FI Morning Grain Comments 10/11/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Many
US government agencies are closed for holiday therefore USDA export inspections and crop progress will be released on Thursday.  Argentina is on holiday. 

 

Mostly
higher trade in CBOT agriculture markets this morning after a two-sided overnight trade.  Traders are eyeing outside markets with energy prices again sharply higher

The
USD is 17 points higher and WTI up about $1.50.  US equities are pointing towards a lower open. 

 

 

 

Weather

Last
7 days

 

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 11, 2021

• More
  rain will fall this week in the northern U.S. Plains, upper Midwest and across a larger part of eastern Canada’s Prairies after some rain impacted these areas during the weekend. 
  
• Waves
  of rain are also expected in from the southern U.S. Plains across the heart of the Midwest this week due to a frontal system and tropical moisture streaming northeast from Tropical Storm Pamela which is expected to move inland Sinaloa, Mexico  Wednesday after
  becoming a hurricane Tuesday.
• Another
  Tropical Storm, named Kompasu will produce torrential rainfall in western and northern Luzon Island, Philippines, eastern Taiwan, Hainan, China and northern Vietnam over the balance of this week.
  
• Some
  damage to rice and sugarcane may accompany the storm as it impacts Southeast Asia.
  
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will experience a drier biased week of weather this week along with West Texas, central Montana, the central Canadian Prairies and parts of the Pacific Northwest. 
  
• Argentina
  will get rain this week in many areas, but serious drought relief in the west-central and northwest is not likely.
  
• Brazil’s
  crop areas will all get rain over the next two weeks and that will be ideal for coffee and citrus flowering, sugarcane development and the planting of rice, cotton, corn and soybeans.
  
• India’s
  weather will be tranquil this week with rain mostly in the south and east
• Some
  rain is possible in northern Uttar Pradesh this weekend into early next week
  
• A
  low pressure center may form in the Bay of Bengal this week that may eventually enhance rainfall the upper east coast into Bangladesh
• The
   greatest rain is expected early next week
• Northern
  China will dry down for a while. 
• Welcome
  rain fell during the weekend in southeastern Europe and more may occur later this week. 
• Western
  Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States will not receive a large amount of rain this week, although a narrow band of rain will impact interior eastern Ukraine and areas north into interior western Russia
• Eastern
  and southern parts of Australia will receive some rain this week supporting many winter crops and some early summer crop planting

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Oct. 11:

• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data for September stockpiles, production and exports, 12:30pm Kuala Lumpur time
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-10 palm oil exports
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina, Canada

Tuesday,
Oct. 12:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, noon
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm
• AHDB
  grain market outlook conference
• French
  agriculture ministry’s crop production estimate
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Vietnam
  customs to release September commodity trade data
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Oct. 13:

• China’s
  first batch of September trade data, including imports of soybeans, meat and edible oils
• New
  Zealand food prices
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains report
• European
  cocoa grindings
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar output data (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Thursday,
Oct. 14:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• North
  America cocoa grindings
• Suedzucker
  half-year earnings
• Agrana
  half-year earnings
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong

Friday,
Oct. 15:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  monthly data on green coffee stockpiles
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commitment
of traders

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is
higher on higher outside commodity markets.  WTI crude oil hit multi-year highs.  US retail gasoline prices are up more than a $1.00/gallon from this time last year.  Chinese raw energy and product futures prices surged to multi-year and record highs on Monday. 

·        
US equities were pointing towards a lower open. 

·        
Many US government agencies are closed for holiday therefore USDA export inspections and crop progress will be released on Thursday. 

·        
Rain this week will fall across northern and eastern Plains and most of the Midwest, delaying harvest progress, particularly across North Dakota, eastern Iowa, and Missouri. 

·        
Oats made a fresh new lifetime high overnight. 

·        
Corn futures on the Euronext exchange rose for a 14th straight session. 

·        
China renewed a ban on UK beef imports over mad cow concerns. 

·        
China live hog futures traded up 8% limit to a one month high. 

