FI Morning Grain Comments 09/21/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

FOMC
US rate decision is later today, and many are looking for a 75 (consensus) to 100-point basis increase.

 

US
weather forecast is unchanged. Brazil improves with widespread rains moving into Mato Grosso and surrounding states. Argentina will still see light rains but much more is needed. Corn turned lower on weakness in meal. Wheat is higher on follow through buying
despite a 46-point increase in the USD. Paris wheat was up just over 2 percent this morning. Earlier the USD hit a fresh 20-year high. Soybean oil is higher following strength in WTI. Soybean meal is lower on technical selling after leading the complex higher
on Tuesday.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

• Tropical
  Storm Gaston developed overnight in the north-central Atlantic Ocean, but it will not be a threat to land
• Another
  disturbance in the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands still has potential to become the next named tropical cyclone and the system will reach into the Caribbean Sea this weekend
• The
  storm would not likely be named prior to Sunday as it remains a very weak disturbance for the next few days
• U.S.
  weather through next week is expected to be favorably mixed for late season summer crop filling, maturation and harvest progress
• Rain
  is still advertised for a part of the U.S. Central Plains wheat  country for later today into Friday Morning
• Nebraska,
  northeastern Colorado and northern Kansas are favored for 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain
• Drought
  will prevail in central and southwestern Canada’s Prairies
• Brazil’s
  center west and center south crop areas are still poised to receive significant rain in the next ten days
• Enough
  rain should fall to support early season soybean planting, continued early season corn planting and development
• The
  moisture will also be good for future rice and cotton planting
• Argentina’s
  rainfall in the coming week to ten days is expected to be erratic and a light with a need for greater moisture
• Europe
  rain will continue improving with rising soil moisture for many areas
• France
  and the U.K. will be last to get rain, but they are expected to eventually benefit
• Russia
  and Ukraine weather will continue to improve for planting, emerging and establishing winter crops
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin will continue to see very little rainfall through the next ten days
• China’s
  North China Plain and Yellow River Basin will get some needed moisture late next week that will improve wheat planting and emergence conditions
• Central
  and eastern India will receive widespread rain in the next ten days while the northwest and neighboring areas of Pakistan are dry
• Eastern
  Australia is expected to stay wet with rain today and Thursday and again early to mid-week next week
• Western
  Australia will see restricted rainfall, but some timely rain will continue
• Eastern
  South Africa will receive additional rain today with other showers likely in the remainder of the nation late in the weekend and early next week
  
• The
  moisture will improve early season spring planting moisture and benefit a few winter crops

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Sept. 21:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 1
• Sugar
  and ethanol conference by Indian Sugar Mills Association and Datagro

Thursday,
Sept. 22:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 2
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• Future
  Food Tech Conference, London, Sept. 22-23

Friday,
Sept. 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 3
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

FOMC
US rate decision is later today, and many are looking for a 75-to-100-point basis increase.

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn was slightly lower early this morning on lack of fresh news and Black Sea shipping uncertainty. The USD is higher and energies mixed.

·        
President Putin is looking to call up additional troops (300,000) for the Ukraine operation. He also raised his threat over the use of nuclear weapons. Yesterday Russia moved to annex a large portion of Ukraine.

·        
China plans to release 14,400 tons of pork from state reserves on September 23. For the entire month, China was thought to release a combined 200,000 tons of pork, according to AgriCensus.

·        
Bloomberg survey: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 2.1%. August placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 2.06m head. Reuters estimates below.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 1,000 thousand to 964k (930-970 range) from the previous week and stocks down 252,000 barrels to 22.591 million.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans fell during the early morning trade after soybean oil gave up some gains. Soybean oil found strength overnight from a higher WTI crude oil trade. Meal was lower from a correction in Tuesday’s gains/technical selling.

·        
Yesterday Argentina said they will no longer allow soybean exporters to trade on alternative markets, effectively tightening access to the foreign exchange market. The Argentine government is not allowing farmers who already sold
soybeans at the 200-peso vs USD rate, which in turn is again slowing farmer sales. Farmers who have yet to sell can still sell at the soy dollar rate through the end of the month.

·        
We are hearing 650,000 tons of soybeans exchanged hands in the local market yesterday. China was also back in looking for Argentina soybeans. At least one cargo traded today. An estimated 55+ cargoes were thought to have been
sold to China this season, most of it this month.

·        
Argentina new producer sales were 5.7 million tons as of September 19, according to a AgriCensus contact.

·        
Cargo surveyor SGS reported month to date September 20 Malaysian palm exports at 952,888 tons, 234,597 tons above the same period a month ago or up 32.7%, and 117,208 tons below the same period a year ago or down 11.0%.

·        
Brazil’s weather forecast improves this week with scattered rainfall expected across most of the growing areas.
Argentina
rainfall will be light over the next ten days to two weeks.

·        
Malaysian December palm oil futures increased 150 points to 3887 (4%) and cash was up $20/ton to $935/ton.

·        
China futures for soybeans were up 1.0%, meal up 1.7%, SBO 1.5% higher and palm up 1.0%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were up 30 euros from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was higher by 10 to 13 euros.

·        
Offshore values were leading soybean oil 24 points higher earlier this morning and meal $1.00 short ton lower.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures are higher in the front months on follow through buying and Black Sea tensions.

·        
Ukraine grain shipments to date are down 43 percent to 6.88 million tons, according to the AgMin.

·        
Iraq plans to increase wheat plantings to 750,000 hectares from 625,000 last season. Plantings begin October.

·        
Paris December wheat was up 7.50 euros earlier at 346.75 per ton, highest since July 11.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
The Philippines seek 45,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat on September 22 for Dec-Feb shipment.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of barley. Jordan is back in for barley on September 28.

·        
Pakistan seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on September 26 for October shipment.

·        
Jordan opened a new import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close Sep 27 for March and April shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported