FI Morning Grain Comments 10/07/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Grains
and soybean complex are higher.  Talk of inflation was noted.  Energies are lower and USD was weaker.  Oats made a new lifetime high overnight.  USDA export sales were good for most of the major commodities.  Wheat sales slowed from the previous week. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 7, 2021

• Today’s
  morning model runs reduced rain in Canada’s Prairies for the middle part of next week while increasing it in portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota. 
  
• The
  morning GFS model run also added rain to Cordoba and Santa Fe, Argentina for mid-week next week, but that increase was likely overdone.
  
• Greater
  than expected rain fell across Sul de Minas, Brazil coffee production areas overnight and the latest supplemental rainfall map for the entire nation is attached
• Brazil’s
  outlook remains favorably moist in many areas, but perhaps a little too much rain will impact areas from southeastern Paraguay through southern Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana to parts of Sao Paulo during the next couple of weeks.
  
• Planting
  moisture is already abundant and rain may fall a little too frequently to support the best field progress.
  
• Center
  west Brazil rainfall will increase in week two of the two-week outlook.
• Eastern
  Australia is advertised a little wetter today in the coming ten days to two weeks with two waves of rain coming to improve spring planting prospects, but to slow winter crop harvesting in Queensland.
  
• Russia
  will be dry and mild to cool through the weekend and may get some moisture next week.
  
• Europe’s
  wettest bias in Italy will shift to the Balkan Countries over the next couple of days before dissipating. 
• Tropical
  Depression 22W formed in the South China Sea Wednesday and was expected to become a tropical storm today and impact Hainan, China Friday before possibly impacting either southern China or Vietnam during the weekend
• Another
  tropical cyclone will evolve in the eastern Philippines Sea over the next couple of days before moving toward Taiwan and China this weekend into early next week
• Northern
  India is expected to remain dry while rain falls in the south and east

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Oct. 7:

• FAO
  Food Price Index & cereals supply/demand brief
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  China

Friday,
Oct. 8:

• Labor
  Department’s September jobs report
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans, and other commodities
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday

• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm

Tuesday

• USDA
  S&D’s, Crop production

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Conab
Brazil estimates: Note old crop was upward revised from September

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is
higher on talk of increasing US domestic demand.  Inflation jitters was noted.  Energies are lower and USD was down 6 points.  Oats made a new lifetime high overnight.  For the corn market, many ethanol plants are coming back online from maintenance.  Yesterday’s
US ethanol production number was supportive for corn. 

·        
The US WCB could see heavy rains next week delaying harvesting. 

·        
Weekly US ethanol production was up a large 64,000 barrels or 7% (trade was looking for up 10,000) from the previous week to 978,000 barrels per day, highest since early August.  Stocks were down 289,000 barrels (trade was looking
for up 26,000) to 19.931 million barrels.  Stocks are at their lowest level since May 28, 2021. 

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  seeks 325,000 tons of feed corn on October 14 for November 14 through December 6 shipment. 
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Higher trade in the soybean complex.  Soybean oil is higher despite a lower trade in US energy prices. The Midwest will see rain on and off through the end of the week, favoring late summer crop development. 

·        
Brazil will see rain during the balance of the week and Argentina will remain mostly dry. 

·        
Malaysian palm futures snapped a 3-day winning streak by settling 23 MYR lower at 4,843 and cash was down $10.00/ton to $1,237.50/ton.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 12 points lower and meal $4.00/short tons higher.  

·        
November Paris rapeseed futures eased from a  contract high and is up 3.25 at 674.50 euros. 

·        
European cash vegetable oils were down about 30-35 euros from this time yesterday morning and meal unchanged to higher. 

·        
China is back from holiday on Friday.

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is higher on Russian winter wheat planting concerns, good demand and slightly lower USD.  Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of wheat and Taiwan picked up US wheat.  The US Great Plains will be mostly dry through Sunday then rain
develops across OK, KS, and northern TX on Monday. 

·        
World food prices (FAO) averaged 130.0 points for September, up about 32 percent from a year earlier and highest since September 2011, up from 128.5 for August.

·        
December Paris wheat was 0.75 euro higher at 269 euros a ton.

 

FOA
Index (tables/charts attached)

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of durum wheat at $677.29 and $680.67/ton for November 1-December 20 shipment. 

·        
Taiwan bought 48,000 tons of milling wheat from the United States for shipment from the PNW between Nov. 25 and Dec. 9. It included 27,170 tons of U.S. dark northern spring wheat with 14.5% protein content at $404.47 a ton, 14,460
tons hard red winter wheat with 12.5% protein at $367.83 a ton FOB, and 6,370 tons of soft white wheat with 11% protein at $393.15 a ton FOB.

·        
Jordan saw three offers for 120,000 tons of barley .

·        
Jordan issued a new import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close October 13. 

·        
Yesterday Egypt bought 240,000 tons of wheat (180,000 ton of Russian wheat and 60,000 tons of Ukrainian). 

·        
The UN seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat on October 8 for Ethiopia for delivery 90 days after contract signing.

·        
Turkey seeks 310,000 tons of feed barley, on Oct. 8.  

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on October 13 for arrival by February 24.

·        
Japan seeks 130,963 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia for December loading. 

·        
Pakistan seeks 90,000 tons of optional origin wheat on October 13.  They already bought 550k and 575k since September 23. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on October 26 for January 1-March 31 shipment. 

 

 

USDA export Sales 

USDA export sales for soybeans of 1.042 million tons were within expectations.  China booked 671,300 tons but included 131,000 tons switched from unknown.  Soybean meal sales were above an average trade estimate at 369,600 tons and soybean
oil was a large 38,500 tons, supportive for SBO futures.  Corn export sales were well above expectations at 1.265 million tons and this should be friendly for futures.  Mexico booked 801,400 tons.  All-wheat sales slowed to 333,200 tons but were within expectations. 

 

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  09/30/21

FAX 202-690-3275

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
WHEAT	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
HRW	97.8	1,517.9	1,512.5	147.7	2,839.2	3,874.7	0.0	0.0
SRW	50.3	672.1	314.3	44.9	1,093.3	849.5	0.0	0.0
HRS	107.1	851.9	1,667.4	243.7	2,232.7	2,602.7	0.0	0.0
WHITE	78.0	552.8	1,315.8	107.1	1,526.1	1,842.2	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.0	60.5	220.3	0.0	61.4	321.6	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	333.2	3,655.3	5,030.1	543.4	7,752.7	9,490.7	0.0	0.0
BARLEY	0.0	24.5	33.3	1.0	5.7	8.7	0.0	0.0
CORN	1,265.1	24,084.6	22,170.0	974.6	2,496.6	3,677.8	0.0	333.3
SORGHUM	2.4	2,190.2	2,542.4	47.9	163.5	392.7	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	1,041.9	23,326.5	33,970.0	940.2	2,001.7	6,577.4	0.0	19.8
SOY MEAL	369.6	3,689.0	3,436.8	0.0	0.0	30.2	-1.4	29.9
SOY OIL	38.5	85.2	176.7	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
RICE
L G RGH	66.2	199.0	567.2	52.7	227.8	55.0	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	7.7	26.5	0.3	1.5	2.4	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.4	3.7	13.3	1.1	14.5	6.2	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	54.3	24.1	0.1	14.0	25.3	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	3.2	137.7	61.6	5.2	138.7	64.1	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	3.5	69.6	96.6	2.3	69.0	67.2	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	73.4	471.9	789.3	61.7	465.5	220.2	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	246.7	5,829.9	5,822.0	125.1	1,640.6	2,312.4	55.0	741.8
PIMA	13.7	170.4	227.2	3.7	58.4	103.1	0.0	0.0

 

FINAL 2020/21 MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	CARRYOVER SALES 1/	09/30/21 EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS
SOY MEAL	-21.7	791.3	188.3	11,534.7
SOY OIL	-5.4	16.7	0.4	675.6

 

 

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period September 24-30, 2021.

