FI Morning Grain Comments 08/01/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Despite
and sharply lower USD and outlook for US crop conditions to decline, the lower trade in CBOT US agriculture markets appears to be related to ok US Midwest rains over the weekend, Ukraine resumption of grain shipments, and massive decline in WTI crude oil futures.
Technical selling was noted for soybeans and soybean meal. US / China trade talks should not be overlooked. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH AROUND THE WORLD

• Western
  U.S. Corn Belt is likely to dry down this week because of hot temperatures and limited rainfall
• Two
  waves of hot weather will impact the Plains and western Corn Belt with highs in the 90s to 104 degrees Fahrenheit expected in the first wave (slightly hotter in the heart of the Plains with extremes to 108)
  
• Second
  wave late this week into the weekend will generate highs in the 90s to 102 with slightly warmer readings in the Plains
• Insignificant
  rainfall is expected during the week allowing net drying to occur especially in the Plains and Missouri River Valley
  
• Soil
  moisture is already short to very short in the northwestern Corn Belt and it is expected to dry down in the southwestern Corn Belt this week
• U.S.
  second week outlook in the Plains and western Corn Belt may bring along some periodic rainfall to slow the drying trend and possibly offer a little relief to the driest areas
• Temperatures
  will not be nearly as hot next week as they will be at times this week in the Western Corn Belt
• Rain
  will fall periodically in the eastern U.S. Midwest over the next ten days to two weeks resulting in a mostly favorable crop development environment
  
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states weather is expected to be favorably mixed over the next ten days to two weeks
• Texas
  crop areas away from the coast and away from the Panhandle will continue to experience hot and dry weather resulting in some ongoing crop stress.
  
• Heavy
  rain fell in the Texas Panhandle during the weekend with Goodnight, Texas reporting 6.71 inches of rain
  
• Rain
  fall of 1.00 to more than 4.00 inches occurred across central parts of the Panhandle seriously bolstering soil moisture for improved crop development potential
• U.S.
  soil moisture is mixed across key crop areas with dryness most serious in the Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, southern Minnesota and western Iowa
• These
  areas are experiencing very short topsoil moisture and short to very short subsoil moisture.
  
• Some
  areas are drier than others, but the longer these areas go without rain the more serious the stress is likely to become
• U.S.
  Delta soil moisture has improved with recent rain, but subsoil moisture is still rated very short
• Much
  more rain is still needed to support crops in the long run
• Soil
  moisture in the central and eastern Midwest is still rated quite favorably and these areas will continue to get significant rainfall
  
• Soil
  moisture improved greatly in cotton, corn and sorghum areas from southwestern Kansas into the Texas Panhandle and in northern parts of Oklahoma during the past week
  
• World
  Weather, Inc. believes the Plains and western fringes of the U.S. Corn Belt will continue to experience a drier biased scenario during the next two weeks, but the central and eastern Midwest will get timely rain to maintain a favorable outlook for crop development
  from the Mississippi River valley into the eastern Midwest
• This
  outlook is similar to that of earlier this summer, but wetter than that of late last week
  
• Excessive
  heat continued in the Pacific Northwest during the weekend with extreme highs of 104 to 113 reported officially
• Some
  areas in Oregon and southern Idaho did not warm above 100, but were in the upper 90s
• Crop
  and livestock stress was tremendous
• A
  few heat-related deaths occurred to humans
• Livestock
  losses have likely occurred, but not yet confirmed
• Temperatures
  reached 108 as far north as Lytton, British Columbia
• A
  huge demand was placed on water supply in the region all of last week and through the weekend
  
• Relief
  is expected in the U.S. Pacific Northwest during mid-week this week with temperatures easing back to near normal levels for a while, but heat may return to parts of the region for a little while net week
  
• U.S.
  bottom line is very similar to that of earlier this summer. Dryness is not an issue in the central or eastern Midwest (outside of a few pockets). Dryness is a little more common in the western Corn and Soybean production region with some areas drier than others.
  Crop stress is already present in a significant manner in the northwestern Corn Belt while expanding across the northern Plains. World Weather, Inc. believes relief in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt is not likely until next week when the weekend
  high pressure ridge either breaks down or shifts to the west. Until then, rainfall is unlikely to be great enough to offer serious relief from heat and dryness. Next week will offer some partial relief to heat and dryness in the Plains and westernmost Corn
  Belt, but the ridge might return a little later in August quickly closing the door of opportunity for relief in the westernmost crop areas. Overall, crop conditions will stay good in the Delta, southeastern states and central and eastern Midwest while moisture
  and heat stress (in this first week only) will occur in the westernmost Corn Belt and Great Plains pressuring crop development, but actual losses in production will be more determined by next week’s weather in these areas than this week.  World Weather, Inc.
  is concerned that the second week rainfall in the Plains and western fringes of the Corn Belt will be restricted limiting relief. In the meantime, relief is expected in the Pacific Northwest from the excessive heat, although rainfall will be minimal. Rain
  is also unlikely in the northwestern U.S. Plains where crop moisture stress will continue next week despite cooler temperatures.
  
• Western
  Europe was left dry during the weekend and temperatures began to turn warmer with highest temperatures back into the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit in France and hotter in Spain while in the 70s and lower 80s in Germany and the U.K.
  
• Western
  Europe is unlikely to get much precipitation during the next ten days, although it will not be totally dry
• Resulting
  rainfall is not likely to be very great and no serious change in crop moisture and livestock stress is expected
• Temperatures
  will be above normal for the next full week and possibly ten days
• Extreme
  highs in the 80s and 90s are expected over many parts of western Europe with extremes over 100 in the southwest; including southwestern France
• Eastern
  Europe received rain during the weekend with Poland, Czech Republic and a part of Slovakia getting 1.00 to 2.63 inches
• One
  location in eastern Czech Republic received 5.35 inches
• Showers
  also occurred in Serbia, western Bulgaria, Romania and western Ukraine with coverage of 75% and rainfall of 0.05 to 0.62 inch
• A
  few local totals of 0.88 to nearly 3.00 inches resulted
• Most
  of the rain was welcome, but only a few areas that had been too dry received enough rain to seriously improve soil moisture
• Drought
  remains and is unlikely to change without greater rain
• Eastern
  Europe weather will experience isolated to scattered showers over the next ten days with the Balkan Countries driest and warmest
• Crop
  stress will continue in areas that failed to get rain during the weekend
• The
  bottom line in Europe is still quite favorable in the Baltic Plain, Belarus and the Baltic States as well as Czech Republic, but dryness is still a concern in most of western and southeastern Europe, despite temporary relief in the southeast during the weekend.
  Rainfall in the next two weeks will be a little too light and infrequent while temperatures are warmer than usual to induce any serious change in crop or field conditions. Crop stress will continue in France, southern parts of the U.K., portions of Germany,
  Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, southern Italy and from parts of Greece and Bulgaria to Hungary and a part of Slovakia.
  
• A
  split jet stream is expected over parts of Russia resulting in net drying conditions in the eastern portions of the Volga River Basin Ural Mountains region, western Kazakhstan, eastern parts of Russia’s Southern Region and the eastern Russia New Lands during
  the next ten days
• Temperatures
  will be near to above normal inducing a net decline in soil moisture
• Some
  drying has already occurred and a little crop stress is possible as time moves along during the next two ten days
• Eastern
  Ukraine and portions of southwestern Russia will experience periods of rain this week improving topsoil moisture and crop conditions
• This
  will include western parts of Russia’s Southern Region
• Some
  rain totals by Saturday may vary from 1.00 to 3.00 inches
• Northeastern
  China received additional rain during the weekend from northern Jiangsu and southern Shandong into Heilongjiang  
• Rainfall
  varied from 1.00 to 3.00 inches except in southern Shandong and northern Jiangsu where 10.00 to 11.30 inches of rain were noted
  
• Drying
  occurred in the Yellow River Basin after heavy rain fell late last week
• Showers
  elsewhere in China were sporadic and mostly light
• Temperatures
  were warm enough induce quick drying
• Eastern
  China’s weather in the next ten days will be drier than usual in the interior southeast and favorably to excessively wet from the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain into northeastern China
• Xinjiang,
  China will see a good mix of weather over the next two weeks maintaining favorable crop development and normal yield potentials
  
• Argentina’s
  next potential rain event in wheat areas is possible late this coming weekend into early next week
  
• Rainfall
  may vary up to 0.50 inch, but the event is too far out in time to have much confidence in the event
  
• Rain
  will also fall in northeastern Argentina Tuesday into Thursday, but that event will most the most important wheat areas and especially those that are driest in the west
  
• Far
  southern Brazil will receive periodic rainfall during the next ten days maintaining a typically moist pattern in the soil from Rio Grande do Sul into Paraguay, southernmost Mato Grosso do Sul and parts of both Parana and southern Sao Paulo
• The
  moisture will be great for winter crops and should not have much impact on Safrinha crop maturation or harvesting
• Some
  forecast models have suggested rain in parts of Mato Grosso next week, but confidence in the event is very low
• Safrinha
  cotton and late corn harvesting in Brazil will advance well due to continued dry and warm weather through the coming weekend
• There
  is no threat of damaging cold weather in Brazil coffee, citrus or sugarcane areas during the next two weeks
• Southeastern
  Canada (Quebec and Ontario) crop conditions are rated favorably with little change likely for a while
• Canada’s
  southwestern and central Prairies will dry down over the next week to ten days and temperatures will slowly rise above normal.
  
• Crop
  stress will rise once again as soil moisture is slowly depleted
• The
  greatest stress will eventually evolve in central, west-central, southwestern and south-central Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta, but conditions will remain favorable through the weekend
• India’s
  monsoonal rainfall is expected to continue widespread across the nation during the next two weeks with all areas impacted and most getting sufficient rain to bolster soil moisture and/or induce flooding
• Some
  central areas may become too wet, but the precipitation will occur with sufficient breaks in this coming week to prevent serious flooding from occurring
• Worry
  over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand will continue even though timely rain is expected
• These
  three states and immediate neighboring areas received well below normal precipitation earlier this summer and have moisture deficits still lingering
• Greater
  rain is needed in these areas, but may be slow in coming.
• Nationwide
  rainfall is still expected to be above normal through mid-August and additional relief should occur to the dry areas of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but the amounts will need to be closely monitored. Cotton, groundnut and soybean areas of northwestern India should
  experience mostly good weather for crop improvements after flooding rain earlier this month
• Sumatra,
  Indonesia rainfall continues a little too erratic and greater moisture is still needed in some areas, despite a little rain earlier this week
• Greater
  rain is expected to slowly evolve over the next two weeks

 

• All
  other Southeast Asian nations will experience an abundance of rainfall during the next few weeks resulting in some flooding in the Philippines and the Maritime provinces
• Australia
  weather in the coming ten days will be favorable for most winter crops
• Central
  Queensland received rain Wednesday and Thursday favoring a boost in topsoil moisture for a part of winter crop country
  
• Western
  Australia will get most of the significant rain this coming week, but some rain will eventually reach the southeastern parts of the nation in time next week.
  
• South
  Korea rice areas are still dealing with drought, despite some rain that fell recently.
  
• Some
  additional rain is expected over the next couple of weeks
• East-central
  Africa rainfall is increasing and will be greatest in central and western Ethiopia, but Uganda and Kenya will get some much needed improved rainfall
• Tanzania
  is normally dry at this time of year and it should be that way for the next few of weeks
• West-central
  Africa rainfall has been and will continue sufficient to support coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton development normally
• Some
  greater rain would still be welcome in the drier areas of Ivory Coast and Ghana
  
• Seasonal
  rains are shifting northward leading to some drying in southern areas throughout west-central Africa
• Cotton
  areas are expecting frequent rainfall in the next couple of weeks
• South
  Africa’s crop moisture situation is favorable for winter crop establishment, although some additional rain might be welcome
• Restricted
  rainfall is expected for a while, but the crop is rated better than usual
• Central
  America rainfall will continue to be abundant to excessive and drying is needed
• Mexico
  rain will be most abundant in the west and southern parts of the nation
• Rain
  in the Greater Antilles will occur periodically, but no excessive amounts are likely
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +7.83 and it will move erratically higher over the next week
• New
  Zealand weather is expected to be well mixed over the next two weeks
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Aug. 1:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions for wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton; spring wheat harvest, winter wheat crop progress, 4pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• Honduras
  and Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
• International
  Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly outlook report
• EARNINGS:
  CF, Mosaic
• HOLIDAY:
  Canada

Tuesday,
Aug. 2:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Australia
  commodity index
• US
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
• EARNINGS:
  FMC, Green Plains, Andersons

Wednesday,
Aug. 3:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  July 1-20 palm oil export data
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Aug. 4:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• EARNINGS:
  Corteva

Friday,
Aug. 5:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  Aug. 1-5 palm oil export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections estimates via Reuters

Wheat                 
250000-550000

Corn                     
550000-1150000

Soybeans           
300000-800000

 

Macros

US
Construction Spending (M/M) Jun: -1.1% (est 0.1%; prev R 0.1%)

US
ISM Manufacturing Jul: 52.8 (est 52.0; prev 53.0)

–
Prices Paid: 60.0 (est 74.3; prev 78.5)

–
New Orders: 48.0 (est 49.0; prev 79.2)

–
Employment: 49.9 (est 49.9; prev 47.3)

9:08:02
AM livesquawk Ukraine’s State Gas Transit Operator: Gazprom Booked Transit Capacity At Sudzha Transit Point Of 41.72 Mcm For Aug 2, Same Volume As On Aug 1

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower on Ukraine shipping its first grain shipment out of the Black Sea. A large decline in WTI crude oil is also bearish.

·        
It will be a while to see how much corn and wheat will flow out of the Black Sea region, but just the thought China will turn to Black Sea corn is keeping some wondering if US corn exports will have an impact over the short term.

·        
Ukraine shipped 3 million tons of agriculture products in July, a 12% increase from June. Grains were 1.7 million tons, not that bad of a figure given the rail constraints.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn on Aug 3 for Oct 1-20 shipment if from the Gulf/SA, or later if from PNW.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are seeing heavy selling after the US/China trade call, lack of US export demand and technical selling. Soybean oil is seeing a correction which is pressuring soybeans. Meal is largely lower with funds exiting positions.

·        
US rains moved across the northern Delta over the weekend, an area where 90+ degrees dominated over the past few weeks. That area needed the rain.

·        
There were no CBOT deliveries.

·        
India is seeing above average rains for early Aug monsoon season, good for wheat and replenishing soil moisture for winter oilseeds.

·        
Malaysia October palm was down 229 MYR to 4060 /ton and cash down $40 at $1005.

·        
China soybean futures were up 2.7%, meal 1.6% higher, soybean oil up 1.4%, and palm 1.4% higher.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were 3-40
euros lower earlier and meal mostly 5-13 lower, from this time Friday morning.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 324 points lower earlier this morning and meal $3.70 short ton lower.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to sell a half a million tons of soybeans out of reserves on August 5.

 

 

Wheat

·        
The first Ukraine Black Sea grain vessel set sail over the weekend, pressuring global wheat prices. The first shipment set to reach Istanbul is a milestone, but the trade needs to be cautious on how much will be exported over
the next several weeks.

·        
US wheat futures are lower despite a sharp decline in the USD. Outside markets are lower.

·        
Paris September wheat was down 6.00 euros at 337.00 euros as of 9:25 am CT.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday for Sep/Oct shipment.  They are normally a customer of the EU.

·        
Look for Egypt to retender for wheat if futures prices remain under pressure.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on August 2.

·        
Taiwan seeks 50,910 tons of US wheat on August 4 for shipment from the PNW between September 21 and October 5.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade seeks 92,100 tons of rice on Aug 3 for arrival in SK between Feb & Apr.