FI Morning Grain Comments 08/17/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
August 17, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

• Export
  sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and
• Export
  sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Pro
Farmer projected lower corn yields and soybean pod counts than last year in South Dakota but higher Ohio yields and pod counts, as expected. Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour (2021/2020/3-year average corn yield/soybean pod count):

Ohio
Corn: 185.06/167.69/167.20

Ohio
Soybeans: 1195.4/1155.7/1056.0

South
Dakota Corn: 151.45/179.24/170.44

South
Dakota Soybeans: 996.9/1250.9/1036.1

 

Despite
a decline in US corn and soybean crop ratings, agriculture commodity futures sold off late in the electronic overnight trade. Corn was higher overnight and is unchanged to weaker after wheat extended losses.  Soybeans, canola and meal were still higher.  Soybean
oil was down sharply in part to weakness in outside related markets and follow through selling the US energy markets.  The rapid US spring wheat harvest progress is pressuring US wheat this morning despite ongoing problems with the EU wheat crop.  China’s
sow herd declined 0.5% in July to 45.6 million from the previous month, first monthly decline in nearly two years, in part to weaker hog prices.  China’s pig herd increased 0.8% in July from the prior month to 439 million and was 31% larger than a year earlier. 
We saw only one tender update since late yesterday.  South Korea’s NOFI bought 138,000 tons of feed corn from South America. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Aug. 17:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Wednesday,
Aug. 18:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• China’s
  second batch of July trade data for commodities, including corn, wheat, sugar and pork

Thursday,
Aug. 19:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases sugar and cane production data (tentative)
• USDA
  total milk, read meat production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Friday,
Aug. 20:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  country-wise import data for farm goods such as soybeans, corn and pork
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Aug. 1-20 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
440,567                 versus   300000-625000  range

Corn                     
754,929                 versus   600000-1000000                range

Soybeans           
277,637                 versus   75000-300000                     range

 

Macros

US
Retail Sales Advance (M/M) Jul: -1.1% (est -0.3%; prevR 0.7%; prev 0.6%)

US
Retail Sales Ex-Auto (M/M) Jul: -0.4% (est 0.2%; prevR 1.6%; prev 1.3%)

US
Retail Sales Ex-Auto, Gas (M/M) Jul: -0.7% (est -0.1%; prevR 1.3%; prev 1.1%)

US
Retail Sales Control Group Jul: -1.0% (est -0.2%; prevR 1.4%; prev 1.1%)

Canadian
Housing Starts Jul: 272.2K (est 280.0K; prevR 281.2K; prev 282.1K)

Canadian
International Securities Transactions Jun: 19.70B (prev 20.79B)

US
Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: 0.9% (est 0.5%; prev 0.4%)

US
Capacity Utilization Jul: 76.1% (est 75.7%; prev 75.4%)

US
Manufacturing (SIC) Production Jul: 1.4% (est 0.7%; prev -0.1%)

 

Corn

• US
  corn is
  unchanged to lower at the electronic close after wheat extended losses. 
  
• Pro
  Farmer projected lower corn yields and soybean pod counts than last year in South Dakota but higher Ohio yields and pod counts, as expected.
  
• Day
  one of the Pro Farmer crop tour.   (2021/2020/3-year average corn yield/soybean pod count):
  
• Ohio
  Corn: 185.06/167.69/167.20
• Ohio
  Soybeans: 1195.4/1155.7/1056.0
• South
  Dakota Corn: 151.45/179.24/170.44
• South
  Dakota Soybeans: 996.9/1250.9/1036.1
• Despite
  a decline in US corn crop ratings on a national level, state-by-state indicated the drop in rating was in part to IL seeing a correction from the previous week (it jumped previous week only to decline 7 this week). 
  
• China’s
  sow herd declined 0.5% in July to 45.6 million from the previous month, first monthly decline in nearly two years, in part to weaker hog prices.  The herd number is still up 25 percent from a year ago.  Farmers lost an average 665 yuan ($102) per head during
  June, according to agriculture ministry data per Reuters.  China’s pig herd increased 0.8% in July from the prior month to 439 million and was 31% larger than a year earlier.  Both sows and pigs recovered from 2017 levels. 
  
• We
  saw only one tender update since late yesterday.  South Korea’s NOFI bought 138,000 tons of feed corn from South America on two consignments for arrival in November. 
  
• US
  weather appears to be non-threatening for the majority of the Corn Belt, with cooler and drier conditions this week, bias east.
  
• USDA
  reported US corn crop conditions dropped 2 points to 62 percent.  The trade was looking for unchanged. 
  

