sales were 2,400 tons and shipments low at 6,800 tons. Corn sales were 216,300 tons old and 310,800 tons new.  Combined they were ok.  Corn sales for old crop included a lot of switches, including China (180,100 MT, including 132,000
MT switched from unknown destinations).  Corn new crop included 242,800 tons for unknown.  All wheat sales were within expectations at 374,200 tons. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Jun 19: 411K (est 380K; prev 412K)

US
Continuing Claims Jun 12: 3390K (est 3460K; prevR 3534K; prev 3518K)

US
Durable Goods Orders May P: 2.3% (est 2.8%; prevR -0.8%; prev -1.3%)

US
Durable Goods Ex-Transportation May P: 0.3% (est 0.7%; prevR 1.7%; prev 1.0%)

US
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air May P: -0.1% (est 0.6%; prevR 2.7%; prev 2.2%)

US
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air May P: 0.9% (est 0.8%; prevR 1.0%; prev 0.9%)

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q1 T: 6.4% (est 6.4%; prev 6.45)

US
GDP Price Index Q1 T: 4.3% (est 4.3%; prev 4.3%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 T: 2.5% (est 2.5%; prev 2.5%)

US
Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) May: -88.1B (est -87.5B; prevR -85.7B; prev -85.2B)

US
Retail Inventories (M/M) May: -0.8% (est -0.5%; prev 1.6%)

US
Wholesale Inventories (M/M) May P: 1.1% (est 0.8%; prevR 1.0%; prev 0.8%)

US
Personal Consumption Q1 T: 11.4% (est 11.4%; prev 11.3%)

Canada
Wholesale Sales Rise 1.1% In May – StatCcan Flash

Canada
Factory Sales Rise 1.0% In May- StatCan Flash

Canada
Non-Farm Payrolls Rose 166.9K In April To 16.3 Mln

 

 

Corn

• US
  corn futures are lower on a favorable US weather.  Western NE and IA saw good rains. The USD is down slight after US GDP came in near expectations.  WTI is under pressure. 
  
• Look
  for traders to start positioning ahead of the USDA June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. 
  
• IGC
  increased their world corn production by 7 million tons to 1.201 billion tons (large part China), and lowered wheat by 1 million tons to 789 million tons.
• Yesterday
  Farmers Business Network surveyed 2000 producers for US area and they have 92.9 million acres for corn and 86.5 million for soybeans.   USDA is at 91.144 & 87.600 million, respectively.  ProFarmer estimates also were released and they are using 93.6 for corn
  and 88.7 for soybeans. 
• USDA’s
  weekly Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 1 percent from a year ago and chicks placed down 1 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021, through June 19, 2021, for the United States were 4.49 billion. Cumulative placements
  were up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.
• USDA
  is due out to release quarterly hogs and pigs Thursday afternoon and Cattle on Feed Friday afternoon. 
  
• Weekly
  US ethanol production increased 23,000 barrels to 1.048 million from the previous week and stocks increased 518,000 barrels to 21.120 million.  The trade was looking for a 6,000 increase for production and stocks to increase 59,000 barrels.  We are using 5.060
  billion for 2020-21 US corn for ethanol use, up about 20 million bushels previous and 10 million above USDA.  2019-20 corn use was 4.852 billion. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• China’s
  Sinograin plans to auction off 18,207 tons of imported Ukraine corn on June 25. 
  

 

 

 

Soybeans

• The
  soybean complex is sharply lower led by soybeans and soybean oil.   Good soybean meal export sales may limit downside risk for that market.  The trade appears to be reacting to very good rains that occurred overnight into this morning across Iowa and eastern
  NE (Omaha saw about half inch).   
• Palm
  futures were down 24MYR and cash was $10/ton lower. 
• The
  Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) sees Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) production to rise marginally in the next few months and exports to pick up.  They have a CPO price range between 3,500 ringgit-3,800 ringgit ($840.54-$912.58) in the next three months. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 163 points lower and meal $4.50/short ton higher. 
• Rotterdam
  rapeseed and soybean oil prices were unchanged to 5 euros higher, and meal 3-8 euros lower. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

 

Export
Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported
• Export
  sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and
• Export
  sales of 260,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Wheat

• Chicago
  wheat is lower, leading KC and MN to the downside.  
• Western
  Russia, Belarus, northern Ukraine, and neighboring areas saw warm and dry weather during the past week, but soil moisture is ample enough to maintain favorable conditions.  Look for harvesting progress to increase next week. 
  
• The
  European Commission on Thursday lowered its forecast for soft wheat production to 125.8 million tons from 126.2 million last month.  Last year it was 117.2 million tons.
• South
  Dakota could see rain by end of Saturday.
• September
  Paris wheat was down 1.75 euros at 205.00.
• Nigeria
  restricted the use of the US Dollar for wheat imports, forcing importers to circumvent that rule in order to help keep up with demand.  Nigeria consumes about 4.7 million tons of wheat and producer only about 1 percent of that amount. 
  

 

Export
Developments. 

• Turkey’s
  state grain board TMO bought around 320,000 tons of feed at around $264.90 a ton, c&f. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Taiwan seeks 55,000 tons of US million wheat on June 24 for Aug 12-26 shipment from the PNW. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Iran seeks optional origin wheat on Wednesday. 
• Japan
  bought 159,665 tons of food wheat. 

• Jordan
  retendered for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close July 6 for Jan/Feb 2022 shipment. 
  
• Ethiopia
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 

 

Rice/Other

• CROP
  TENDER: BANGLADESH TO BUY 50,000 TONS RICE FROM BAGADIYA

 

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period June 11-June 17, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 374,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (110,600 MT), Mexico (94,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Nigeria (76,600 MT), Japan (73,000 MT, including decreases
of 500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (15,100 MT, including 14,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for the Philippines (7,400 MT) and Guatemala (3,300 MT).  Exports of 590,800 MT were primarily to the Philippines
(154,600 MT), Mexico (112,700 MT), Nigeria (81,000 MT), Japan (67,200 MT), and Thailand (58,500 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 216,300 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (180,100 MT, including 132,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 70,300 MT switched from
Taiwan, and decreases of 30,100 MT), Japan (149,100 MT, including 99,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,100 MT), Mexico (102,500 MT, including decrease of 20,600 MT), El Salvador (34,200 MT, including 18,400 MT switched from Guatemala
and 8,300 MT switched from Nicaragua), and Honduras (22,400 MT, including decreases of 22,200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (205,800 MT) and Taiwan (70,100 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 310,800 MT primarily for unknown
destinations (242,800 MT) and Japan (50,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (30,000 MT).  Exports of 1,689,700 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China
(1,068,100 MT), Mexico (332,500 MT), Japan (139,800 MT), Guatemala (45,300 MT), and El Salvador (29,200 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 30,500 MT is for unknown destinations.  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 60,000 MT is for unknown destinations.

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,000 MT were to Japan (600 MT) and South Korea (400 MT). 

Sorghum: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week.

Rice: 
Net sales of 78,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (31,400 MT), Venezuela (26,000 MT), Haiti (12,200 MT), Jordan (3,200 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT), were offset by
reductions for El Salvador (500 MT).  Exports of 42,700 MT were down 45 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (24,800 MT), Mexico (7,400 MT), Japan (2,700 MT), Canada (2,400
MT), and Saudi Arabia (1,900 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 141,700 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (83,700 MT, including 48,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (66,200 MT, including 55,000 MT
switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), China (66,000 MT), Malaysia (9,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Vietnam (8,900 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (103,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 47,300
MT primarily for Mexico (54,400 MT), unknown destinations (52,100 MT), Malaysia (6,000 MT), and Canada (500), were offset by reductions for China (66,000 MT).  Exports of 243,200 MT were up 64 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (88,300 MT), Mexico (65,200 MT), Japan (53,300 MT), Canada (13,900 MT), and Vietnam (8,200 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 387,600 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (146,500 MT), Ecuador (109,800 MT, including decreases of 16,800 MT), Italy (30,000 MT), Honduras (20,300
MT), and El Salvador (19,500 MT, including 5,800 MT switched from Guatemala and 2,700 MT switched from Nicaragua), were offset by reductions primarily for Guatemala (4,200 MT) and Belgium (1,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 22,000 MT were for unknown
destinations (19,000 MT) and the Philippines (3,000 MT).  Exports of 212,200 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (53,400 MT), Ecuador (32,300 MT),
Canada (25,600 MT), Venezuela (16,500 MT), and Guatemala (14,500 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 2,400 MT for 2020/2021 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Mexico (1,300 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and India (100 MT).  Exports of 6,800 MT were down 15 percent from
the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Jamaica (4,000 MT) and Canada (1,500 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 74,700 RB for 2020/2021 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Pakistan (36,500 RB), China (14,000 RB, including decreases of 14,100 RB), Peru (10,200 RB), Vietnam (7,100
RB, including 1,400 RB switched from Japan), and Bangladesh (4,600 RB), were offset by reductions for Singapore (4,600 RB) and Japan (1,100 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 148,900 RB primarily for Pakistan (93,900 RB), Vietnam (26,300 RB), Peru (17,100 RB),
Mexico (9,500 RB), and Guatemala (5,300 RB), were offset by reductions for China (7,900 RB).  Exports of 206,000 RB were down 32 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (39,600 RB), China
(38,800 RB), Pakistan (34,900 RB), Turkey (30,800 RB), and Bangladesh (16,600 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 9,100 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (6,500 RB),
Peru (900 RB), Bangladesh (600 RB), Turkey (600 RB), and China (400 RB).  Exports of 15,000 RB were up 25 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (7,700 RB), China (2,200 RB), Peru
(1,800 RB), Turkey (1,100 RB), and Thailand (800 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 11,100 RB is for China (6,200 RB), Vietnam (4,500 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins:  Net sales of 388,400 pieces for 2021 were up 61 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (294,500 whole cattle hides, including
decreases of 2,500 pieces), South Korea (40,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 900 pieces), Mexico (21,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 500 pieces), Thailand (9,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), and Brazil
(6,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), were offset by reductions for Japan (900 pieces).  Total net sales reductions of 200 calf skins were reported for Italy.  In addition, total net sales of 5,600 kip skins were reported for Belgium. 
Exports of 343,900 pieces were down 3 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (202,000 pieces), South Korea (58,500 pieces), Mexico (29,600 pieces), Thailand (25,400 pieces),
and Taiwan (13,600 pieces).  In addition, exports of 1,800 calf skins were to Italy.

