FI Morning Grain Comments 09/15/22

PDF attached

 

Our FI tables for USDA export sales will be updated later but note latest bell report is attached. Bottom line is that USDA export sales over the past few weeks have been good for soybeans, ok for corn and
slightly below average for wheat.

 

Good
morning.

 

The
Biden administration announced the US railroads and unions made a tentative deal after 20 hours of intense talks, according to Reuters. The deal goes to the unions to be voted on. But if the votes do not go through, a strike has been averted for several weeks
due to the standard language included in the deal.

 

USDA
export sales included data for the previous 4 weeks.

-Data
for weeks ending on August 18 and August 25 will be combined and released under week ending August 25;

-Data
for weeks ending on September 1 and September 8 will be listed individually;

-Links
will be provided to the August 25 and September 1 reports.  The ESR homepage will default to the current September 8 release.

Weekly
Highlights text will be included only for the weeks ending periods September 1 and September 8.

 

Bell
report attached

 

NOPA
crush will be out at 11 am CT.

 

Yesterday
there was chatter China bought several more soybean cargoes this week but most of that was thought to be of Argentina origin. Strategie Grains lowered its EU corn crop to 52.9 million tons from 55.4 million last month, a 15-year low. AgriCensus reported China
bought 10 more soybean cargoes from China. More than 20 cargoes have been sold, at least, since the “soybean dollar” was launched. The morning US weather outlook improved for the US Midwest. Rains will fall across the northwestern areas today-Saturday, north
central areas Sunday, and east central areas Monday. The Great Plains will see mostly dry weather.

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 15, 2022

• Brazil’s
  center west and center south crop areas will begin receiving rain next week with early soybean planting to follow the first decent rain amounts
• Early
  season corn planting and development is already advancing well in southern Brazil
  
• Concern
  over wheat conditions in Parana, Brazil will continue due to frequent rain
• Cordoba,
  Argentina will continue to go without much rain of significance
• Rain
  is expected in La Pampa, Buenos Aires and some eastern most crop areas of Argentina Sunday into the first part of next week inducing short term improvements for wheat development and for sunseed establishment
• U.S.
  Lower Midwest, Delta, southeastern states and southern Plains will experience net drying during the next ten days
• Central
  U.S. temperatures will be well above normal next week accelerating drying rates for some areas
• Limited
  rain is expected in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas during the next ten days, although complete dryness is not likely
• Canada’s
  Prairies will see some shower activity periodically possibly slowing some harvest progress, but rain amounts will not be enough to seriously change drought status
• Europe
  rainfall is expected to continue improving soil moisture except in France and the United Kingdom where limited precipitation and dryness will prevail
• Temperatures
  will be cool across Europe in this coming week
• Russia
  and Ukraine soil moisture will slowly improve as rain falls across the western CIS improving the establishment and emergence of winter crops while slowing some fieldwork
• No
  change in drought status is expected in the Yangtze River Basin during the next ten days
• Tropical
  Storm Muifa continued to produce heavy rain along the east-central China coast Wednesday and it will bring moisture to a part of northeastern China today and Friday
• Damage
  from the storm was greatest in southern Jiangsu, Shanghai and northeastern Zhejiang, but assessments of that damage are still under way
• No
  changes in India, South Africa, Southeast Asia or Australia’s weather outlooks have occurred overnight

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Sept. 15:

• UkrAgroConsult’s
  Agro&Food Security Forum, Warsaw
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Sept. 1-15 palm oil export data

Friday,
Sept. 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Retail Sales Advance (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est -0.1%; prev 0.0%)

US
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Aug: -0.3% (est 0.0%; prev 0.4%)

US
Retail Sales Ex Auto And Gas Aug: 0.3% (est 0.5%; prev 0.7%)

US
Retail Sales Control Group (M/M) Aug: 0.0% (est 0.5%; prev 0.8%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Sep 10: 213K (est 227K; prev 222K)

US
Continuing Claims Sep 3: 1.403Mln (est 1.478Mln; prev 1.473Mln)

US
Empire Manufacturing Sep: -1.5 (est -12.9; prev -31.3)

US
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep: -9.9 (est 2.3; prev 6.2)

US
Import Price Index (M/M) Aug: -1.0% (est -1.3%; prev -1.4%)

US
Import Price Index Ex Petroleum (M/M) Aug: -0.2% (est -0.6%; prev -0.7%)

US
Import Price Index (Y/Y) Aug: 7.8% (est 7.7%; prev 8.8%)

US
Export Price Index (M/M) Aug: -1.6% (est -1.1%; prev -3.3%)

US
Export Price Index (Y/Y) Aug: 10.8% (est 12.5%; prev 13.1%)

Canadian
Existing Home Sales (M/M) Aug: -1.0% (est -1.6%; prev -5.3%)

US
Industrial Production (M/M) Aug: -0.2% (est 0.0%; prev R 0.5%)

–
Capacity Utilisation: 80.0% (est 80.2%; prev R 80.2%)

–
Manufacturing (SIC) Production (M/M): 0.1% (est -0.1%; prev R 0.6%)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is higher after a choppy overnight trade.

·        
Strategie Grains lowered its EU corn crop to 52.9 million tons from 55.4 million last month, a 15-year low. They also noted EU feed grain demand could be down 5% for the 2022-23 season.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 5 percent and chicks placed up 5 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through September 10, 2022, for the United States were 6.78 billion. Cumulative
placements were up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

·        
China plans to sell 15,000 tons of pork from reserves on September 17.

·        
Weekly ethanol production fell 26,000 barrels (traders expected 9k) and stocks declined 295,000 barrels, third straight weekly draw. Production of 963,000 barrels was lowest since April 22, 2022. Stocks slipped to its lowest level
since June 24. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans and
oil are lower and meal higher.

·        
AgriCensus reported China bought 10 more soybean cargoes from China. More than 20 cargoes have been sold, at least, since the “soybean dollar” was launched.

·        
Indonesia’s September 16-30 crude oil reference price was set at $843.32//ton, down from $929.66/per previously.

·        
Malaysia will be closed for public holiday on Friday.

·        
Malaysia left its October export tax for crude palm oil unchanged at 8% and raised its reference price, to 4,033.51 ringgit ($890) per ton. The September reference price was 3,907.51 ringgit ($862.20).

·        
ITS reported Malaysian palm September 1-15 exports at 659,997 tons, up 23.8 percent from 533,050 tons during FH August. AmSpec estimated 583,446 tons versus 490,375 tons. 

·        
December Malaysia palm oil futures traded 134 ringgit lower to 3,783 and November cash was down $22.50/ton to $925.00/ton.

·        
China futures for soybeans were up 0.2%, meal down 1.7%, SBO down 0.7% and palm down 0.4%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were down 10-25 euros from this time yesterday morning. SA meal 2-7 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading soybean oil 88 points higher earlier this morning and meal $0.80 short ton lower.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
No developments.

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures are lower in Chicago and higher for KC & MN ono lack of direction and a lower USD.

·        
News is light.

·        
Russia is actively loading wheat for the Middle East and African Nations.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 3.50 euros earlier at 333.75 per ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia seeks 535,000 tons of wheat on Friday for arrival from November 10 to February 25 arrival. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin bought 97,373 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada for arrival by Dec 31.

·        
Jordan is back in September 20 for 120,000 tons of wheat.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on September 21.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on September 18.  It’s for optional origin with shipment within 40 days of contract signing.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported