FI Morning Grain Comments 08/26/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
August 26, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

• Export
  sales of 100,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2021/2022 marketing year;
• Export
  sales of 133,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and
• Export
  sales of 132,150 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

US
weather outlook looks good over the near term with precipitation falling across the north central and eastern areas through Friday, then the northern Midwest Saturday and central and eastern areas Sunday through Monday. Northeastern NE will see rain through
Saturday before rain expands to other parts of NE into KS and northern OK over the weekend.  North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa over next three days will see heavy rain.  In a narrow range, today we are seeing a lower trade in most soybean contracts
(Sep up again), soybean oil, and corn.  Soybean meal was moderately higher while wheat is higher on renewed concerns over global crop quality.  WTI is lower and USD higher. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THURSDAY, AUGUST 26, 2021

• A
  tropical cyclone will develop in the Caribbean Sea today and move across western Cuba Friday and enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
  
• The
  storm will develop quickly and will become a viable hurricane as it approaches the central U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.
  
• Landfall
  is expected Sunday into Monday in Louisiana with remnants of the storm moving through the Delta to Tennessee and Kentucky during the early to middle part of next week.
  
• Damage
  to crops in the Delta and possibly Louisiana is expected and this includes sugarcane, cotton and to a lesser degree corn and soybeans.
  
• Rice
  is especially vulnerable to flooding rain right now with much of the crop maturing and readying for harvest.
  
• Elsewhere
  in the world today
• There
  was a reduction in Brazil rainfall for coffee, citrus and sugarcane areas this weekend through next week and the change was needed.
  
• Argentina
  lost a little more rain from western parts of the nation during the coming week, as well.
  
• Russia’s
  New Lands and Kazakhstan could receive some rain in the first week of September, but the coming seven days will continue dry.
  
• Northwestern
  Europe will be dry for ten days
• Partial
  relief from dryness is expected in southeastern Europe over the coming seven days as some rain and cooling takes place
• Northeastern
  Europe and the western CIS will be wettest over the next week to ten days with frequent rain expected and mild temperatures
• China
  weather will continue to be mixed with some heavy rain continuing periodically in east-central parts of the nation
• Many
  areas in China remain too wet and need to dry down soon to protect summer crop conditions
• Australia
  will continue to receive periodic showers for semi-dormant crops in the far south over the next couple of weeks
• Queensland
  and northern parts of Western Australia will need rain soon to support small grain reproduction
  
• South
  Africa showers will be limited for a while, but some rain is expected in winter crop areas over the coming week
• Tropical
  Depression 14E has formed off the southwest coast of Mexico and will be closely monitored for further development
• This
  system may move toward the southwest coast of Mexico bringing heavy rain inland Friday through Sunday from Guerrero to Jalisco and neighboring areas

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Aug. 26:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Aug. 27:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

StatsCan
is due out with Canadian production on Monday

 

USDA
export Sales

USDA
export sales were within expectations for new-crop soybeans at 1.750 million tons that included China (934,500 MT), unknown destinations (587,900), and Mexico (148,600 MT).  There was a small amount of old crop sales for China.  Soybean meal combined old and
new-crop export sales were within expectations and shipments were good at 240,300 tons.  Soybean oil sales and shipments were low, as expected.  New-crop corn export sales of 684,00 tons were above the 510,000 tons reported last week and included Mexico (492,000MT),
Japan (93,000 MT), and Colombia (51,500 MT).  All-wheat sales were a poor 116,000 tons, a marketing year low, and down from 306,700 tons previous week.  Pork sales were 24,100 tons. 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Aug 21: 353K (est 350K; prevR 349K; prev 348K)

US
Continuing Claims Aug 14: 2862K (est 2772K; prevR 2865K; prev 2820K)

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q2 S: 6.6% (est 6.7%; prev 6.5%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q2 S: 6.1% (est 6.1%; prev 6.1%)

US
Personal Consumption Q2 S: 11.9% (est 12.2%; prev 11.8%)

US
GDP Price Index Q2 S: 6.1% (est 6.0%; prev 6.0%)

 

 

Corn

·        
In a narrow range, corn futures are lower on lack of bullish news.  USDA export sales were reported at the lower end of expectations for new-crop corn. 

·        
US weather outlook looks good over the near term with precipitation falling across the north central and eastern areas through Friday, then the northern Midwest Saturday and central and eastern areas Sunday through Monday. North
Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa over next three days will see heavy rain. 

·        
WTI is lower and USD higher. 

·        
IGC estimated global corn production at 1.202 billion tons, unchanged from their previous forecast. 

·        
China pork prices fell 2.6% for the week ending Aug 20 to 20.21 yuan ($3.12) per kilo and are down 57.6% from a year ago.

·        
South Korea reported another African Swine Fever case from a local farm in Gangwon Province. 

·        
Weekly US ethanol production last week was off 40,000 barrels to 933,000 barrels (trade was looking up 2,000) and stocks were down 335,000 barrels to 21.223 million barrels (trade looking for a 39,000 decrease) from the previous
week.  We are using 5.056 billion bushels, below USDA’s estimate of 5.075 billion.  For 2021-22, we have 5.250 billion, 50 million below USDA.

·        
The weekly USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the United States up 3 percent and chicks placed up 1 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021, through August 21, 2021, for the United States were
6.17 billion. Cumulative placements were up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported 100,000 tons of new-crop corn to Columbia. 
  
• South
  Korea’s NOFI group bought 135,000 tons of corn. 
• 68,000
  tons was bought at an estimated 265 cents a bushel c&f over the December for arrival in South Korea around Nov. 21. 
  
• 67,000
  tons was bought at an estimated 266 cents a bushel c&f over the December for arrival in South Korea around Dec. 1.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans and soybean oil are lower and meal slightly higher.  Traders are looking for guidance on lack of fresh news.  There were no surprises in this week’s USDA export sales. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 44 points lower and meal $2.00 higher.

·        
China soybean futures were up 49 yuan or 0.8%.  China meal was up 0.1% and soybean oil was up 112 or 1.2%.  Palm was 1.6% higher. 

·        
Indonesia plans to raise its palm oil-based biodiesel blend to 40% from a mandatory 30%.  No set time was given for the increase but it’s unlikely it will be increased over the next year. 

·        
Malaysian palm oil was up 28 to 4,392 ringgit and cash up $15/ton to $1,105. 

·        
Malaysian palm oil

·        
China cash crush margins were last positive 123 cents on our analysis (142 previous) versus 110 cents late last week and 90 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

·        
Argentina decided to create its own agency to control the shipping along the major waterways, creating speculation tolls (or taxes) could increase for agriculture shippers. 

·        
(Bloomberg) — Indonesia’s weather agency forecasts early rainy season in almost half of the country’s weather zones, starting Sept.-Oct.

Agency
expects rainy season to last until March with normal intensity of rainfall in most of the zones, said Dwikorita Karnawati, head of the weather agency that is locally known as BMKG, on Thursday

Only
26% of the zones to see higher intensity

 

Export
Developments

·        
India bought spot Argentina soybean meal.  A least a couple cargoes were bought and they are in for more today. 

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported 133,000 tons of new-crop soybeans to China and 132,150 tons to unknown. 
  

 

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat futures are higher on renewed global crop concerns. 

·        
All wheat export sales fell from the previous week and were a marketing year low. 

·        
IGC estimated global world wheat production at 782 tons, down 6 million tons from their previous forecast. 

·        
The USD was 17 points higher as of early this morning. 

·        
Belarus banned grain exports for six months to help keep domestic prices cool. 

·        
December Paris wheat was up 1.25 euros at 245.25.  September was 5.25 higher at 250.50, a 2.1% increase. 

 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of feed barley out of 120,000 tons sought, at an estimated $317.00 a ton c&f for shipment in the first half of December. 

·        
Tunisia’s lowest offer for 100,000 tons of soft wheat was $349.89/ton c&f.  They are also in for 100,000 tons of animal feed barley for late Sep through October shipment.  They last bought wheat on August 6 at $312.89/ton c&f. 

·        
The Philippines passed on 168,000 tons of feed wheat due to high prices.  Origin was initially EU, Black Sea or Australian for Sep 17-Nov 18 shipment. 

·        
The Philippines seek 60,000 tons of feed wheat on August 27 for Sep/Oct shipment. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on September 1. 

·        
Japan bought 81,853 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada.  Original details as follows:

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons wheat on September 1.

·        
Turkey seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on September 2 for September 10 through October 10 shipment.  They last bought 11.5% and 12.5% wheat on August 4 at $297.40-$308.90/ton c&f. 

·        
Taiwan weeks 48,875 tons of US wheat on September 3 for October 15-Novmeber 1 shipment.  They last bought US wheat on August 6, various classes at various prices. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 47,000 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on Sept. 21 for various 2022 shipment.

 

Rice/Other

• China’s
  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated early rice production increasing 2.7 to 28.02 million tons, up 723,000 tons from 2020.
• Egypt
  seeks 200,000 tons of raw sugar for Oct-Dec shipment on August 28. 

 

USDA export Sales

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  8/19/21

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	90.5	1,472.8	1,856.3	248.3	1,778.8	2,636.9	0.0	0.0
SRW	4.1	841.6	638.3	52.0	757.8	446.3	0.0	0.0
HRS	21.1	1,121.8	1,882.5	170.3	1,461.3	1,572.8	0.0	0.0
WHITE	0.2	673.1	1,200.7	204.1	970.1	1,029.1	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.1	7.4	250.9	1.1	43.2	213.3	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	116.0	4,116.7	5,828.6	675.8	5,011.2	5,898.4	0.0	0.0
BARLEY	0.4	21.4	30.8	1.0	3.9	8.4	0.0	0.0
CORN	6.6	4,151.6	2,333.8	760.5	66,172.6	42,158.0	684.0	19,282.7
SORGHUM	53.1	296.0	229.1	125.9	6,838.6	4,396.1	0.0	1,594.9
SOYBEANS	75.1	2,196.5	4,308.3	260.1	59,963.4	42,975.8	1,750.0	15,615.0
SOY MEAL	61.7	1,406.9	1,284.4	240.3	10,655.3	10,760.7	139.5	1,661.5
SOY OIL	3.0	20.0	139.6	0.5	666.5	1,128.3	0.0	0.7
RICE
L G RGH	38.5	209.9	163.1	50.8	86.9	49.5	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	8.8	27.9	0.2	0.4	1.0	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	1.8	8.7	0.4	10.9	2.0	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	22.3	22.3	26.1	0.1	0.3	5.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	17.2	167.5	69.4	26.0	52.9	11.9	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.4	56.2	52.9	4.4	27.3	34.1	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	79.5	466.6	348.0	81.9	178.6	104.3	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	245.1	4,850.5	5,874.1	201.7	613.4	977.7	67.9	643.5
PIMA	14.3	119.2	183.6	8.0	19.3	24.3	0.0	0.0

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period August 13-19, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 116,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 62 percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Peru (80,200 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),
the Philippines (47,800 MT, including 42,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT), Thailand (47,000 MT), Nigeria (38,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Guatemala (31,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset
by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (176,400 MT).  Exports of 675,800 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 14 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (169,100 MT), the
Philippines (107,800 MT), Mexico (93,300 MT), South Korea (81,400 MT), and Japan (63,500 MT).

Corn: 
Net sales of 6,600 MT for 2020/2021 were down 97 percent from the previous week and 95 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (132,000 MT, including decreases of 11,900 MT), Canada (46,900 MT), Guatemala (12,300 MT, including
7,500 MT switched from Nicaragua and 1,100 switched from Costa Rica, and 2,000 MT switched from El Salvador), Taiwan (9,800 MT), and Honduras (7,300 MT, including 7,500 MT switched from Nicaragua, 5,100 MT switched from El Salvador, and decreases of 5,300
MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (135,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 684,000 MT primarily for Mexico (492,000 MT), Japan (93,000 MT), Colombia (51,500 MT), Nicaragua (10,000 MT), and Jamaica (10,000 MT), were offset by reductions for
unknown destinations (3,500 MT).  Exports of 760,500 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (340,800 MT), Mexico (265,800 MT), Nicaragua (30,100 MT), Guatemala (28,100
MT), and Venezuela (25,000 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 30,500 MT is for unknown destinations.  For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 60,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations.  The current outstanding balance of 110,000 MT is for unknown destinations.

Barley: 
Total net sales for 2021/2022 of 400 MT were for Taiwan.  Exports of 1,000 MT were up 65 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to Japan.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 53,100 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for unknown destinations (30,000 MT) and China (16,800 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT).  Exports of 125,900 MT
were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was primarily to China (124,800 MT).