·        
China sow inventories are getting tighter.  China bought 30,000 tons of pork for state reserves on October 10. 

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  seeks 325,000 tons of feed corn on October 14 for November 14 through December 6 shipment. 
  

 

Soybeans

·        
Traders are eyeing outside markets with energy prices again sharply higher. USD 18 points higher.  several commodities markets are near or at fresh multi month or multi year highs. 

·        
Soybeans are higher. Meal was mixed. Soybean oil is higher on tightening global vegetable oil supplies and sharply higher WTI crude oil.  WTI is at multi-year highs, up about $1.50 at the time this was written.

·        
Meanwhile China energy futures were up sharply on Monday in large part to a domestic shortage. 

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oil markets were called unchanged as many markets were unquoted earlier this morning.  Rotterdam meal was softer from Friday morning. 

·        
China’s soybean futures complex was mixed. 

·        
China cash crush margins were last 206 cents/bu on our analysis versus 187 cents late last week and 97 cents around a year ago. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 74 points higher and meal $4.90/short ton lower. 

·        
November Paris rapeseed futures fell hard by 11.75 to 655.75euros. 

·        
Malaysian palm oil hit a record on Friday but eased 11 ringgit on Monday and cash palm was up $10/ton to $1,272.50/ton.  Malaysian end of September palm oil stocks fell by a more than expected amount to 1.75 million tons after
hitting a 14-month peak at the end of August.  September production fell 0.4% to 1.7 million.  ITS reported October palm exports at 528,904 tons, down 7.6 percent from 5572,345 tons during the same period a month early.  AmSpec reported October palm exports
at 500,381 tons, down from 540,915 tons during the same period a month early. 

·        
Argentina’s markets are closed Monday for local holidays. 

·        
AgRural: Brazil soybean crop plantings reached 10% of the estimated area as of Oct. 7, up six percentage points from the previous week and compared to 3% in the same period of 2020/21.

·        
(Bloomberg) — India has imposed limits on inventories of edible oils and oilseeds to ease soaring prices in the world’s biggest buyer of soybean, palm and sunflower oils.

·        
China cash crush margins were last 206 cents/bu on our analysis versus 187 cents late last week and 97 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China saw very heavy rain across the provinces of Shanxi and Shaanxi, triggering emergency responses. 
More
than 17,000 houses collapsed and 190,000ha of farmland were damaged by the flooding, according to The Straight Times. 

·        
China

·        
Reuters on Friday in article noted Brazil’s Paranagua port exported 419,314 tons of soymeal last month, a 35% rise from August and almost 33% higher from September 2020.  This comes after Argentina shipping woes slowed exports. 
But official country statistics suggest all of Brazil exported 1.31 million tons of soybeans meal during September, down from 1.57 million tons a year earlier and 1.54 million tons during August 2021.  In comparison, Argentina shipped about 2.7 million tons
of soybean meal versus 2.36 million a year ago and 2.67 million tons during August 2020. 

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat is higher on strength in outside related markets.  News was light.  Don’t discount a two-sided trade in high protein wheat. 

·        
The upper Great Plains saw very welcome rain over the past day. 

·        
The US Great Plains will rain developing across the eastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday. The southern areas will see rain Thursday and Friday. 

·        
December Paris wheat was 1.50 euros higher at 270.50 euros a ton.

·        
 

·        
Russia exported 19.3 million tons of wheat during the Jan-Aug period, down from 19.7 million during the same period a year ago. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on October 14 for LH December through FH February delivery. 

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat for strategic reserves to last 5.5 months. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat set to close October 13. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on October 13 for arrival by February 24.

·        
Pakistan seeks 90,000 tons of optional origin wheat on October 13.  They already bought 550k and 575k since September 23. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Bloomberg) — U.S. 2021-22 cotton ending stocks seen at 3.44m bales, 264,000 bales below USDA’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates
  range from 3.16m to 3.75m bales
• Global
  ending stocks seen 181,000 bales lower at 86.5m bales

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on October 26 for January 1-March 31 shipment. 

·        
Sugar is at a 4-year high.