FI Morning Grain Comments 07/30/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

This
morning CBOT futures are lower on end of week/month selling/profit taking.  WTI is slightly lower and USD moderately higher.  Thunderstorms from South Dakota through western Iowa to northern Missouri are expected today (SD seeing rain early this morning) and
tonight, but net drying is expected in many other areas. Heat stress will occur across the southern US for livestock & crops this weekend. Ridging will return to the US second week of August.  Frost and freezes occurred in southern Brazil overnight damaging
some winter wheat and immature corn.

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 30, 2021

• Frost
  and freezes have occurred in southern Brazil overnight damaging some winter wheat and immature Safrinha corn, although the impact may have been lower this week because of a similar freeze that occurred last week.
  
• Frost
  and freezes were also widespread in Sul de Minas coffee production areas overnight resulting in more damage to the coffee crop.
  
• Citrus
  areas in Brazil were not seriously impacted by this morning’s cold, but sugarcane may have experienced a little frost damage.
  
• Flooding
  in China occurred in Hebei Thursday, but it was expected to abate later this weekend.
  
• India
  will experience some flooding in the coming week in the central, north and east, but southern areas will be drier than usual.
  
• Europe
  will continue to see periodic precipitation slowing small grain harvesting and maintaining some concern over grain quality, although the daily rainfall is not likely to be heavy
• Southeastern
  Europe (mostly the Balkan Countries) will experience dry and warm to hot weather for much of the coming week to ten days
• Drought
  in North America will not change over the coming week.
• Thunderstorms
  from South Dakota through western Iowa to northern Missouri later today and tonight will bring some relief a part of the U.S. western Corn Belt, but net drying is expected in many other areas.
  
• Heat
  stress is expected in the southern U.S. for livestock, crops and humans this weekend due to hot temperatures and high humidity. 
• West
  Texas, the Texas Panhandle and Blacklands will all get rain later this weekend into next week benefiting summer crops
• Net
  drying in southern Texas and parts of the Texas Coastal Bend will be great for advancing cotton, corn and sorghum harvesting
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will see a good mix of rain and  sunshine for a while
• Monsoon
  moisture will be deep into the Rocky Mountains over the coming week offering periodic rainfall for the region
  
• Some
  of this moisture could get pulled into southern Canada or the northern U.S. Plains if a significant frontal system impacts the region

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
July 30:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Monday,
Aug. 2:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, soybean crush, DDGS production, 3pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Aug. 3:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
Aug. 4:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• France
  agriculture ministry updates 2021 crop estimates

Thursday,
Aug. 5:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia
  Aug. 1-5 palm oil export data
• Risi
  pulp conference, Sao Paulo
• BayWa
  earnings

Friday,
Aug. 6:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Saturday,
Aug. 7

• China’s
  first batch of July trade data, incl. soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Personal Income Jun: 0.1% (est -0.3%; prevR -2.2%; prev -2.0%)

US
Personal Spending Jun: 1.0% (est 0.7%; prevR -0.1%; prev 0.0%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Jun: 3.5% (est 3.7%; prev 3.4%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Jun: 0.4% (est 0.6%; prev 0.5%)

US
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Jun: 4.0% (est 4.0%; prevR 4.0%; prev 3.9%)

US
PCE Deflator (M/M) Jun: 0.5% (est 0.6%; prevR 0.5%; prev 0.4%)

US
Real Personal Spending Jun: 0.5% (est 0.3%; prevR -0.6%; prev -0.4%)

 

 

 

Corn

• Corn
  is
  selling off this morning following wheat and soybeans. 
• US
  western Corn Belt will see rain today into early Saturday.  South Dakota saw a fair amount of rain already as of early this morning.  Frost and freezes occurred in southern Brazil overnight damaging some winter wheat and immature corn.  Flooding in China occurred
  in Hebei.
• 36%
  of U.S. corn crop is experiencing moderate to severe drought, unchanged from last week. 
  
• Planalytics:
  175.3 US corn yield. 

 

Export
developments.

• Today
  China was to auction off 202,264 tons of imported US corn and 49,695 tons of imported Ukrainian corn. 
  

• Qatar
  seeks about 100,000 tons of barley on August 18 for Sep-Nov delivery. 

 

 

 

Soybeans

• Soybeans
  are lower early Friday on end of week/month profit taking and rain occurring across parts of the dry areas of the WCB today.  Canadian canola is selling off, down about $22.10.  Offshore values are leading the CBOT products lower.  China futures were mixed
  with meal higher and soybeans & SBO closing lower. 
• Paraguay
  truck drivers went on strike yesterday over transportation costs and rising fuel costs. 
  
• Earlier
  this week 50,000 tons of Argentina SME traded. 
• Malaysian
  pam October futures were down 58 points and cash off $7.50/ton to $1,080.00/ton. 
  
• November
  Canadian canola was down 19.30 at $859.10/ton as of 7:55 am CT.
• Rotterdam
  oils were mixed and meal 1-4 euros higher to lower. 
• China
  cash crush margins were last positive 50 cents on our analysis (previous 36), versus negative 9 cents late last week. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 130 points lower (173 for the week today date) and meal $2.40 higher ($8.50 higher for the week to date). 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

• China
  

 

Export
Developments

• The
  USDA seeks 2,880 tons of packaged oil for use under the PL480 program on August 3 for Sep 1-30 shipment. 
  

 

 

 

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is lower in a buy the rumor, sell the fact trade.  Yesterday afternoon we got confirmation the spring wheat crop will end up short this year.  
  The
  average annual Wheat Quality Council tour spring wheat yield for North Dakota was estimated at 29.1 bushels per acre, lowest since data began in 1993, and well below the 5-year average of 43.6 bushels per acre.  USDA is at 28.0 bushels per acre.
  
• Ukrainian
  harvested 24.3 million tons of grain from 36.7% of its planted area, including 6.9 million tons of barley and 16.9 million tons of wheat (AgMin).
  
• France
  harvested 47% of the soft wheat crop as of July 26, up from 14% from the previous week, and compares with 87% by the same time last year.
• Russia’s
  wheat export customs duty will be left unchanged at $31.40/ton.
• EU’s
  soft-wheat production was estimated at 127.7 million tons, up from 125.8 projected in June. 
  
• December
  Paris wheat was down 0.75 at 221.50 euros as of 8:13 am CT. 

 

Export
Developments. 

• Pakistan
  bought about 220,000 tons of wheat out of 500,000 tons sought at $304/ton c&f for September shipment.
  
• Turkey’s
  TMO seeks up to around 900,000 tons of 11.5-12.5% milling wheat (395k) and feed barley (515k) for late September 16-30 shipment.  The barley is sought on August 3 and wheat on August 4. Turkey is one of Russia’s best customer. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 

 

Rice/Other

• Results awaited: Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on July 27 for October through December shipment.