Net
sales of 208,400 wet blues for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (45,200 unsplit and 26,000 grain splits), China (34,800 unsplit), Taiwan (32,900 unsplit), Vietnam
(27,300 unsplit), and Italy (22,300 unsplit, including decreases of 700 pieces).  Exports of 128,600 wet blues were down 33 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (32,300 unsplit
and 3,600 grain splits), China (31,800 unsplit), Vietnam (27,300 unsplit), Mexico (13,000 unsplit and 12,000 grain splits), and Thailand (6,300 unsplit).  Net sales of 85,900 splits reported for Taiwan (126,000 pounds), were offset by reductions for China
(40,100 pounds).  Exports of 298,700 pounds were to Vietnam (160,000 pounds) and China (138,700 pounds).
 

Beef: 
Net
sales of 16,900 MT reported for 2021 were up 31 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (6,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (4,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT),
China (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Taiwan (1,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Hong Kong (900 MT, including decreases 100 MT), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (100 MT).
 For
2022, total net sales of 400 MT were for Japan. 
Exports of 18,200 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (4,700 MT), China (4,100 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

Pork: 
Net sales of 28,600 MT reported for 2021 were down 2 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (11,500 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Canada
(5,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (2,000 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), and South Korea (1,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT).  Exports of 33,600 MT were down 12 percent from the previous
week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,700 MT), China (7,400 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), South Korea (1,700 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT). 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  06/17/2021

FAX 202-690-3275

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	180.4	1,558.0	1,987.9	209.4	419.6	602.6	0.0	0.0
SRW	33.6	1,030.9	600.7	18.3	22.9	43.2	0.0	0.0
HRS	94.3	1,495.7	1,643.4	240.9	326.2	319.3	0.0	0.0
WHITE	65.8	1,055.1	1,027.6	122.2	230.7	248.9	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.0	8.4	223.5	0.0	26.3	85.0	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	374.1	5,148.1	5,483.0	590.8	1,025.7	1,299.0	0.0	0.0
BARLEY	0.0	23.7	40.2	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
CORN	216.3	13,269.2	9,509.7	1,689.7	56,262.9	32,442.7	310.8	15,680.7
SORGHUM	0.0	889.2	830.3	0.0	6,336.9	3,181.8	0.0	1,594.9
SOYBEANS	141.7	3,623.4	7,892.5	243.2	58,136.2	36,687.7	47.3	7,609.3
SOY MEAL	387.6	2,136.8	2,142.3	212.2	8,869.1	8,778.0	22.0	671.5
SOY OIL	2.4	24.8	233.8	6.8	650.8	952.7	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	56.4	242.7	99.5	6.9	1,476.8	1,279.8	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	15.8	24.2	0.1	25.1	72.3	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	13.1	11.8	0.3	38.6	56.3	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	23.0	34.6	22.3	133.6	84.4	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	15.3	44.4	59.0	3.5	604.6	827.6	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	6.0	160.0	134.9	9.7	532.1	602.0	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	78.0	499.0	364.1	42.7	2,810.8	2,922.3	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	74.7	2,656.8	4,651.5	206.0	13,364.7	12,274.2	148.9	2,293.2
PIMA	9.1	129.7	125.8	15.0	690.4	443.9	0.0	4.0