FI Morning Grain Comments 08/16/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 228,606 tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.

 

Rain
fell across western and south-central IA, NE, and northern Missouri. Most of the US Midwest crop areas during the next ten days will see some rain. The southern US Plains will see precipitation Wednesday night into Friday and more significantly Monday through
Wednesday of next week. The northwestern US Plains and Canada’s southwestern Prairies will see net drying over the next week. US crop conditions dropped one point for corn and soybeans and were unchanged for spring wheat. The less than expected drop in ratings
pressured prices overnight, coupled with a higher USD, ongoing demand destruction concerns, and follow through selling from good US weather. The EU will see an increase in rains this week. WTI crude oil turned lower.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUGUST 16, 2022

• Rain
  occurred in western and south-central Iowa, Nebraska and northern Missouri as expected overnight
• The
  moisture will help to improve crop and field conditions for a while especially with cooler temperatures expected for a while
• Timely
  rain and/or favorable soil moisture is expected in U.S. crop areas during the next ten days to leave crop development at a mostly status quo level
• There
  will be pockets that have need for more rain while other areas will experience some short term moisture improvements and parts of the region may dry down a little, but crop conditions should not change much during this period
• Rain
  is still expected in the southern U.S. Plains briefly Wednesday night into Friday and more significantly Monday through Wednesday of next week
  
• The
  rain will come a little late for much benefit to summer crops, but the moisture could be of use in repairing range and pasture conditions for future livestock grazing and will possibly improve the prospects for wheat planting in early September, although follow
  up rain will be needed
• A
  good mix of weather is expected in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states over the next ten days
• Dryness
  will prevail in the northwestern U.S. Plains, Canada’s southwestern Prairies and in the U.S. Pacific Northwest during much of the coming week to ten days
• No
  changes in South America were noted overnight with western Argentina to remain drier biased and southern Brazil to remain wet
• India
  will continue wet across central parts of the nation from Odisha to Gujarat and Rajasthan with rain expected to continue periodically in Pakistan as well
• Europe
  will experience periodic showers, but many areas will still have a huge need for more moisture
• None
  of the rain will improve river levels across the continent
• Western
  Russia will experience drier and warmer biased conditions for a while, although western parts of Russia’s Southern Region and Ukraine will receive some beneficial rain later this week
• Hot
  and dry conditions in China’s Yangtze River Basin will prevail for at least another week and the second week outlook is not looking very good for big changes, although some showers and slight cooling will be possible
• Australia
  crop weather will remain mostly good, but there are some concerns about too much moisture in a few areas

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Aug. 16:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Aug. 17:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Thursday,
Aug. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of July trade data, including corn, pork and wheat imports
• International
  Grains Council report
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am

Friday,
Aug. 19:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases sugar, cane and ethanol output data
• US
  cattle on feed, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  Deere

Saturday,
Aug. 20: 

• China’s
  third batch of July trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
• AmSpec
  to release Malaysia’s Aug. 1-20 palm oil export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Soybean
and Corn report:

2022
U.S. Corn Yield Lowered 1.0 bu/ac to 173.0 bu/ac

2022
U.S. Soybean Yield Unchanged at 50.5 bu/ac

 

Macros

 

US
Housing Starts Jul: 1.446Mln (est 1.527Mln, prev 1.559Mln)

Housing
Starts M/M Jul: -9.6% (est -2.1%, prev -2%)

US
Building Permits Jul: 1.674Mln (est 1.64Mln, prevR 1.696Mln)

Building
Permits M/M Jul: -1.3% (est -3.3%, PrevR 0.1%)

Canada
CPI NSA M/M Jul: 0.1% (est 0.1%, prev 0.7%)

CPI
Y/Y Jul: 7.6% (est 7.6%, prev 8.1%)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures extended losses after crop conditions dipped only one point last week to 57 percent G/E.

·        
USD is higher by 16 points and WTI crude oil turned lower.

·        
Cooler temperatures for the US is seen as beneficial for corn maturity. Rain fell across western and south-central IA, NE and northern Missouri. Most of the US Midwest crop areas during the next ten days will see some rain.

·        
The EU will see an increase in rains this week.

·        
Turkey reported five more grain ships left Ukraine carrying corn and wheat. One of the ships is bound for Africa (donation).

·        
A Ukraine official projected Ukraine could export 3 million tons of grain from ports during the month of September and four million tons from then. Up to 30 applications were turned in for ships to arrive in Ukraine over the next
two weeks.

·        
Some speculate the Ukraine winter grain area plantings could drop 30 to as much as 60 percent for 2023 production without state assistance.

·        
China is pushing back on Australian meat imports citing foot and mouth disease, a claim that Australia rejects.

·        
85 percent of Brazil’s center-south corn crop had been collected as of late last week.

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans,
meal and soybean oil are lower from good US weather, demand destruction concerns. Crop conditions were down one point last week to 58 percent. Some of the trade was looking for a larger decline. USDA announced 228,606 tons of soybeans were sold to Mexico for
new-crop delivery.

·        
Some traders are eying the SX gap of $13.4925.

·        
January Board crush margins are nearing $2.00.

·        
SGS reported Aug 1-15 palm oil exports at 516,072 tons, a 9.5 percent decrease from the same period last month.

·        
Malaysia’s ringgit hit a 5-1/2 year low.

·        
Malaysia October palm oil was 45 MYR higher to 4170/ton, and cash was unchanged at $1,030.00/ton.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.9 percent, meal 0.6% lower, soybean oil down 1.5%, and palm 1.8% higher.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
down 10-18 euros lower earlier, and meal 5-9 euros lower for the positions we follow, from this time yesterday morning.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 10 points higher earlier this morning and meal $6.50 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported sales of 228,606 tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.

·        
Results awaited: Egypt seeks local vegetable oils on August 16, 3,000 tons of soyoil and 1,000 tons of sunflower oil are sought for arrival Oct. 1-25 and/or Nov. 1-20, 2022.

·        
Results awaited: The CCC seeks 4350 tons of vegetable oil for use in export programs on Aug 16 for Sep 9-oct 15 shipment, October for plants at ports.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are
lower on follow through selling, unchanged spring wheat crop condition (64 percent G/E), and higher USD.

·        
SovEcon increased their estimate for the Russia wheat crop to 94.7 million tons from previous 94.7 million tons.  They warned Russian wheat exports have been “painfully slow” because on Western sanctions. For all grains they are
at 142.6 million tons, including 15.1 million tons of corn and 20.6 million tons of barley.

·        
USDA is at 88 million tons for the Russia wheat crop, a figure that will likely increase next month.

·        
Ukraine is working with officials to help free up a detained wheat vessel purchased by Egypt.

·        
The US spring wheat harvest progress is lagging. At 16 percent at the end of last week, that is down from 35 percent average.

·        
Paris September wheat was down 5.00 euros at 334.50 euros as of 7:15 am CT.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Iraq’s state grains buyer seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat from the United States on September 17.

·        
Jordan bought about 60,000 tons of wheat, optional origin. The wheat was bought at $385.50 a ton, c&f, for shipment in the first half of February 2023.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on August 17 for LH Dec through LH Feb shipment.

·        
Japan’s AgMin seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of feed barley on August 19 for arrival by January 26, 2023.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Cotton conditions were 34 percent, up from 31 percent week ago and down from 67 percent year ago.

·        
Iraq’s state grains buyer seeks 50,000 tons of rice on September 17.