FI Morning Grain Comments 09/19/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

USD
is higher, US equities lower and WTI is down more than $2.70/barrel. The bearish sentiment in energy markets are spilling over to soybean oil and corn. Wheat is sharply lower from favorable US weather and a pickup in Black Sea shipments, notably to “poorer”
countries, a topic Russia has been criticizing. Harvesting pressure is also weighing on corn and wheat. Soybeans are lower but losses are limited from a higher trade in soybean meal. Hot and dry conditions are seen for the southwestern hard red winter wheat
growing areas over the next two weeks. US crop conditions for soybeans and corn are estimated to be unchanged.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

• Some
  beneficial rain fell in Argentina Sunday improving topsoil moisture for future wheat and barley development
• The
  moisture might also be good for sunseed planting and emergence
• Brazil
  is expecting to see waves of rain over the next ten days that will prove to be supportive of early soybean planting
• Early
  corn planting and establishment will also advance well
• Too
  much rain may impact some wheat areas in Parana and surrounding states
• Coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane areas will benefit from the moisture as well
• U.S.
  weather will be mostly good for this time of year in the Midwest, southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states with a mix of rain and sunshine in the Midwest and northeastern Plains while net drying occurs in the southern states
• Canada’s
  Prairies will cool down for a little while and get some mid-week rain in the north and eastern Prairies
• No
  serious drought relief is likely in the central of southwestern Prairies
• Europe
  will get timely rainfall over the next ten days along with the western CIS with the exception of France and parts of the U.K. where dryness will prevail this workweek
• Some
  rain will fall in southern and eastern France during the weekend and next week
• Russia’s
  winter wheat and rye areas will benefit from timely rainfall in the coming ten days
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin will remain dry for the next nine to ten days leaving rice stressed and yielding poorly
• Worry
  over rapeseed planting is beginning to rise, although October and early November is the prime time for planting
• Wheat
  planting in the North China Plain is getting under way in a favorable weather environment
• Australia
  winter crops are still in favorable conditions with some areas still too wet in Victoria and eastern New South Wales
• Typhoon
  Nanmadol moved across Kyushu producing very strong wind speeds and flooding rain during the weekend causing damage to personal property, infrastructure and some agriculture
  
• The
  turned to the east and moved across much of Honshu Sunday and early today, but without the intense wind or flooding rain that impacted Kyushu
• Hurricane
  Fiona will move away from Dominican Republic today and impact a part of the southeastern Bahamas before turning out to sea to the north
  
• North
  America will not be threatened by this storm

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Sept. 19:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions for corn, soybeans and cotton; spring wheat, corn, cotton, soybean harvesting, 4pm
• MARS
  monthly crop conditions report
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  UK, Japan

Tuesday,
Sept. 20:

• China’s
  third batch of August trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Malaysia’s
  Sept. 1-20 palm oil export data
• World
  Agri-Tech Innovation Summit, London, Sept. 20-21

Wednesday,
Sept. 21:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 1
• Sugar
  and ethanol conference by Indian Sugar Mills Association and Datagro

Thursday,
Sept. 22:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 2
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• Future
  Food Tech Conference, London, Sept. 22-23

Friday,
Sept. 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 3
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Funds
were less long than expected for Chicago wheat. The other 4 major commodities came in near expectations. As of Friday, wheat is the only commodity net short for traditional funds.

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower from lower wheat and US harvesting pressure.

·        
The Delta and lower Midwest will see mostly dry conditions this week, allowing producers to collect corn. The US harvest could jump about 15 points this week.

·        
Look for producer selling from any rallies in corn futures.

·        
The USD is higher and energies lower.

·        
FOMC US rate decision is Wednesday, and many are looking for a 75 to 100 point basis increase. Several other countries will revise interest rates this week.

·        
Ukraine left their 2022 grain crop estimate unchanged at 50-52 million tons from 86 million last year. 19 million tons of wheat and 5.5 million barley was projected.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are lower but losses are limited from a higher trade in soybean meal.

·        
Last month’s US crush was lower than expected and crush rates are expected to be low during first half September. CBOT crush basis the March is off 5 cents this morning at $1.40.

·        
US crop conditions for soybeans and corn are estimated to be unchanged. We will be updating production and balance sheets after the crop progress report. Our bias is to lower corn and soybean exports before addressing the other
demand categories.

·        
September grain stocks are due out a week from Friday.

·        
(Bloomberg) — Bunge to Sell Oilseed Processing Business in Russia, according to a press release. Bunge today announced that it has agreed to sell its oilseed processing business in Russia to Karen Vanetsyan, the controlling shareholder
of Exoil Group.

·        
Malaysia is back from a one day holiday. December palm oil futures fell 83 points to 3700 and cash was off $12.00/ton to $912.50.

·        
China futures for soybeans were up 0.4%, meal up 0.2%, SBO slightly higher and palm up 0.8%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were up 10-15 euros from this time Friday morning. SA meal was lower by 1-5 euros.

·        
Offshore values were leading soybean oil 147 points lower earlier this morning and meal $4.80 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is sharply lower from favorable US weather and a pickup in Black Sea shipments, notably to “poorer” countries, a topic Russia has been criticizing. Harvesting pressure is also weighing on corn and wheat.

·        
Although Ukraine shipments are increasing, grain shipments so far this season are down 46 percent from year ago at 6.364 million tons.

·        
A lower USD is also weighing on wheat.

·        
IKAR raised their estimate for 2022 Russia wheat production to 99 million tons, a 2 million ton increase from their previous forecast. Russian exports were seen at 47.5 million tons, a record if realized.

·        
Hot and dry conditions are seen for the US southwestern hard red winter wheat growing areas over the next two weeks.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 5.75 euros earlier at 328.25 per ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia bought 556,000 tons of wheat at an average price of $371.61/ton c&f for November-February shipment.

·        
Bangladesh cancelled their import tender for 50,000 tons of wheat. They recently bought wheat from Ukraine and Bulgaria.

·        
Pakistan seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on September 26 for October shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in September 20 for 120,000 tons of wheat.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on September 21.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported