FI Morning Grain Comments 09/12/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Mixed
trade ahead of the USDA report. Soybeans are higher in part of a large drop in the USD and higher crude oil. Soybean meal and oil are higher for that reason as well.
Grains
are mostly lower after good US weekend rains and lack of fresh news. MPOB Malaysian palm oil S&D data was released, and palm oil stocks at the end of Aug were large, as expected. China is on holiday. Offshore values were leading soybean oil 75 points lower
earlier this morning and meal $6.80 short ton higher. The US is on the brink of a crisis with a potential railroad strike that may affect multiple industries.  Look for the government to eventually step in.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-09-12/supply-chain-latest-us-railroad-strike-threatens-supply-chain-recovery

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

• Not
  much change overnight

• Beneficial
  rain fell in the western U.S. soybean production region during the weekend
• U.S.
  weather this week will be drier biased in the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
• Texas
  and much of the west-central and southern Plains will be dry biased for the next ten days
  
• Some
  wheat areas need rain for planting, emergence and establishment
• Canada’s
  Prairies will see erratic rain and stay warmer than usual during the next ten days
• Frost
  and freezes in Canada’s Prairies and the western CIS during the weekend had little impact on summer crops 
• Russia’s
  wheat areas will get some timely rainfall over the next ten days improving wheat emergence and establishment
• Rain
  from northern France through central Germany to Ukraine later this week into the weekend will be great for improving wheat, barley and rye planting and emergence
  
• Some
  winter rapeseed areas will also benefit from the moisture, but more rain will be needed in the heart of France and the U.K.
• Remnants
  of Hurricane Danielle will bring heavy rain to Portugal early this week
• Interior
  eastern China will continue dry this week leaving drought in the Yangtze River Basin unchanged
• Typhoon
  Muifa will bring heavy rain up the east coast of China this week inducing some flooding and some strong wind
  
• Port
  delays are expected in the Shanghai area 
• India’s
  Gujarat will see frequent rain this week along with central and eastern parts of the nation
  
• Northwestern
  India will be left dry along with Pakistan favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• Australia
  will continue to receive periodic rainfall this week maintaining a good outlook for winter crops
• All
  tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean have dissipated and none are expected early this week. 
• Argentina
  will continue dry into the coming weekend
• Southern
  Brazil will get some periodic rain in the coming ten days
• Center
  west Brazil will get a few showers later this week into next week, but resulting rainfall will not be enough for much planting

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Sept. 12:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• International
  Dairy Federation hosts World Dairy Summit, Sept. 12-15, New Delhi
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions for corn, soybeans and cotton; spring wheat, corn, soybean harvesting, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong, Korea

Tuesday,
Sept. 13:

• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates 2022 production estimates
• New
  Zealand Food Prices

Wednesday,
Sept. 14:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook

Thursday,
Sept. 15:

• UkrAgroConsult’s
  Agro&Food Security Forum, Warsaw
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Sept. 1-15 palm oil export data

Friday,
Sept. 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
estimates for USDA

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower on weekend US rains and lack of fresh news ahead of the USDA report.

·        
USD is sharply lower.

·        
The threat of US railroad strikes should be closely monitored. A slowdown in transportation may affect several markets and prices from ethanol deliveries to grocery store price hikes.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans, meal and oil are mostly higher following higher WTI crude oil and a sharply lower USD. 

·        
Weekend rains for the upper Midwest were heavy, good for some areas for late season development and bad for others as local flooding occurred.

·        
MPOB Malaysian palm oil S&D data was released, and stocks were large, as expected (3-year high). Bu the large end of Aug palm stocks were trumped by improving early September palm shipments.

·        
SGS reported September 1-10 palm exports at 418,120 tons, up 25.5 percent from 333,277 tons shipped during Aug 1-10.

·        
ITS reported palm Malaysian palm oil exports for the 1-10 period up 16.2 percent at 423,912 tons from 364,910 tons from the same period month. AmSpec reported 371,091 tons, versus 339,669 previous.

·        
Malaysia palm oil futures traded 89 ringgit higher to 3,683 and cash was up $2.50/ton to $910/ton.

·        
China is on holiday.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed from this time Friday morning, and SA meal 12-15 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading soybean oil 75 points lower earlier this morning and meal $6.80 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
No new developments since Friday.

·        
Results awaited. South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 30,000 tons of GMO-free soybeans on September 6 for arrival in SK between November 12 and Dec 12, and another arrival period of October 30 and November 30.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is lower but losses limited from a lower USD and another comment from a second Russian official blasting the safe passage grain deal. We are optimistic Ukraine will continue grain shipments by sea, but something to monitor. 
The agreement is expected to expire in November.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 3.50 euros earlier at 334.25 per ton.

·        
USDA is not expected to report major changes later this morning. Note Statistics Canada will have its next crop estimate on Wednesday, September 14.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Bangladesh canceled an earlier import tender for 50,000 tons of wheat set to close Aug 16.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on September 13 for March and April shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on September 14 after passing September 7 for Feb-Mar shipment. 

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on September 14 for arrival in Japan by February 24.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on September 18.  It’s for optional origin with shipment within 40 days of contract signing.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported