FI Morning Grain Comments 10/14/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.  Please
note I will be out the balance of the week, attending the AFOA conference in Nashville. 

 

Higher
trade across the board on technical buying.  The USD is lower and WTI higher.  Outside markets were mixed. Paris rapeseed was up 8 euros or 1.24% and Paris wheat up 4.00 euros or 1.5%.  There was some commercial buying yesterday.  A Bloomberg poll looks for
weekly US ethanol production to be up 7,000 barrels (969-995 range) from the previous week and stocks down 97,000 barrels to 19.931 million.

 

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 14, 2021

• Argentina
  is back to a drier bias today after rain fell Wednesday.
• Brazil
  will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine through the weekend and then most of next week will be drier biased in southern parts of the nation.
  
• The
  next more active period of weather for southern Brazil will be after October 23.
  
• Brazil’s
  bottom line remains very good for coffee, citrus and sugarcane development and for the advancement of corn, soybean, rice, cotton and other crop planting.
  
• U.S.
  harvest weather will improve over the coming ten days with only brief periods of rain and more abundant periods of sunshine expected.
  
• The
  environment will be better for supporting harvest progress.
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will trend drier for a while, but recent rain has supported good planting and emergence conditions.
  
• Recent
  rain and snow in the northern Plains was a boon to winter wheat emergence and establishment in some areas, but Montana and central parts of Canada’s Prairies are still too dry. 
  
• Europe
  and northern Russia weather will trend more active in the next ten days while southern wheat areas in Russia and across Ukraine are dry biased for a while.
  
• Rain
  in Europe’s Balkan Countries will end this weekend after a significant turnaround in soil conditions. Northern China will be drier biased for a while improving harvest conditions
  
• Australia
  will see a good mix of weather supporting its reproducing winter crops. 
• One
  to two inches of rain fell across parts of North Dakota and southern Manitoba, Canada Wednesday and overnight
• Snowfall
  reached 27 inches in Black Hills of South Dakota Wednesday, 15 inches in southeastern Montana and 1 to 5 inches in far westernmost parts of North Dakota
• Wind
  speeds gusted to more than 50 mph in the northern U.S. Plains Wednesday in association with the rain and snow event
• Tropical
  Depression Kompasu was moving into northern Vietnam today and will produce some heavy rainfall
  
• Another
  tropical disturbance will produce excessive rain along the central Vietnam coast Friday through Monday with amounts of 4.00 to 15.00 inches resulting in some serious flooding
• Excessive
  rain is expected to develop along the lower coast of Myanmar Friday and advance up the entire west coast Saturday through Monday producing 5.00 to more than 12.00 inches of rain and resulting in serious flooding
  
• Damage
  to rice and some sugarcane will be possible
• Some
  of the greatest rain will occur in the important rice production region in Irrawaddy and Yangon
  
• Less
  rain was suggested for Bangladesh in the coming week because of the shift eastward in the greatest rainfall impacting Myanmar
  

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Oct. 14:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, and beef, 8:30am
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• North
  America cocoa grindings
• Suedzucker
  half-year earnings
• Agrana
  half-year earnings
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong

Friday,
Oct. 15:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of trader’s report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of trader’s weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  monthly data on green coffee stockpiles
• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn is
higher this morning after trading at a three-week low earlier this week.  WTI is higher. 

·        
The US Midwestern centra and southeastern areas will see rain today, and southern and eastern areas Friday. 

·        
Germany reported a case of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in a cow in south of the country.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 7,000 barrels (969-995 range) from the previous week and stocks down 97,000 barrels to 19.931 million.

·        
USDA FSA Acreage is delayed.  When updated, it will be posted here
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/efoia/electronic-reading-room/frequently-requested-information/crop-acreage-data/index

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  bought 325,000 tons of animal feed corn, optional origin for shipment between Nov. 15 and Dec. 6.  Prices ranged from $307.40 to $319.25/ton. 
  

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are higher on technical buying and higher Paris rapeseed prices.  Soybean oil was unchanged to moderately higher and meal higher despite a mixed trade overnight in global related product markets.

·        
A Reuters poll calls for the NOPA September US crush at 155.1 million bushels, down 2.4% from 158.8 million bushels processed in August and down 4% from September 2020.  Soybean oil stocks were pegged at 1.663 billion pounds,
down 0.3% from 1.668 billion at the end of August. 

·        
UK’s AgMin sees the rapeseed crop down 5.9% at 977,000 tons.  The planted area decreased 20% and average yield was 3.2 tons/hectare vs. 2.7 year earlier. 

·        
Australia may see a record canola crop of 5 million tons, a welcome relief for producers that have been impacted by China’s tariffs on Australian barley. 

·        
Malaysia maintained its November export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but increased the reference price, to 4,523.29 ringgit ($1,088.64) per ton for November. October reference price was 4,472.46 ringgit a ton.

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures

·        
Rotterdam meal and oil values were mixed. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 118 points lower and meal $0.30/short ton lower. 

·        
China cash crush margins were last 219 cents/bu (224 previous) on our analysis versus 187 cents late last week and 97 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

• Under
  the USDA 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported sales of:
• 132,000
  metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
  

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is higher from dry weather expected for the US HRW wheat country, a lower USD and light technical buying.  

·        
December Paris wheat was 4.00 euros higher earlier at 268.75 euros a ton.

·        
US hard red winter wheat areas will trend drier for at least more than a week, good for harvest progress but bad for recently emerged wheat. 

·        
China raised their minimum prices for wheat in 2022 at 2,300 yuan ($357) per ton, up from 2,260 yuan per ton in 2021. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of barley at $329.75 a ton, including cost and freight, for shipment during LH January. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 20.

·        
Results awaited: Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat. 

·        
Japan bought 119,512 tons of food wheat on Thursday for arrival by January 31. 

·        
Pakistan’s lowest offer for 90,000 tons of optional origin wheat was $388.83 a ton c&f. 

·        
Turkey seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on Oct. 21 for shipment between Dec. 10 and Dec. 31. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on October 26 for January 1-March 31 shipment.