 

Wheat:  Net sales of 333,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 15 percent from
the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (89,100 MT, including decreases of 9,400 MT), South Korea (82,700 MT), the Philippines (69,300 MT, including decreases of 5,400 MT), Indonesia (59,000 MT),
and Nigeria (32,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (42,200 MT), Brazil (19,500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (16,700 MT).  Exports of 543,400 MT were up 47 percent
from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (242,300 MT), Peru (67,500 MT), South Korea (55,000 MT), Guatemala (36,000 MT), and Japan (35,600 MT).  

Corn:  Net sales of 1,265,100 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for Mexico (801,400 MT, including
decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (192,500 MT, including 100,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 32,800 MT), Honduras (96,800 MT, including decreases of 10,300 MT), Canada (94,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Guatemala (60,000
MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (149,500 MT).  Exports of 974,600 MT were primarily to Mexico (349,100 MT), China (212,300 MT), Japan (193,100 MT), Colombia (125,800 MT), and Venezuela (24,800 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 170,000 MT
is for unknown destinations. 

Barley:  No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,000 MT for 2021/2022
were for Japan (800 MT) and Taiwan (200 MT). 

Sorghum:  Total net sales of 2,400 MT for 2021/2022 were reported for Mexico, including
decreases of 600 MT.  Exports of 47,900 MT were to Mexico (45,500 MT) and China (2,400 MT).  

Rice:  Net sales of 73,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 2 percent from the previous week,
but up 73 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (38,200 MT), Honduras (16,100 MT), Nicaragua (12,000 MT), Guatemala (3,000 MT), and Canada (2,300 MT).  Exports of 61,700 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and
32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (53,800 MT), Canada (3,800 MT), Jordan (2,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (900 MT), and Costa Rica (500 MT).   

Soybeans:  Net sales of 1,041,900 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for China (671,300 MT,
including 131,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (128,400 MT, including 110,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Germany (86,300 MT), Taiwan (84,000 MT), and Spain (72,400 MT, including 64,000 MT switched from
the Netherlands), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (246,000 MT) and Peru (7,000 MT).  Exports of 940,200 MT were primarily to China (276,800 MT), Indonesia (119,100 MT), the Netherlands (91,300 MT), Germany (86,300 MT), and Mexico (79,200
MT). 

Export for Own Account: For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada. 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began October
1, totaled 369,600 MT primarily for the United Kingdom (60,000 MT), Colombia (55,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), the Philippines (54,300 MT), Honduras (43,700 MT), and Canada (30,900 MT), were offset by reductions for Venezuela (4,500 MT) and Guatemala
(1,500 MT).  A net sales reduction of 21,700 MT was carried over from the 2020/2021 marketing year, which ended September 30. Exports for the period ending September 30 of 188,300 MT brought accumulated exports to 11,534,700 MT, down 2 percent from the prior
year’s total of 11,818,300 MT.  The primary destinations were to the Philippines (46,300 MT, including 200 MT – late), Ecuador (32,400 MT), Canada (28,500 MT), Mexico (27,900 MT), and Venezuela (26,900 MT).  

Late Reporting: For
2020/2021, exports totaling 200 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported late for the Philippines.   

Soybean Oil:  Net sales for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began October 1, totaled
38,500 MT primarily for Morocco (19,000 MT), South Korea (10,000 MT), Canada (3,400 MT), Guatemala (2,500 MT, including decreases of 8,900 MT), and Cameroon (2,500 MT), were offset by reduction for Mexico (100 MT).  A total net sales reduction of 5,400 MT
was carried over from the 2020/2021 marketing year, which ended September 30.  No exports for the period ending September 30. Exports for the period ending October 1 of 400 MT brought accumulated exports to 675,600 MT, down 45 percent from the prior year’s
total of 1,234,600 MT, with Canada being the destination. 

