FI Morning Grain Comments 08/26/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
24-H: Private exporters reported sales of 146,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Yesterday
afternoon – USDA RETRACTED WEEKLY EXPORT SALES DATA DISSEMINATED EARLIER THURSDAY – Reuters News

https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/statement-usda-foreign-agricultural-service-regarding-weekly-export-sales-reporting

 

US
equities are pointing towards a mixed to higher open ahead of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech at 10 am EDT. USD is sharply lower and WTI crude oil mixed. Most CBOT ag markets are rebounding from Thursday’s selling, in part to USDA confirming weekly export
sales data were off the mark and ongoing concerns over US, EU and China crop conditions. Half of China is now thought to be experiencing some type of drought. French corn crop conditions as of August 22 fell 3 points to 47 percent. Pro Farmer crop tour reported
yields and pod counts for western IA and MN better than that of other areas, but we think the overall US yield, when updated after the close, will be below USDA August. Weather forecast is unchanged. The US Midwest will see rain northwest Saturday and western
areas Sunday. Parts of HRW wheat country will see rain on and off bias the southwestern areas over the next 7 days.

 

IA
corn yields were projected at 183.81 bushels per acre (bpa), the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said, smaller than the 2021 crop tour average of 190.76 bpa but about the same as the three-year crop tour average of 183.80 bpa.

The
four-day crop tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Iowa at an average of 1,174.43 pods. That is down from last year’s average of 1,217.80 pods but above the three-year average of 1,157.00
pods. (Reuters)

 

Minnesota
corn yields were projected at 190.39 bushels per acre (bpa), the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said, bigger than the 2021 crop tour average of 177.44 bpa and above the three-year crop tour average of 180.96 bpa.

The
four-day crop tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Minnesota at an average of 1,100.75 pods, up from last year’s average of 1,027.33 pods and above the three-year average of 1,026.16 pods.
(Reuters)

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUGUST 26, 2022

• Rain
  was removed from the U.S. outlook in the central Plains and from there into the central Midwest relative to recent days of forecast model runs
• The
  reduction was needed
• U.S.
  Midwest weather will be mixed with alternating periods of rain and sunshine and seasonable temperatures supporting late season crop development
• U.S.
  Gulf of Mexico Coast States will see frequent rainfall especially next week and into the following weekend
• Tropical
  cyclones are still possible in the Atlantic Ocean Basin during the next ten days, but no immediate threat is expected through the weekend or into early next week
  
• Western
  Russia and parts of Ukraine will experience light rain showers and cooler temperatures in the second half of next week through Sep. 8
• The
  change will be welcome after an extended period of warm and dry conditions that depleted soil moisture, but the resulting rainfall in key Russian winter wheat areas is still too light to fix moisture deficits
• Drying
  will continue from parts of Ukraine into Belarus and Russia’s Southern Region
• Greatest
  rainfall in Europe next ten days will be in southern France, northern Italy and from a part of the Balkan Countries into eastern Germany and western Poland
• Northern
  France, southern U.K. and western Germany rainfall will stay limited over the next ten days, despite some increasing shower activity
• Northern
  parts of China’s Yangtze River Basin will get some needed rain next week and into the following weekend
• Approximately30-40%
  of the driest region will get some relief
• Dryness
  will continue for another ten days in the south-central Yangtze Basin; including Hunan, Jiangxi and immediate bordering areas
• Many
  areas will still be too dry
• Cooling
  is expected over the week next week too
• Northeast
  China and northern parts of the North China Plain will experience less frequent and less intensive rain and that will prove to be good for summer crops
• Australia
  weather will remain mostly good
• Argentina’s
  western wheat areas will remain dry through the next ten days
• Northwestern
  India and Pakistan will dry down for a while in the coming ten days while rain falls in most other areas in India
• Erratic
  rainfall of limited significance is advertised for Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains through the weekend and then dry and warm weather is expected most of next week and into the following weekend
• The
  drier and warmer than usual weather will be ideal for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• Accelerated
  soil moisture depletion will also occur

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Aug. 26:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
Aug. 29:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions for corn, soybeans and cotton; spring wheat harvesting, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Canada’s
  Statcan publishes data on production of wheat, canola and barley
• Vietnam’s
  general statistics department releases coffee, rice and rubber export data for August
• HOLIDAY:
  UK

Tuesday,
Aug. 30:

• No
  major event scheduled

Wednesday,
Aug. 31:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  August palm oil export data
• US
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Malaysia

Thursday,
Sept. 1:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia hosts International Cocoa Conference, day 1
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

Friday,
Sept. 2:

• FAO
  world food price index, grains supply and demand outlook
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia hosts International Cocoa Conference, day 2

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Personal Income (M/M) Jul: 0.2% (est 0.6%; prev R 0.7%)

–
Personal Spending (M/M): 0.1% (est 0.5%; prev R 1.0%)

–
Real Personal Spending (M/M): 0.2% (est 0.4%; prev 0.1%)

US
PCE Deflator (M/M): -0.1% (est 0.0%; prev 1.0%)

–
PCE Deflator (Y/Y): 6.3% (est 6.4%; prev 6.8%)

–
PCE Core Deflator (M/M): 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.6%)

–
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y): 4.6% (est 4.7%; prev 4.8%)

US
Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Jul P: 0.8% (est 1.4%; prev R 1.9%)

US
Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Jul P: 0.8% (est 1.4%; prev R 1.9%)

US
Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Jul: -89.1B (est -98.5B; prev -98.6B)

 

 

Corn

·        
Most CBOT ag markets are rebounding from Thursday’s selling, in part to USDA confirming weekly export sales data were off the mark and ongoing concerns over US, EU and China crop conditions.

·        
US equities are pointing towards a mixed to higher open ahead of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech at 10 am EDT.

·        
USD is lower and WTI crude oil higher (nearby).

·        
Half of China is now thought to be experiencing some type of drought.

·        
French corn crop conditions as of August 22 fell 3 points to 47 percent (91% year ago), an all-time low for this time of year, and down about 35 points since early July.

·        
Pro Farmer crop tour reported yields and pod counts for western IA and MN better than that of other areas, but we think the overall US yield, when updated after the close, will be below USDA August for corn and soybeans.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans and soybean meal are higher and soybean oil mixed in part to technical rebound after yesterday’s losses.

·        
Additional unwanted rain fell across the Delta fell over the past day.

·        
Pro Farmer crop tour pod counts over the past four days suggest a lower yield than that of USDA but we warn in past years final yields have surprised the trade (higher than expected).

·        
Malaysia November palm oil was 86 ringgit lower at 4172 per ton, and cash was down $25.505 at $1018/ton.

·        
China soybean futures were up 1.7 percent, meal 1.6% lower, soybean oil down 0.1%, and palm 0.3% lower.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
2-10 euros higher, and meal 10-24 lower for the positions we follow, from this time yesterday morning.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO flat (86 lower for the week) earlier this morning and meal $0.70 short ton
higher
($0.60 higher for the week).

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported sales of 146,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

·        
China sold 27,333 tons of soybeans out of the 500,000 tons offered, after selling nothing last week.

·        
For China’s 14^th weekly soybean auction set for September 2, they look for sell 500,000 tons.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat
futures are higher for Chicago and mixed for KC and MN. USD is down more than 40 points and that should lend support.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 2.00 euros at 320 per ton as of 7:30 am CT.

·        
There were no export developments reported Friday.

·        
Ukraine’s 2022 wheat harvest is nearly complete. July through August 26 grain shipments total 3.41 million tons (2.18 MMT corn), half of what was exported same period year ago.

·        
Weather forecast is unchanged. Parts of HRW wheat country will see rain on and off bias the southwestern areas over the next 7 days.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on August 31 for Dec-Feb shipment. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on August 30.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on September 1, optional origin, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.

 

Rice/Other

·        
India is looking at restricting 100 percent broken rice exports, used mainly for feed. India accounts for about 40 percent of global exports.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on September 6.