FI Morning Grain Comments 09/08/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

StatsCan
reported bearish stocks for July 31 Canadian canola and all-wheat. Soybeans and corn are seeing a light technical rebound.  Wheat was mixed to lower.  USD is higher, WTI up more than 90 cents and equities mixed.  USDA reported US corn conditions declined 1
point to 59 (trade 60) and soybeans improved one point to 57 (trade 57).  Offshore values are leading the soybean products higher.  Look for positioning ahead of USDA’s S&D update to increase today into Thursday. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 8, 2021

• Tranquil
  weather is expected in the U.S. for the next ten days with good summer crop maturation and harvest conditions expected.
  
• Rain
  will fall a little more abundantly in the Gulf of Mexico coastal states.
• Canada’s
  southern Prairies will remain drier biased for a while as well supporting harvest progress there as well.
  
• In
  South America, southeastern Argentina will receive a little more rain, but this week’s weather has been almost ideal for winter crop areas
• More
  moisture is needed in western Argentina.
• In
  Brazil, rain will continue periodically in the far south and there is a good chance that northwestern Mato Grosso will begin receiving enough rain this weekend and next week to begin moistening the soil for early season soybean planting later this month.
  
• Northwestern
  India will begin receiving significant rainfall today and the wet biased pattern will prevail for ten days and could result in some flooding.
  
• East-central
  China will dry down for a while and the northeastern provinces will continue a little wetter than desired.
  
• In
  Russia, the New Lands will become wetter over the next ten days slowing harvest progress.
  
• Southern
  Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will remain dry. 
• Eastern
  Europe will also dry down while western parts of the continent get some periodic rainfall
• West-central
  Africa coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane areas will receive well distributed rainfall over the next two weeks

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Sept. 8:

• Meat
  Atlas 2021 – facts and figures about the animals people eat
• Canada’s
  StatsCan releases data on wheat, barley, canola and durum stockpiles

Thursday,
Sept. 9:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Brazil’s
  Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• UkrAgroConsult
  Black Sea oilseed conference

Friday,
Sept. 10:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, noon
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on August stockpiles, output and exports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Sept. 1-10 palm oil export data
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

US
inventories (Reuters)

 

US
production (Reuters)

 

World
inventories (Reuters)

 

 

 

 

 

USDA inspections versus Reuters trade range
Wheat	381,551	versus	150000-525000	range
Corn	275,799	versus	125000-550000	range
Soybeans	68,059	versus	50000-250000	range

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is higher on technical buying and higher energy prices.  US corn conditions declined 1 point to 59 (trade 60) and soybeans improved one point to 57 (trade 57).  US corn conditions for the G/E categories of 59 compares to
61 year ago and 64 average.  IL declined 3 points.  NE was off 3 and OH was down 5.  IN and IA improved 2 points.  Corn dough was 95 percent versus 94 average, corn dented 74 percent, above 69 average, and corn mature 21 percent versus 19 percent average. 

·        
Traders are looking for higher corn harvested area to be reported by USDA on Friday. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of September 02, 2021 were 275,799 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 583,498 tons previous week and compares to 887,889 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 174,851
tons, Japan for 49,423 tons, and Taiwan for 1,690 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
South Korea’s NOFI rejected up to 69,000 tons of corn, 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 15,000 tons feed barley, due to high prices.  The corn and wheat was for arrival in South Korea in December 2021, and the barley in January 2022.
Lowest price for the corn was $317.95 a ton. 

·        
China plans to sell 133,753 tons of US corn on September 10 and 8,277 tons from Ukraine. 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
US soybeans are higher on technical buying and higher trade in soybean oil.  The strength in soybean oil reflects a higher trad in WTI crude oil and higher palm oil futures & cash.  Soybean meal is on the defensive from spreading.

·        
StatsCanada reported a bearish July 31 Canadian canola stocks of 1.767 million tons, 567,000 tons above trade expectations, but this seems to have little influence on US soybeans and ICE canola futures (November canola 9.10 @
7:50 am CT). 

·        
US corn conditions declined 1 point to 59 (trade 60) and soybeans improved one point to 57 (trade 57).  US soybean conditions for the G/E categories of 57 compares to 65 year ago and 64 average.  Il was down 6 points, LA down
5, MI down 8 and OH down 4.  KS improved 4 points.  Soybeans setting pods were 96 percent versus 96 average and soybeans dropping leaves were 18 percent versus 15 average. 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of September 02, 2021 were 68,059 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 386,839 tons previous week and compares to 1,512,819 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for
44,192 tons, Indonesia for 8,400 tons, and Vietnam for 3,083 tons.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 141 points higher and meal $0.70 higher.

·        
Malaysian palm oil

·        
China cash crush margins were last positive 139 cents on our analysis (unchanged from previous) versus 115 cents late last week and 84 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

 

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is mixed.  Global import demand is strong with Egypt, Algeria, and Pakistan in for wheat. 

·        
StatsCan reported a bearish July 31 all-wheat stocks of 5.705 million tons, 905,000 tons above an average trade guess and above 2020. 

·        
US winter wheat plantings were reported at 5 percent complete, one point above expectations and compares to 5 year ago and 3 percent average. 

·        
US spring wheat is 95 percent harvested at expectations and well above 83 percent average. 

·        
Ukraine exported 9.53 million tons of grain so far in the 2021-22 July-June season versus 8.86 million at the same point a year earlier.  That included 5.33 million tons of wheat, 2.88 million tons of barley and 1.28 million tons
of corn.

·        
India raised their purchase price for wheat they buy from farmers but there is backlash as it may not be enough of an increase to cover the cost of cultivation.  New-crop wheat was seen increasing by 2% to 2,015 rupees ($27.39)
per 100 kg.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of September 02, 2021 were 381,551 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 370,461 tons previous week and compares to 699,386 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for
103,084 tons, Philippines for 62,999 tons, and Taiwan for 57,422 tons.

·        
December Paris wheat was unchanged at 242.25 euros. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Egypt seeks wheat for October 25 through November 3 shipment.  The lowest offer was believed to be $310.25 a ton FOB for wheat sourced from Ukraine.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of wheat for late December through February 14 shipment. 

·        
South Korea’s NOFI rejected up to 69,000 tons of corn, 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 15,000 tons feed barley, due to high prices.  The corn and wheat was for arrival in South Korea in December 2021, and the barley in January 2022. 
Lowest price for the feed wheat was $347.70 a ton c&f. 

·        
Algeria seeks at least 50,000 tons of barley for October shipment. 

·        
Japan’s Ministry in their regular SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival in Japan by Feb. 24, 2022, set to close on Sept. 15.

·        
Pakistan is tendering for 550,000 tons of wheat. On Tuesday they were seeing offers at around $369.50/ton and $386.60/ton. 

·        
The Philippines seek 112,000 tons of animal feed wheat on Sept. 9 for shipment in September and October in two 56,000 tons consignments.

·        
Jordan’s seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley on September 9 for Dec-Feb shipment. 

·        
Bangladesh’s state grains buyer seeks another 50,000 tons of milling wheat on September 16. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 47,000 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on Sept. 21 for various 2022 shipment.

 

Rice/Other

• (Bloomberg) — U.S. 2021-22 cotton production seen at 17.69m bales, 428,000 bales above USDA’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg
  survey of nine analysts.

Estimates range from 17m to 18.45m bales

U.S. ending stocks seen increasing by the same amount

Global ending stocks seen 438,000 bales higher at 87.67m bales