Cotton:  Net sales of 246,700 RB for 2021/2022 were down 57 percent from the previous
week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (174,500 RB, including decreases of 11,000 RB), Guatemala (33,000 RB), Turkey (18,200 RB), Vietnam (14,200 RB, including 100 RB switched from Japan), and Indonesia (11,400 RB,
including 1,200 switched from Vietnam), were offset by reductions for India (20,700 RB) and Pakistan (2,200 RB).  Net sales for 2022/2023 of 55,000 RB were primarily for China (40,000 RB).  Exports of 125,100 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 24 percent
from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (30,800 RB), Mexico (16,700 RB), Bangladesh (12,600 RB), Vietnam (11,200 RB), and Turkey (11,100 RB).   Net sales of Pima totaling 13,700 RB were
down 19 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (8,300 RB) and Peru (4,700 RB).  Exports of 3,700 RB were down 68 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The
destinations were primarily to China (2,200 RB), India (900 RB), Thailand (400 RB), and Guatemala (200 RB). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB
is for Pakistan. 

Exports for Own Account:  For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance of 4,800 RB is for China (4,700 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB). 

Hides and Skins:  Net
sales of 568,800 pieces for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 71 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (310,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 116,900 pieces and 72,900
whole cattle hides – late), South Korea (102,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 3,000 pieces and 30,800 whole cattle hides – late), Thailand (38,100 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 6,300 pieces), Taiwan (34,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,300 pieces), and Mexico (26,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 13,600 pieces and 11,000 whole cattle hides – late),
were offset by reductions for Italy (400 pieces).  Exports of 501,000 pieces were up noticeably from the previous week and up 51 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (261,600 pieces), South Korea (114,900
pieces), Thailand (34,500 pieces), Mexico (33,800 pieces), and Taiwan (18,700 pieces).  Total net sales of 16,700-kip skins, including decreases of 100 pieces, were reported for Belgium.  Exports of 5,500 pieces were to Belgium. 

Net sales of 166,500 wet blues for 2021 were up 28 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (98,700 unsplit, including decreases of 1,100 unsplit and 16,200 unsplit – late), China (47,000 unsplit and 8,600
unsplit – late), Thailand (10,200 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), Vietnam (5,100 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), and the Dominican Republic (3,200 unsplit), were offset by reductions for India
(100 unsplit).  Net sales of 400 unsplit resulting in increases for China (6,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Italy (5,600 unsplit).  Exports of 131,900 wet blues were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (41,200 unsplit and 6,100 grain splits), China (28,800 unsplit), Vietnam (24,900 unsplit), Mexico (5,000 grain splits and 3,700 unsplit), and Thailand (7,500 unsplit).  Total net sales of 3,900 splits, including
decreases of 1,000 pounds, were reported for China.  Exports of 325,300 pounds were to Vietnam (200,000 pounds) and China (125,300 pounds).  

Late Reporting: For
2021, net sales totaling 139,500 pieces were reported late for China (72,900 whole cattle hides), South Korea (30,800 whole cattle hides), and Mexico (11,000 whole cattle hides).  Exports totaling 7,800 pieces were to China (4,200 pieces), South Korea (2,800
pieces), and Mexico (800 pieces). Net sales totaling 24,800 wet blues were for Italy (16,200 unsplit) and China (8,600 unsplit).  Exports totaling 1,600 wet blues were for Italy. 

Beef:  Net
sales of 15,600 MT reported for 2021 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (6,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South
Korea (2,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Chile (100 MT), Colombia (100 MT), and Italy (100 MT).  Net sales for 2022 of 500 MT were for Japan (400
MT) and Mexico (100 MT).  Exports of 15,700 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), China (2,700 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and
Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Pork:  Net sales of 22,100 MT reported for 2021
were down 48 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (16,000 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Canada (1,200 MT, including decreases
of 1,100 MT), South Korea (1,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Japan (700 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 529,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (172,000 MT),
unknown destinations (150,000 MT), Colombia (129,100 MT), and Japan (50,000 MT).  Exports of 29,000 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico
(14,600 MT), China (4,200 MT), Japan (3,200 MT), Canada (1,600 MT), and South Korea (1,500 MT).   

October 7, 2021                                              1                   FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA 

                       SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS                       
Reported Under the Daily Reporting System
For Period Ending September 30, 2021

                  Commodity                                   Destination                     Quantity (MT)           Marketing   

                

                  CORN                                          MEXICO                         576,800 MT 1/          2021/2022

                  SOYBEANS                                CHINA                            198,000 MT 1/           2021/2022

 

                 1/ Export Sales.