• USDA
  US corn export inspections as of August 12, 2021, were 754,929 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 744,934 tons previous week and compares to 1,139,132 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 274,898 tons, Japan for 194,508 tons, and
  Mexico for 180,638 tons.
• AgRural
  reported Brazilian corn harvesting across the center-south at 70% of their second corn, behind 77% year ago.  Mato Grosso farmers is finished. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• South
  Korea’s NOFI bought 138,000 tons of feed corn from South America on two consignments for arrival in November.  They passed on 69k.  One cargo traded at $2.4920/bu over the December and second at $2.4765/bu over the Dec. 
  
• Qatar
  seeks about 100,000 tons of barley on August 18 for Sep-Nov delivery. 

• Turkey
  seeks 270,000 tons of barley on August 20 for shipment between Sep 1 and Sep 25. 
  

 

 

Soybeans

• Soybeans
  are higher after on a decline in US soybean conditions and ongoing USDA export sales.  Nine straight days USDA announced sales to unknown or specific destinations.  Today it included 198,000 tons of soybeans to China and 132,000 tons to unknown.   Soybeans
  are near a two-week high. 
• Pro
  Farmer projected lower corn yields and soybean pod counts than last year in South Dakota but higher Ohio yields and pod counts, as expected.
  
• Canola
  and meal are higher. 
• Soybean
  oil was down in part to weakness in outside related markets and follow through selling in WTI crude oil.  European vegetable oils were unchanged to 6 euros lower from this time yesterday.  Rotterdam meal was unchanged to 7 euros weaker.  Malaysian palm futures
  basis the November position was down 39 ringgit and cash fell $5/tons.  Palm futures were lower on profit taking and slowing Aug 1-15 shipments of Malaysian palm shipments from FH July. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading soybean oil 6 points higher and meal $1.40 lower. 
• China
  cash crush margins were last positive 101 cents on our analysis (unchanged from previous) versus 87 cents late last week and also 87 cents around a year ago. 
  
• China

• USDA
  reported soybean crop conditions dropped 3 points to 57 percent.  The trade was looking for unchanged. 
  

• USDA
  US soybean export inspections as of August 12, 2021, were 277,637 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 114,718 tons previous week and compares to 932,541 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 147,597 tons, Japan for 55,658 tons, and
  Bangladesh for 25,000 tons.
• NOPA
  reported a July crush of 155.1 million bushels, 4 million below a trade average, and lowest for the month since 2017.  Daily adjusted the crush fell to its lowest level since September.  Soybean oil stocks surprised the trade as they increased to 1.617 billion
  pounds from 1.537 billion at the end of June.  Implied US soybean use for the month of July is lowest since December 2019.  SBO for biodiesel demand was slower than expected last month. 
  
• Indian
  vegetable oil imports during July fell 23% to 917,336 tons from June and were nearly down 40 percent from July 2020 when they imported 1.517 million tons.  July palm imports were 465,600 tons, down from 587,500 tons. 
  

 

Export
Developments

• USDA
  announced private exporters sold 198,000 tons of soybeans to China and 132,000 tons to unknown destinations for 2021-22 delivery. 
  
• USDA
  today seeks 290,000 tons of veg oil for use in export programs. 210 tons in 4-liter cans and 80 tons in 4-liter cans or plastic bottles, for shipment Sep16 to Oct 15 (Oct 1-31 for plants at ports).
  
• South
  Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 3,700 tons of non-GMO soybeans on August 19 for arrival between Oct. 20 and Nov. 19.

 

Wheat

• The
  rapid US spring wheat harvest progress is pressuring US wheat this morning despite ongoing problems with the EU wheat crop. 
  
• EU
  December wheat was down 7.00 euros at the time this was written. 
• Germanys
  association of farm cooperatives lower their estimates for the 2021 wheat and rapeseed crops.  Germany’s wheat production was revised to 22.39 million tons from 22.80 million tons previous.  Winter rapeseed was pegged at 3.51 million ton from 3.68 million
  in July.
• USDA
  reported US spring wheat crop conditions unchanged at 11 percent, as expected.  Spring wheat harvest advanced 20 points to 58 percent, one point above expectations. 
  
• USDA
  US all-wheat export inspections as of August 12, 2021, were 440,567 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 653,969 tons previous week and compares to 495,513 tons year ago. Major countries included Japan for 107,014 tons, Nigeria for 79,215 tons,
  and Malaysia for 66,000 tons.

 

 

Export
Developments. 

• Awaited:
  Algeria seeks an unspecified amount of wheat today for September shipment. 
  
• The
  Philippines seeks 280,000 tons of feed wheat on August 19 for October/November shipment.
  
• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on August 19. 
• Japan
  (SBS) seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on August 18 for loading by November 30. 
  
• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on August 18. 
• Pakistan
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on August 23 for Sep/Oct shipment. 
• Morocco
  seeks 363,000 tons of US durum wheat under a tariff import quota on August 24 for shipment by December 31. 
  

 

Rice/Other

• None
  reported