FI Morning Grain Comments 09/24/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Lower
trade in ags as the USD is up 29, crude oil down 31 cents (8:13 am CT), and US equities lower.  We look for a good advancement of US harvest progress over the past week into this coming week.  Talk of Brail’s Mato Grosso and surrounding areas seeing slightly
more than expected rain Thursday into Friday may ease some concerns prior to planting progress. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 24, 2021

• Dry
  conditions occurred in many areas around the world Thursday
• Locally
  heavy rain in northern India could have harmed a little cotton in Punjab.
• China
  is getting ready for another bout of significant rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin.
  
• In
  the U.S. wheat areas in the Plains will experience a good bout of rain during the middle part of next week with some rain continuing into the following weekend.
  
• Improved
  planting, germination and emergence conditions will result.
• Russia’s
  wheat areas in the Volga Basin received some rain Thursday and more will occur into early next week to improve its wheat crop emergence and establishment.
  
• The
  U.S. and Russia wheat weather will weigh in on market mentality today with some bearishness expected.
  
• Argentina
  will see increasing rainfall during the middle to latter part of next week and that too will benefit its wheat crop and spring planting potentials.
  
• Showers
  in Brazil’s center west and center south will be slow to evolve during the next two weeks, but a boost is expected that will gradually improve soybean planting potentials in center west and some center south crop areas.
  
• Planting
  is already moving along in a few areas with Parana 3% done with soybean planting and Mato Grosso just beginning
• Hurricane
  Sam will become a major hurricane in the next several days while staying over open water, but it will threaten Bermuda during mid-week next week and could move closer to southeastern Canada a week from now
• Eastern
  U.S. Midwest, Delta and Southeastern States will experience a full week and maybe 10 days of dry weather which will be great for summer crop maturation and harvesting especially after recent rainy weather
• Tropical
  Storm Mindulle will be closely monitored for possible influence on Japan late next week, but it may turn off to the northeast before getting there
• Europe
  weather will be favorably mixed for a while
• Eastern
  Australia is still expecting rain in the second week of the outlook favoring better wheat, barley and canola conditions in New South Wales and improved spring planting potential in Queensland
• Canada’s
  Prairies harvest weather will remain good
• Southeastern
  Canada rainfall recently has stalled farming activity and drier weather will evolve slowly over the next ten days

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Sept. 24:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 2
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, 3pm

Saturday,
Sept. 25:

• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 3

Monday,
Sept. 27:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Sept. 28:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Sept. 29:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases Sept. trade data
• Brazil’s
  Unica releases sugar output and cane crush data (tentative)

Thursday,
Sept. 30:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  quarterly stocks – corn, soy, wheat, barley, oat and sorghum, noon
• U.S.
  wheat production, noon
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• Ivory
  Coast farmgate cocoa prices to be announced
• Malaysia
  September palm oil exports
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Canada

Friday,
Oct. 1:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• New
  cocoa season in Ivory Coast starts
• U.S.
  DDGS production, corn for ethanol
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• Australia
  commodity index
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Hong Kong

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is lower on slow news and higher USD.  China liquidity crises is in focus. 

·        
China sold 10,507 tons of GMO corn or 9 percent what they offered at auction.  “GMO” sales are considered Ukraine import reserves. 

·        
China will see rain across its northern growing areas further delaying corn harvest progress. We think the disruption is temporary and will not impact overall production. 

·        
France is off to a slow start in gather its corn crop with only 1 percent complete versus 15 percent year ago.  Crop maturity and drying are running about 10 days below average. 

·        
Argentina corn plantings are off to a good start. 

 

 

 

Export
developments.

• South
  Korea’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of corn at an estimated $329.90 a ton c&f plus a $1.75 a ton for shipment in December.  They earlier rejected offers on 138,000 tons of corn. 
  
• Taiwan’s
  MFIG seeks 65,000 tons of corn September 28 for shipment between Dec. 6 and Dec. 25, 2021, or later if from the PNW. 
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are lower ahead of the weekend from a higher USD and lower energy prices. 

·        
Rapeseed futures traded at all-time high, but slightly lower from the 619.25 high, now up 2.00 euros at 617. 

·        
China power outages spreading to local crushing facilities are gaining the trades attention to monitor soybean product (meal and oil) prices, although China meal futures settled lower overnight. 

·        
Meanwhile, offshore values are leading CBOT soybean oil 50 points lower (127 higher for the week to date) and meal $1.20/short ton lower ($7.70 lower for the week to date). 

·        
We look for a good advancement of US harvest progress over the past week into this coming week. 

·        
For US shipments when updated Monday, we look for USDA inspections to be below their respected 5-year average. 

·        
Talk of Brail’s Mato Grosso and surrounding areas seeing slightly more than expected rain Thursday into Friday may ease some concerns prior to planting progress.  Brazil producers want to avoid planting twice in the event of an
early disruption for their crop as input costs such as fertilizer are extremely high this year.

·        
Malaysian palm futures decreased 6 ringgit to 4441 and cash was up $5.00/ton to 1,157.50. 

·        
China palm futures were up 2.0%.  China soybeans were up 0.8%, meal down 0.5%, and soybean oil climbed 1.6%. 

·        
Pakistan 2021 oilseed imports are projected at 3.53 million tons, a record, and up 20% from 2020, according to comments made by the chairman of Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association told the Globoil India conference.

·        
China

·        
China cash crush margins improved to 159 cents/bu on our analysis from 143 previous versus 162 cents late last week and 92 cents around a year ago. 

·        
Malaysia:

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures are giving up some gains made yesterday from a reversal in the USD. 

·        
Paris wheat is trading off a 5-week high, with December down 0.50 at 251.50 euros. 

·        
The USD was 29 points higher as of 8:13 am CT.

·        
Ukraine is about 18 percent complete on winter grain plantings of the expected 6.7 million hectares.  Summer grain harvest is near 66 percent complete. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Japan bought 113,067 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada, this week for October 21-November 20 loading.  Original tender details…

·        
Pakistan seeks 640,000 tons of wheat on Sep. 29
for
shipment between January and February 2022. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on September 29. 

·        
Results awaited: Mauritius seeks 47,000 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on Sept. 21 for various 2022 shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Lowest offer $428.94/ton CIF.  Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on September 23. 

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on October 4.