FI Morning Grain Comments 10/13/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.  Please
note I will be out the balance of the week, attending the AFOA conference in Nashville. 

 

USDA
FSA Acreage is delayed.  When updated, it will be posted here https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/efoia/electronic-reading-room/frequently-requested-information/crop-acreage-data/index

 

Soybean
oil is back on stage after a rally in palm futures. India lowered import duties on vegetable oils.  Soybeans are higher and meal lower. Corn is at a three-week low.  News in that market is light. Wheat is taking a pause. We are awaiting results on three wheat
import tenders.  Traders will be looking for Chinese import demand developments after September soybean imports fell sharply from a year earlier. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

7-day

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Oct. 13:

• China’s
  first batch of September trade data, including imports of soybeans, meat, and edible oils
• New
  Zealand food prices
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains report
• European
  cocoa grindings
• Brazil
  Unica cane crush, sugar output data (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Thursday,
Oct. 14:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, and beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• North
  America cocoa grindings
• Suedzucker
  half-year earnings
• Agrana
  half-year earnings
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong

Friday,
Oct. 15:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of trader’s report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of trader’s weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  monthly data on green coffee stockpiles
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
435,173                 versus   300000-650000  range

Corn                     
746,200                 versus   600000-1000000                range

Soybeans           
1,611,731             versus   650000-1200000                range

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is
at a three-week low on follow through selling from yesterday’s USDA report.   Some analysts are looking for a higher final US corn yield in January.  Note USDA will update their corn yield again in November. 

·        
The US western, central and parts of the eastern areas will see rain one time or another by the end of the week. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of October 07, 2021, were 746,200 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 870,085 tons previous week and compares to 846,596 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 395,188
tons, Colombia for 83,303 tons, and China for 69,300 tons.

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  seeks 325,000 tons of feed corn on October 14 for November 14 through December 6 shipment. 
  

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are higher following renewed strength in soybean oil and talk of Chinese demand.  Yesterday it was thought China bought around 8 US PNW soybean cargoes.  Soybean oil is sharply higher after India cut import duties on
vegetable oils.  Meal is lower on spreading.  China will need to increase soybean commitments to keep up with current demand. 

·        
China September soybean imports fell to 6.88 million tons from 9.79 million a year ago.  China January through September soybean imports were 73.97 million tons, down 0.7% from the same period a year ago. 

·        
India cut their duties on selected vegetable oil imports.

Crude
palm oil imports tax cut to 8.25% from 24.75%

Crude
soyoil, sunflower oil import taxes cut to 5.5% vs 24.75%

Refined
grades import tax 19.25% vs 35.75% earlier

·        
SEA: India’s vegetable oil imports in September jumped by 66% from a year ago to a record 1.76 million tons, including 397,386 tons of refined palm oil.

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 235 points higher and meal $0.20/short ton higher. 

·        
China cash crush margins were last 224 cents/bu (216 previous) on our analysis versus 187 cents late last week and 97 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of October 07, 2021, were 1,611,731 tons, above a range of trade expectations, above 844,610 tons previous week and compares to 2,469,405 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,167,997 tons, Taiwan for 90,042 tons, and Mexico for 65,719 tons.

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is trading lower, taking a pause after rallying yesterday from the results of the USDA report. 
December
Paris wheat was 3.00 euros lower at 268.50 euros a ton. Although world demand remains strong, recall yesterday
Egypt’s GASC cancelled their wheat import tender due to high prices offered. 

·        
France’s AgMin lowered soft wheat stocks to 2.4 million tons from 2.9 million, for the end of 2021-22.

·        
Iran is seen buying a record amount of wheat after they witnessed their worst drought in 50 years.  They may need to but 8 million tons this season (March-Feb) according to a source via Reuters and about 2 million tons had been
delivered.  

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of October 07, 2021, were 435,173 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 615,213 tons previous week and compares to 514,673 tons year ago. Major countries included Japan for 125,767
tons, Colombia for 71,181 tons, and China for 68,701 tons.

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Pakistan’s lowest offer for 90,000 tons of optional origin wheat was $388.83 a ton c&f. 

·        
Results awaited: Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat. 

·        
Results awaited: Japan’s
AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by February 24.

·        
Japan seeks 119,512 tons of food wheat on Thursday for arrival by January 31. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on October 14 for LH December through FH February delivery. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on October 26 for January 1-March 31 shipment.