FI Morning Grain Comments 08/19/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

There
were no 24-H USDA sale announcements. Traders were looking for soybeans sales to China. Today we are seeing a reversal (lower) in the soybean complex. Corn was slightly higher while wheat is higher on technical buying.
News has not changed. Look for positioning today ahead of the weekend. USDA Cattle on Feed will be out this afternoon. The annual Pro Farmer crop tour starts Monday.

 

US
weather forecast is unchanged, but some models are little wetter for the far WCB. TX, northern Great Plains and parts of the WCB saw rain over the past day, including IA. The 7 day shows a wet bias for the southern US. The Midwest west-central areas will see
rain Saturday before moving into the east-central areas Sunday.
China’s Yangtze Valley will continue to see unwanted net drying.

 

 

 

 

Weather

7-day,
does not include overnight rains

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUGUST 19, 2022

• Not
  many changes overnight around the world
• Rain
  is still expected to impact the southern Plains this weekend through the first part of next week resulting in a notable boost in topsoil moisture for better grazing conditions and for a better environment for early wheat planting in September
• The
  moisture will come too late for a serious change in summer crop production, although a few cotton fields may experience an increase in bolls
• U.S.
  Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt lost a little rain during the second week of the outlook overnight, but with soil conditions mostly favorable and temperatures mild the impact is unlikely to be very great
• Southwestern
  Canada’s Prairies will get some rain next week that will disrupt some harvesting in southern Alberta, but not many other areas will be impacted
• Some
  of this rain will reach briefly into the northwestern U.S. Plains as well
• Southern
  Brazil weather will be trending much drier over the next week to ten days
• Argentina’s
  dry western wheat areas will continue dry, but some showers may reach eastern crop areas late next week
• Europe
  will experience showers this weekend and again late next week into the following weekend with warm and dry weather expected in between those periods
• No
  significant change in dryness is expected, although the showers will be welcome
• Greatest
  rain will be in the Alps
• Russia
  continues to dry out with warm temperatures, but the impact will be low since many crops were already made….some late season crop stress might have a small impact on yield and crop quality
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin is still quite dry and hot with another week of the same expected
• Northern
  China is plenty wet if not a little too wet and needs to dry down
• India
  will be receiving another monsoon depression today through early next week with another round of heavy rain expected from West Bengal and Odisha to Rajasthan and Pakistan then drier weather may occur for a while in central parts of the nation

Southeastern
Australia will continue wet over the next couple of weeks while Western Australia dries down

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Aug. 19:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases sugar, cane and ethanol output data
• US
  cattle on feed, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  Deere

Saturday,
Aug. 20: 

• China’s
  third batch of July trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
• AmSpec
  to release Malaysia’s Aug. 1-20 palm oil export data

Monday,
Aug. 22:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• MARS
  monthly EU crop conditions report
• US
  crop conditions for spring wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton; winter wheat harvesting, 4pm
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• US
  cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm

Tuesday,
Aug. 23:

• Sinofert
  1H results briefing

Wednesday,
Aug. 24:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  poultry slaughter

Thursday,
Aug. 25:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Aug. 1-25 palm oil export data
• USDA
  red meat production

Friday,
Aug. 26:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

EIA
RIN Generation

2022

U.S.
GENERATED 421 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN JULY, VS 491 MLN IN JUNE -EPA

U.S.
GENERATED 1.21 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN JULY, VS 1.29 BLN IN JUNE -EPA

 

VS.
2021

U.S.
GENERATED 356 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN JULY, VS 429 MLN IN JUNE -EPA

U.S.
GENERATED 1.27 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN JULY, VS 1.27 BLN IN JUNE -EPA

 

 

 

Macros

Canada
Retail Sales M/M Jun: 1.1% (est 0.4%, prevR 2.3%)

Retail
Sales Ex Auto M/M Jun: 0.8% (est 0.9%, prev 1.9%)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are slightly higher with soybeans lower and wheat higher. We look for a lower trade based on favorable US weather for most of the Corn Belt and SA corn harvest suggesting USDA is too low on current crop year production
estimates for Argentina and Brazil.

·        
The annual Pro Farmer crop tour starts Monday. The WCB legs will be closely monitored.

·        
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange increased Argentina’s corn production by 3 million tons for the 2021-22 season to 52 million tons. They raised the planted area to 7.7 million hectares from 7.3 million previously. The exchange
estimated 2022-23 Argentina corn area at 7.5 million hectares, lower due to profitability. Soybeans are favored next season.

·        
French corn crop conditions fell 3 points for the week ending August 15 to 50 percent G/E and are down more than 30 points over the past month. Year ago, ratings were 91 percent.

·        
Ukraine grain shipments are running at about 3-4 cargoes per day but will need to significantly increase in order to eventually ramp up to the AgMin target of three million tons per month.

·        
A Reuters poll calls for Brazil 2021-22 corn production to end up near 115.8 million tons. Conab is at 114.5 million and USDA 116 MMT, up from 87 million for 2020-21. USDA has 126 MMT for the upcoming 2022-23 crop.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

 

Due
out Friday

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans
are lower on end of week profit taking and lower meal. Soybean oil is lower but oil share is rebounding. News was thin.

·        
No rumors this morning of China buying but yesterday we heard China bought upwards to six US cargoes of US soybeans so far this week. Most for nearby shipment.

·        
There were no 24-hour sale announcements.

·        
Malaysia November palm oil was 50MYR higher at 4093/ton, and cash was up $10.00 at $1007.50/ton.

·        
China soybean futures were down 1.0 percent, meal 0.5% higher, soybean oil down 0.4%, and palm 1.1% lower.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
unchanged to 10 euros lower earlier, and meal unchanged to up 2 euros for the positions we follow, from this time yesterday morning.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 70 points higher earlier this morning (40 higher for the week to date) and meal $6.30 short ton lower ($7.40 lower for the week to date).

 

Export
Developments

·        
Results awaited: Tunisia seeks 6,000 tons of crude degummed vegetable oil for August 27 to September 10 shipment.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat
futures are higher on technical buying after the nearby contracts took out recent contract lows on Thursday. The US southern Great Plains will see heavy precipitation over the next week, beneficial for upcoming winter wheat plantings.

·        
Paris September wheat was up 0.25 euro at 314.00 per ton as of 7:45 am CT.

·        
Matif saw strong volume yesterday.

·        
Results of Iraq’s import tender might be out next week. Bids ranged from $520 to $560 per ton for US wheat.

·        
Ukraine harvested 91% of their grain crop, or 23.4 million tons, including 17.4 million tons of wheat. Storage will be an ongoing problem.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan bought 13,400 tons of feed wheat and passed on barley in a SBS import tender. They were in for 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley for arrival by January 26.

·        
Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 34,025 tons of grade 1 milling wheat from the United States on August 25 for shipment out of the PNW between October 12 and October 26.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on September 1, optional origin, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Bloomberg) — Japan’s Pizza Hut is turning to rice to make its pizzas after wheat prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.