FI Morning Grain Comments 09/22/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
reported private exporters reported the following sales activity:

-105,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-101,600
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

Day
after a US rate hike of 75 points, the USD extended gains earlier (fresh 20-year high) but back off paired gains by 7:45 am CT. Yesterday traders were signaling another 75-point rate increase for the next FMOC meeting. Inflation concerns might be in focus
for many commodity traders over the next several weeks. US crude oil is higher and equities mostly higher. With the wild USD currency appreciation, Japan intervened for the first time since 1998 to support the yen.

 

USDA
export sales were poor for the soybean complex and grains. The soybean complex and corn are firmer this morning on technical buying. Wheat is seeing a slight correction after rallying over the past two days. Matif wheat is a euro lower. Option trading yesterday
for Paris wheat was well above average with more than 27,100 lots exchanging hands. Traders will be monitoring Black Sea developments. The wheat crop in Argentina is struggling from drought and may limit losses for CBOT wheat. 

 

US
weather forecast is unchanged. Rains
favor the southwestern Midwest today, northwest Friday and north central/eastern areas Saturday this weekend. The central and northern areas of the US Great Plains will see rain this weekend. Brazil will see rain over the next week while Argentina’s forecast
is unchanged, calling for light rain across La Pampa and southern BA Sunday into early next week.

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

• Frost
  and freezes occurred across portions of the north-central U.S. Plains ending the growing season with a few extreme lows dipping into the upper 20s Fahrenheit
• The
  impact of the cold should not be too great, but some of the crops in the region were not fully mature
• A
  tropical cyclone is still advertised to evolve in the Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days and eventually threaten the United States
• The
  disturbance today is very near to the South America coast, but it will move into the heart of the Caribbean Sea Friday into Saturday at which time development will begin.
  
• Cuba,
  and the southeastern United States are at risk of being impacted and the system could become a hurricane
• Rain
  was removed from the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin during the second week of the forecast today; otherwise, there was not much change for China, India, Australia, Europe or western Asia
• Some
  rain of benefit occurred in the central U.S. Plains overnight lifting topsoil moisture for some improvement in wheat planting, emergence and establishment, although more rain was needed
• Tropical
  Storm Gaston poses only a threat to the Azores and no key landmass in the Atlantic
• Hurricane
  Fiona will pass immediately to the west of Bermuda tonight and then race into eastern Canada through the Gulf of St. Lawrence during the Weekend and early part of next week
  
• U.S.
  weather through next week is expected to be favorably mixed for late season summer crop filling, maturation and harvest progress
• Cool
  conditions will occur into Saturday and then strong warming next week
• Frost
  will occur in the upper Midwest tonight into Friday morning and in southeastern Canada Saturday
• Drought
  will prevail in central and southwestern Canada’s Prairies
• Brazil’s
  center west and center south crop areas are still poised to receive significant rain in the next ten days
• Enough
  rain should fall to support early season soybean planting, continued early season corn planting and development
• The
  moisture will also be good for future rice and cotton planting
• Argentina’s
  rainfall in the coming week to ten days is expected to be erratic and a light with a need for greater moisture
• Europe
  rain will continue improving with rising soil moisture for many areas
• France
  and the U.K. will be last to get rain, but they are expected to eventually benefit
• Russia
  and Ukraine weather will continue to improve for planting, emerging and establishing winter crops
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin will continue to see very little rainfall through the next ten days
• Central
  and eastern India will receive widespread rain in the next ten days while the northwest and neighboring areas of Pakistan are dry
• Eastern
  Australia is expected to stay wet with rain today and again early to mid-week next week
• Western
  Australia will see restricted rainfall, but some timely rain will continue
• Eastern
  and southern South Africa will receive additional rain periodically in the coming week maintaining a good outlook for winter crops

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Sept. 22:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 2
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• Future
  Food Tech Conference, London, Sept. 22-23

Friday,
Sept. 23:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil,
  international edible oil conference, Agra, India, day 3
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar production data (tentative)
• US
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

USDA
export sales were poor all around. 134,300 tons of soybeans were sold to China. For corn, only 6,200 tons of net sales were for China.

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Sep 17: 213K (est 217K; prev 213K)

US
Continuing Claims Sep 10: 1379K (est 1417K; prev 1403K)

US
Current Account Balance Q2: $-251.1B (est $-260.0B; prevR $-282.5B)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn ended the electronic session slightly higher. Gains were limited on economic concerns and lower wheat. WTI crude oil was up $1.60 as of 7:50 am CT and USD near unchanged. USDA export sales were poor.

·        
IGC lowered their 2022-23 global corn production by 11 million tons to 1,168 million tons.

·        
The weekly USDA Broiler Report showed eggs in the US up 4 percent and chicks placed up 6 percent from a year ago.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through September 17, 2022, for the United States were
6.98 billion. Cumulative placements were up 1 percent from the same period a year earlier.

·        
Due to the potential rail strike, many industrial companies that depend on rail slowed operations, including ethanol plants.  EIA reported US ethanol production fell barrels per day to 901,000 barrels, lowest level since February
26, 2021. Stocks fell 342,000 barrels to 22.501 million, lowest since late December 2021.

·        
*Our 2021-22 US corn September 1 stocks estimate is
1.544 billion bushels (not 5.553), above USDA’s current 1.525 billion. For 2022-23, we lowered production to 13.750 billion (USDA @  13.944), and trimmed exports by 50 million bushels to 2.250 billion (USDA @ 2.275).  Our working 2022-23 US corn ending
stocks is 1.079 billion bushels, below 1.219 billion USDA September. China plans to release 14,400 tons of pork from state reserves on September 23. For the entire month, China was thought to release a combined 200,000 tons of pork, according to AgriCensus.

*revised

·        
China plans to release 14,400 tons of pork from state reserves on September 23. For the entire month, China was thought to release a combined 200,000 tons of pork, according to AgriCensus.

 

Export
developments.

·        
USDA reported private exporters reported the following sales activity:

-105,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-101,600
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

 

Soybeans

·        
The soybean complex is higher but poor USDA export sales and US economic uncertainty is capping gains. US export developments have been slow this week, at least for the US.

·        
MPOB look for Malaysian palm oil stocks to rise to a 3-1/2 year high by the end of 2022. Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at the end of August climbed to their highest in 33 months. 2022 Malaysian palm oil production was estimated at
18.5 million tons, above 18.1 million for 2021. Meanwhile, Indonesia stocks are expected to tighten by the end of this year from robust exports.

·        
Malaysian December palm oil futures decreased 61 points to 3826 and cash was down $12.50/ton to $922.50/ton.

·        
China futures for soybeans were up 0.6%, meal up 1.7%, SBO 0.9% higher and palm up 2.1%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 10 euros lower from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was lower by 1-3 euros.

·        
Offshore values were leading soybean oil 45 points higher earlier this morning and meal $1.30 short ton higher.

·        
We estimate US September 1 soybean stocks at 243 million bushels, 3 million above USDA.

·        
Brazil’s weather forecast improves this week with scattered rainfall expected across most of the growing areas.
Argentina
rainfall will be light over the next ten days to two weeks.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is seeing a slight correction after rallying over the past two days. Traders will be monitoring Black Sea developments. The wheat crop in Argentina is struggling from drought and may limit losses for CBOT wheat. 

·        
IGC raised their 2022-23 global wheat production by 14 million tons to 792 million.

·        
SovEcon sees a record 100 million ton Russia wheat crop.

·        
Safras & Mercado raised their 2022 Brazil wheat production estimate to 10.935 million tons from 10.5 million previous.  The 10.9 million tons is a record.

·        
The Rosario grains exchange lowered their estimate of the Argentina wheat crop to 16.5 million tons from 17.7 million tons previously.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 2.25 euros earlier at 344.75 per ton, near a multi month high.

·        
Option trading yesterday for Paris wheat was well above average with more than 27,100 lots exchanging hands.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
The Philippines seek 45,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat on September 22 for Dec-Feb shipment.

·        
Pakistan seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on September 26 for October shipment.

·        
Jordan opened a new import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close Sep 27 for March and April shipment. 

·        
Jordan is back in for barley on September 28.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  09/15/2022

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	11.5	1,056.5	1,572.5	189.5	1,935.4	2,537.5	1.7	1.7
SRW	-40.4	490.7	749.9	166.1	1,367.1	945.7	0.0	30.0
HRS	127.4	1,227.4	980.9	57.1	1,822.3	1,945.1	0.0	0.0
WHITE	64.0	1,009.8	575.5	265.5	1,347.7	1,350.7	0.0	0.0
DURUM	21.0	115.0	65.5	0.0	34.1	61.4	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	183.5	3,899.4	3,944.3	678.2	6,506.7	6,840.3	1.7	31.7
BARLEY	0.0	11.6	20.5	0.0	3.9	4.7	0.0	0.0
CORN	182.3	11,457.0	24,100.0	563.0	1,026.7	845.7	0.0	90.5
SORGHUM	0.0	227.3	2,269.4	6.3	12.3	3.1	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	446.4	24,782.3	22,659.7	522.5	945.0	532.7	0.0	30.0
SOY MEAL	-22.6	761.9	1,090.6	223.4	11,252.6	11,190.3	208.5	2,026.1
SOY OIL	-0.4	29.0	17.0	13.5	673.9	674.6	3.0	5.8
RICE
L G RGH	16.2	76.7	175.8	0.9	43.0	173.2	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	15.0	8.0	0.5	1.5	1.2	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	1.5	2.9	4.7	0.2	2.0	12.8	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	6.3	42.4	0.1	1.1	13.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	14.6	139.3	178.8	13.7	80.8	87.2	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	-2.1	36.5	30.3	4.4	48.1	60.6	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	30.2	276.7	440.0	19.8	176.6	349.0	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	32.4	6,351.2	5,300.8	232.3	1,638.0	1,351.6	13.3	953.7
PIMA	0.3	89.5	155.3	0.4	13.1	42.9	0.0	0.0

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period September 9 – 15, 2022.

Wheat:
Net sales of 183,500 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Indonesia (136,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (134,300 MT, including 130,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), Colombia
(55,900 MT, including 42,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (43,800 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Taiwan (35,100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (255,000 MT).  Total net sales
of 1,700 MT for 2023/2024 were for Mexico.  Exports of 678,200 MT were primarily to China (133,900 MT), Japan (90,900 MT), Indonesia (66,000 MT), Thailand (58,700 MT), and Nigeria (51,700 MT).

Corn: 
Net sales of 182,300 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Japan (82,300 MT, including 80,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Egypt (65,000 MT), Colombia (60,000 MT), Venezuela (13,200 MT), and Mexico (8,700 MT, including decreases
of 220,300 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (66,300 MT).  Exports of 563,000 MT were primarily to Mexico (259,000 MT), China (142,300 MT), Japan (137,000 MT), Venezuela (13,200 MT), and Jamaica (7,200 MT).   

Barley: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week. 

Sorghum: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 6,300 MT were to Mexico.

Rice:
 Net
sales of 30,200 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Honduras (15,500 MT), Saudi Arabia (8,800 MT), Mexico (5,500 MT), Canada (3,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and El Salvador (700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), were offset by reductions primarily
for Jordan (4,000 MT).  Exports of 19,800 MT were primarily to Saudi Arabia (8,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT), Canada (2,300 MT), and Mexico (1,800 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 446,400 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Egypt (174,000 MT, including decreases of 9,000 MT), China (152,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 138,200 MT), Mexico (70,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT),
Indonesia (66,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), and South Korea (54,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (184,700
MT) and Colombia (200 MT).  Exports of 522,500 MT were primarily to China (147,800 MT), Mexico (138,400 MT), Japan (100,000 MT), Indonesia (62,700 MT), and South Korea (52,000 MT). 

Optional
Origin:
For 2022/2023, the current optional origin outstanding balance is 300 MT, all South Korea.

Export
for Own Account:
For 2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 6,300 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales reductions of 22,600 MT for 2021/2022 resulting in increases primarily for Ecuador (30,100 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,900 MT), Mexico (21,000 MT, including decreases of 2,600 MT), the Philippines
(8,300 MT), Canada (4,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Nicaragua (1,500 MT), were more than offset by reductions primarily for Guatemala (51,100 MT), unknown destinations (34,900 MT), Colombia (3,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,000 MT), and Japan
(900 MT).  Net sales of 208,500 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Colombia (99,900 MT), the Philippines (65,000 MT), Guatemala (51,100 MT), Mexico (28,300 MT), and Costa Rica (16,600 MT), were offset by reductions for Spain (75,000 MT).  Exports of 223,400 MT
were primarily to the Philippines (95,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (31,000 MT), Mexico (30,600 MT), Ecuador (30,100 MT), and Canada (24,700 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of reductions of 400 MT for 2021/2022 resulting in increases for Mexico (100 MT), were more than offset by reductions for Canada (500 MT).  Total net sales of 3,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for Canada.  Exports of 13,500 MT were to Guatemala (12,000
MT), Honduras (800 MT), Canada (600 MT), and Mexico (100 MT).

Cotton: 
Net
sales of 32,400 RB for 2022/2023 primarily for Pakistan (27,800 RB, including 4,700 RB switched from China), El Salvador (8,600 RB), Guatemala (6,000 RB), Vietnam (2,000 RB, including 900 RB switched from South Korea), and Thailand (1,400 RB), were offset
by reductions primarily for China (11,400 RB), Japan (1,100 RB), and South Korea (900 RB).  Net sales of 13,300 RB for 2023/2024 were for Pakistan (8,800 RB) and Guatemala (4,500 RB).  Exports of 232,300 RB were primarily to China (73,000 RB), Vietnam (33,200
RB), Mexico (27,100 RB), Turkey (24,400 RB), and Bangladesh (18,300 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 300 RB were for China (200 RB) and Japan (100 RB).  Exports of 400 RB were to Pakistan (200 RB), China (100 RB), and Honduras (100 RB).  

Optional
Origin Sales:
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 10,300 RB is for Malaysia (9,300 RB) and Pakistan (1,000 RB).

Export
for Own Account:
Exports for own account totaling 800 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 77,400 RB is for China (40,500 RB), Vietnam (23,900 RB), Turkey (10,600 RB), India (1,500 RB), Pakistan (500
RB), and Indonesia (400 RB). 

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 479,700 pieces for 2022 primarily for China (288,900 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 10,900 pieces), Mexico (77,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,000 pieces), Thailand (34,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of
800 pieces), South Korea (33,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), and Indonesia (25,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), were offset by reductions for Spain (200 pieces).  Total net sales reductions of 3,500 calf
skins were for Italy, including decreases of 5,600 calf skins.  In addition, net sales of 3,900 kip skins were primarily for Belgium (2,900 kip skins).  Exports of 418,600 whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (312,300 pieces), Mexico (32,600
pieces), South Korea (26,100 pieces), Thailand (12,200 pieces), and Brazil (8,400 pieces). 

Net
sales of 143,600 wet blues for 2022 primarily for China (58,300 unsplit), Thailand (39,700 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), and Vietnam (34,900 unsplit, including decreases of 33,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Italy (100 unsplit). 
Exports of 162,900 wet blues were primarily to Vietnam (47,200 unsplit), Italy (42,500 unsplit), China (40,000 unsplit), and Thailand (26,700 unsplit). Net sales of 585,600 splits were reported for Vietnam (334,200 pounds), China (246,000 pounds), and South
Korea (5,400 pounds).  Exports of 79,700 pounds were to Vietnam.

Beef: 
Net sales of 15,200 MT for 2022 were primarily for China (6,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Canada (800 MT). 
Net sales of 300 MT for 2023 were for Japan.  Exports of 18,600 MT were primarily to South Korea (4,600 MT), China (4,300 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 29,000 MT for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (15,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Canada (2,300 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (2,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and South
Korea (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 26,500 MT were primarily to Mexico (12,500 MT), Japan (3,200 MT), China (3,100 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).

September
22, 2022                                                       1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA