FI Morning Grain Comments 07/23/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
announced 100,000 tons of soybeans were sold to Mexico for 2021-22 delivery under the 24-hour announcement system. 

 

Soybeans
are seeing follow through selling on improving US weather.  Corn is mixed amid mostly higher wheat.  Soybean oil is rebounding from a higher lead in offshore values while meal is on the defensive from product spreading and softer Rotterdam meal values.  Weather
outlook looks wetter for the late weekend into early next week for the Plains.  The Midwest will see erratic rains through Tuesday.  There were no notable export developments since Thursday.  Russia’s AgMin noted wheat yields averaged 3.45 tons per hectare
as of July 20, down from 3.47 tons a year earlier. Malaysia will leave unchanged their export tax rate on crude palm oil at 8% for August from July.  China sold 8,207 tons of imported GMO corn at auction, only 4% of what was offered.  After the CBOT close
cattle on feed will be released. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

Weather
looks wetter for the late weekend into early next week for the Plains.  The Midwest will see erratic rains through Tuesday. 

Current
radar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7-day

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 23, 2021

• Typhoon
  In-Fa will produce horrific rain and flooding to Zhejiang this weekend before moving north northeast toward northeastern China.
  
• Port
  activity in the Shanghai area will be disrupted for a few days.
• Flooding
  in interior China will slowly abate in the coming week and the assessments of crop and property damage will begin.
  
• India
  has a monsoon depression that will produce heavy rain from Madhya Pradesh into Gujarat and southern Rajasthan this weekend with another system moving across central India one week later.
  
• Both
  events in India may result in flooding.
• The
  risk of crop damaging cold in Brazil coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas was reduced today over that of Thursday because of cloudiness and some showers that will occur in the July 30-Aug. 2 period.
  
• U.S.
  weather will continue warm and dry in the Plains and western Corn Belt during this first week while showers occur in the eastern Midwest.
• Week
  two U.S. Midwest weather will bring some showers and thunderstorms to a part of the Corn Belt, but western areas will continue a little drier biased while the east is plenty moist.
  
• Texas
  will continue to dry down and heat up over the coming week
• The
  far western states will stay dry and warm
• A
  good mix of weather is expected in the Delta and southeastern states
• Europe
  is still expecting wet weather to resume today through early next week
• Parts
  of Russia and Ukraine will dry out over the coming week to ten days. 
• Much
  of Canada’s Prairies will remain dry biased, although rain will occur next week in northern and western Alberta
• Greater
  than expected rain fell in a small part of interior southeastern Saskatchewan Thursday evening
• Australia’s
  weather will remain favorably mixed in the south, but Queensland and northern New South Wales are waiting for more rain
• Ghana
  and Ivory Coast will continue to dry out over the next two weeks
• Thailand
  rainfall has improved and will continue for a few days and then trend drier again
• Portions
  of Indonesia are getting restricted rainfall and may soon need more rain

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
July 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, cattle inventory
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Monday,
July 26:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• MARS
  monthly EU crop conditions report
• Malaysia
  July 1-25 palm oil export data (tentative)
• UN
  Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Tuesday,
July 27:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• UN
  Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome
• EARNINGS:
  ADM

Wednesday,
July 28:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• UN
  Food Systems Pre-Summit in Rome
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand
• EARNINGS:
  Bunge, Pilgrim’s Pride

Thursday,
July 29:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
July 30:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

• Corn
  is moderately lower but a higher trade in wheat is limiting losses.  Weather outlook looks wetter for the late weekend into early next week for the Plains.  The Midwest will see erratic rains through Tuesday. 
  
• China
  sold 8,207 tons of imported GMO corn at auction, only 4% of what was offered. 
  
• Cattle
  on Feed will be released after the close.

 

Export
developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on July 28 for Nov/Dec shipment. 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

• Soybean
  complex is mixed, and we expect a choppy trade for the day session ahead of the weekend.  Soybean oil is higher from a bounce to the upside in palm oil futures while softer Rotterdam meal is weighing on CBOT soybean meal.  
  

• There
  were no changes in CBOT registrations for the soybean complex or grains, however, rice registrations were down a large 191 (AR). 
  
• Malaysia
  will leave unchanged their export tax rate on crude palm oil at 8% for August from July.  China sold 8,207 tons of imported GMO corn at auction, only 4% of what was offered. 
  

• November
  Canadian canola was up .30 at $8881.60/ton as of 7:49 am CT. 
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 132 points higher (209 higher for the week to date) and meal $0.40 lower ($6.40 lower for the week). 
  
• Rotterdam
  oils were 8-20 euros higher and meal 5-7 euros lower. 
• China
  cash crush margins were last negative 9 cents on our analysis (-5 yesterday), versus from negative 4 cents late last week. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

• China
  

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  announced 100,000 tons of soybeans were sold to Mexico for 2021-22 delivery.
  

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is
  higher on global crop concerns, particularly Black Sea and North America.   
  
• Russia’s
  AgMin noted wheat yields averaged 3.45 tons per hectare as of July 20, down from 3.47 tons a year earlier.
  
• Russia’s
  Southern Region and parts of the dry areas of Kazakhstan will see rain through this (Friday) evening.  This is welcome. 
  
• December
  Paris wheat was UP 2.25 at 214.25 euros. 

 

Export
Developments. 

• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 

• Pakistan’s
  TCP seeks 500,000 tons of wheat on July 27.  200,000 tons are for August shipment, and 300,000 tons are for September shipment.

 

Rice/Other

• Mauritius
  seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on July 27 for October through December shipment.