Rice:
 Net
sales of 79,500 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for Mexico (33,700 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), South Korea (22,200 MT), Guatemala (16,400 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from El Salvador), Canada (5,000 MT), and Costa Rica (2,500 MT), were offset by reductions
primarily for El Salvador (3,000 MT).  Exports of 81,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (38,000 MT), Haiti (15,200 MT), Nicaragua (10,800 MT), Honduras (5,400 MT), and Guatemala (5,000 MT). 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 75,100 MT for 2020/2021 were up 11 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (90,800 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), the
Netherlands (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (21,100 MT), Indonesia (19,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Vietnam (5,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown
destinations (131,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 1,750,000 MT were primarily for China (934,500 MT), unknown destinations (587,900), Mexico (148,600 MT), Taiwan (26,500 MT), and Indonesia (15,400 MT).  Exports of 260,100 MT were up 1 percent from the
previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (76,600 MT), China (71,200 MT), the Netherlands (66,000 MT), Indonesia (12,000 MT), and Colombia (7,100 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 61,700 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down 14 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Colombia (15,400 MT, including decreases of 10,800 MT), Canada (15,300 MT, including
decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (10,700 MT, including decrease of 7,600 MT), Turkey (6,400 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from the United Kingdom), and the Philippines (5,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Honduras (9,500 MT) and the United Kingdom
(6,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 139,500 MT were primarily for the Philippines (90,000 MT), Canada (33,900 MT), and Colombia (12,000 MT).  Exports of 240,300 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (80,200 MT), the Philippines (45,300 MT), Colombia (26,400 MT), Turkey (21,400 MT), and Canada (19,300 MT). 

Export
Adjustments: 
Accumulated exports of soybean cake and meal to Canada were adjusted down 494 MT for the week ending August 12^th.  This shipment was reported in error.

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 3,000 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 90 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Canada (3,200 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (300 MT).  Exports of 500 MT were
up 15 percent from the previous week, but down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to Canada.

Cotton: 
Net sales of 245,100 RB for 2021/2022 were primarily for El Salvador (67,100 RB), Turkey (61,100 RB), Pakistan (35,000 RB), Honduras (26,500 RB), and Vietnam (14,900 RB, including 5,200 RB switched from China, 300 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 1,100
RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 67,900 RB were primarily for El Salvador (48,000 RB) and Honduras (18,900 RB).  Exports of 201,700 RB were primarily to Pakistan (42,700 RB), Turkey (29,700 RB), Vietnam (27,200 RB), China (26,000 RB), and Mexico (20,900 RB). 
Net sales of Pima totaling 14,300 RB were primarily for India (7,600 RB), China (2,200 RB), Turkey (1,700 RB), Peru (1,400 RB), and Thailand (1,000 RB).  Exports of 8,000 RB were primarily to China (1,800 RB), Peru (1,500 RB), Honduras (1,400 RB), India (1,200
RB), and Bangladesh (600 RB).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 8,800 RB were reported for Pakistan.  The current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB is for Pakistan. 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 4,800 RB is for China (4,700 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 229,600 pieces for 2021 were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (80,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 19,200 pieces), South Korea (62,800 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,100 pieces), Thailand (26,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,000 pieces), Taiwan (18,000 whole cattle hides, including decrease of 500 pieces), and Mexico (16,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100
pieces), were offset by reductions for Turkey (100 whole cattle hides) and Japan (100 whole cattle hides).  Total net sales of 1,300 kip skins were reported for China.  Exports of 554,300 pieces were up 52 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (403,700 pieces), South Korea (54,700 pieces), Mexico (24,900 pieces), Thailand (24,000 pieces), and Ethiopia (12,000 pieces).  In addition, exports of 2,600 kip skins were to China.

Net
sales of 121,200 wet blues for 2021 were up 7 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (42,300 unsplit), China (30,100 unsplit), Italy (25,400 unsplit, including deceases of 200 unsplit and
100 grain splits), the Dominican Republic (8,800 unsplit and 7,200 grain splits), and Taiwan (6,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Mexico (900 unsplit).  Total net sales reductions for 2022 of 16,000 pieces were for Italy.  Exports of 210,800 wet
blues were up 43 percent
from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (89,900 unsplit), Vietnam (49,400 unsplit), Italy (31,500 unsplit and 7,400 grain splits), Taiwan (11,400 unsplit), and Mexico (8,600 grain splits and 2,500
unsplit).  Net sales of 972,700 splits were reported for Vietnam (800,000 pounds), Taiwan (168,700 pounds), and China (4,000 pounds, including decreases of 1,100 pounds).  Exports of 415,100 pounds were to China (250,400 pounds), Taiwan (84,700 pounds), and
Vietnam (80,000 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 10,400 MT reported for 2021 were down 6 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (2,500 MT, including decreases of 500 MT),
China (1,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Hong Kong (900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Taiwan (600 MT, including 100 MT switched from the Philippines and decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 18,700 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week
and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,400 MT), South Korea (5,300 MT), China (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net
sales of 24,100 MT reported for 2021 were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (14,300 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT),
Canada (2,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Colombia (1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (1,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for the Philippines (1,600 MT).  Exports of 29,900 MT were up 4 percent
from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,100 MT), China (4,600 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT). 

August
26, 2021                                               1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA