FI Morning Grain Comments 10/28/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

A
quieter start after two consecutive sessions of choppy trade.  MN spring wheat continues to see a bullish sentiment after Egypt bought 360,000 tons of wheat yesterday and Saudi Arabia opened an import tender overnight.  There were no USDA 24-hour sales. 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 28, 2021

• Argentina
  was quite warm to hot and dry again Wednesday and today will not be much different.
  
• Some
  showers and thunderstorms will occur in the northwest Friday into Saturday and in the southwest later this weekend, but central and eastern parts of the nation along with southern Brazil, Uruguay and southern Paraguay will likely see below average precipitation
  for an extended period, although it will not be completely dry.
• Center
  west and center south Brazil will get periodic rain.
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat production areas will be dry biased for a while along with the northern Plains, central Canada’s Prairies the southwestern states, including southern California.
  
• More
  rain in the U.S. Midwest followed by cooling will keep harvest progress on hold for a while, but conditions may improve next week.
  
• Eastern
  Australia will see a little more rainfall in time, but the nation’s winter crops look extremely good.
  
• Not
  much change was noted for China, India Russia, Ukraine, or Europe relative to the forecasts from Wednesday. 
  
• South
  Africa will see scattered showers, but greater rain will be needed for its spring and summer crop planting
• Excessive
  rain in Vietnam is taking a much needed break for a while, although some rain will occur periodically along the central coast
• The
  lower east coast of India will see abundant excessive rainfall in the coming week to ten days, although the next few days will not be nearly as wet

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Oct. 28:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Oct. 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases October trade data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Oct 23: 281K (est 288K; prev 290K)

–
Continuing Jobless Claims Oct 16: 2243K (est 2420K; prev 2481K)

livesquawk
US GDP Annualized (Q/Q) 3Q A: 2.0% (est 2.6%; prev 6.7%)

–
Personal Consumption 3Q A: 1.6% (est 0.9%; prev 12.0%)

–
GDP Price Index 3Q A: 5.7% (est 5.3%; prev 6.1%)

–
Core PCE (Q/Q) 3Q A: 4.5% (est 4.5%; prev 6.1%)

livesquawk
Canada Non-Farm Payrolls Rose 59.7K In August To 16.7M

 

Corn

·        
After December corn hit a 2-month high yesterday, its trading lower on technical selling and lower WTI crude oil. 

·        
Weekly export sales were on the lower side for corn, wheat, and the soybean complex. 

·        
Losses are seen limited after EIA reported a higher than expected weekly ethanol production on Wednesday, a signal domestic demand is robust. 

·        
There were no USDA 24-hour sales despite rumors yesterday China’s import arb was favorable for them to commit to NA corn. 

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower in a quiet trade and lack of direction.  The products are also lower in part to lower energy prices and risk off.  USAD export sales were on the low side for all three commodities. 

·        
There were no USDA 24-hour announcements. 

·        
Egypt is looking to increase its price of subsidized vegetable oil to 25 Egyptian pounds ($1.60) per 1-litre bottle, in effort to cool inflation.

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures:

·        
Rotterdam meal values were 3-7 euros lower and vegetable oils mixed. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 50 points higher and meal $6.20 short ton lower. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.39/bu ($2.30 previous), down from $2.47 at the end of last week and compares to $1.39 a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

·        
The USDA seeks 20 tons of vegetable oil in 4-liter cans for Dec 1-13 shipment on November 2.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mixed with follow through bullish sentiment for high protein wheat.  It appears major importers may step up in securing wheat used for human consumption to get ahead of potential tight global stocks.  USDA
export sales were at the low end of expectations. 

·        
The US Great Plains will turn drier Friday through the weekend after seeing rains wrap up today across the southern growing areas. 

·        
IKAR: Russia’s wheat crop 75-75.6 MMT vs. 74.5-75.5 MMT previous. 

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat to last for 5 months. 

·        
Paris December wheat was down 1.25 euros by around 7:50 am CT at 283.50. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Saudi Arabia seeks 655,000 tons of wheat on October 29. 

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of barley at $333 a ton c&f. 

·        
Pakistan issued a new tender for 90,000 tons of wheat due on Nov. 4 for Jan through April shipment. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Maldives seeks 25,000 tons of parboiled rice with offers due by October 28. 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  10/21/21 

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	145.9	1,743.8	1,553.2	43.0	3,210.3	4,365.1	0.0	0.0
SRW	7.4	572.7	384.8	73.9	1,281.4	915.3	0.0	0.0
HRS	42.3	998.2	1,566.0	44.9	2,381.7	2,995.7	0.0	0.0
WHITE	27.7	662.7	1,823.0	7.8	1,606.6	2,017.4	0.0	0.0
DURUM	45.9	72.4	200.9	15.9	77.3	338.5	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	269.3	4,049.9	5,527.8	185.6	8,557.2	10,632.1	0.0	0.0
BARLEY	0.0	22.9	31.6	0.8	7.2	10.4	0.0	0.0
CORN	890.4	24,639.7	24,453.2	688.5	5,144.9	6,125.1	0.0	337.4
SORGHUM	133.0	2,486.1	2,756.9	2.1	265.7	519.9	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	1,183.4	22,209.2	32,850.8	2,405.8	8,242.3	14,050.5	0.0	19.8
SOY MEAL	161.5	3,754.4	3,494.3	184.0	701.8	646.2	0.5	37.1
SOY OIL	14.6	111.7	190.3	2.4	10.9	30.9	0.0	0.1
RICE
L G RGH	2.5	240.8	518.0	47.3	285.4	153.3	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	7.0	20.7	0.3	2.2	8.2	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	8.5	12.0	0.7	16.2	9.4	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	54.3	19.8	0.1	14.3	28.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	20.6	86.3	86.2	11.7	216.0	109.0	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	1.9	69.0	150.6	2.4	77.9	84.9	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	25.2	466.0	807.4	62.5	611.9	393.6	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	360.8	6,453.1	5,821.8	63.4	1,916.6	2,927.9	20.0	836.3
PIMA	8.5	191.0	271.4	2.2	76.6	139.1	0.0	0.0

 

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 15-21, 2021. 

Wheat:  Net sales of 269,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 26 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily
for Mexico (140,800 MT, including decreases of 4,900 MT), Ecuador (24,700 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), Honduras (22,600 MT), Singapore (22,000 MT), and South Korea (19,500 MT), were offset by reductions
for Canada (500 MT) and Colombia (200 MT).  Exports of 185,600 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 52 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Taiwan (37,100 MT), Japan (34,800 MT), Mexico (33,800 MT), Ecuador
(24,700 MT), and Chile (21,900 MT).  

Export Adjustment:  Accumulated exports of hard red winter wheat to Mexico were adjusted down 101 MT for week ending September 16^th.  This shipment was reported
in error.  

Corn:  Net sales of 890,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
primarily for Mexico (492,900 MT, including decreases of 14,600 MT), Japan (193,600 MT, including 22,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,000 MT), Colombia (100,500 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases
of 16,000 MT), unknown destinations (44,400 MT), and Panama (19,000 MT), were offset by reductions for China (1,200 MT) and South Korea (400 MT).  Exports of 688,500 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The
destinations were primarily to Mexico (275,500 MT), Japan (148,800 MT), Colombia (144,100 MT), China (66,800 MT), and Costa Rica (38,000 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 139,500 MT were reported for unknown destinations (120,000 MT), Italy (10,500 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000
MT).  The current outstanding balance of 479,300 MT is for unknown destinations (370,000 MT), South Korea (65,000 MT), Italy (35,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT). 

Barley:  No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 800 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 93 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination
was to Japan.  

Sorghum:  Total net sales of 133,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down 49 percent from the previous week, but up 54 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination reported
was unknown destinations.  Exports of 2,100 MT were down 95 percent from the previous week and 97 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to Mexico.  

Rice:  Net sales of 25,200 MT for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down 69 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were
primarily for Haiti (15,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (4,100 MT), Canada (3,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,500 MT), and Guatemala (300 MT).  Exports of 62,500 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (38,300 MT), Costa Rica (10,200 MT), Haiti (7,200 MT), Canada (3,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (1,900 MT).   

Exports for Own Account: For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.  

Soybeans:  Net sales of 1,183,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 59 percent from the previous week and 22 percent the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,081,000
MT, including 449,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 66,000 MT switched from Hong Kong, and decreases of 25,300 MT), the Netherlands (117,800 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Mexico (93,900 MT,
including decreases of 5,800 MT), Taiwan (71,600 MT), and Pakistan (69,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (469,300 MT).  Exports of 2,405,800 MT were up 9 percent from
the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,790,600 MT), Mexico (187,600 MT), the Netherlands (113,400 MT), Japan (78,500 MT), and Pakistan (69,000 MT). 

Export for Own Account: For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 30,800 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 36,600
MT, all Canada. 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 161,500 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for the Philippines (134,000 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from France and 45,000 MT switched from
Spain), Canada (70,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Thailand (50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (34,200 MT), and Morocco (21,200 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (59,300
MT), Spain (45,000 MT), Germany (45,000 MT), and France (45,000 MT).  Total net sales of 500 MT for 2022/2023 were for Canada.  Exports of 184,000 MT were primarily to Colombia (39,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (28,100 MT), Japan
(21,300 MT), Mexico (20,700 MT), and Costa Rica (18,200 MT).   

Soybean Oil:  Net sales of 14,600 MT for 2021/2022 were reported for South Korea (9,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,800 MT), Canada (1,900 MT), and Mexico (900 MT).  Exports
of 2,400 MT were to Mexico (1,600 MT), Canada (600 MT), and Honduras (200 MT). 

Cotton:  Net sales of 360,800 RB for 2021/2022 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China
(186,700 RB, including 4,400 RB switched from Vietnam and decreases of 5,300 RB), Turkey (149,200 RB), India (5,700 RB), South Korea (4,300 RB), and Mexico (3,900 RB), were offset by reductions for Ecuador (200 RB).  Total net sales of 20,000 RB for 2022/2023
were for China.  Exports of 63,400 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 46 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Pakistan (12,600 RB), Vietnam (11,200 RB), Turkey (8,800 RB), China (8,500
RB), and Mexico (7,800 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 8,500 RB were down 65 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for India (4,800 RB), Peru (1,900 RB), China (900 RB), Thailand (500 RB), and Japan
(300 RB), were offset by reductions for Colombia (100 RB).  Exports of 2,200 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 60 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to India.  

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB is for Pakistan.   

Exports for Own Account:  For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 4,800 RB is for China (4,700 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB). 

Hides and Skins:  Net sales of 566,000 pieces for 2021 were up 36 percent from the previous
week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (396,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 4,000 pieces), South Korea (58,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 700 pieces), Thailand (30,400 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 800 pieces), Mexico (27,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 200 pieces), and Brazil (22,000 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (800 pieces).  Total net sales of 8,400 calf skins were reported for
Italy.  In addition, total net sales reductions of 100 kip skins were for Belgium Exports of 405,000 pieces were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily to China (268,600
pieces), South Korea (35,900 pieces), Mexico (26,600 pieces), Taiwan (18,200 pieces), and Brazil (17,800 pieces).  In addition, exports of 2,700 kip skins were to Belgium.   

Net sales of 212,900 wet blues for 2021 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily
for Vietnam (107,800 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), China (56,500 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Italy (11,400 grain splits and 7,700 unsplit, including decreases of 200 grain splits and 300 unsplit), Thailand (12,000 unsplit),
and Taiwan (11,200 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Mexico (100 grain splits).  Net sales reductions of 2,400 wet blues for 2022 resulting in increases for Vietnam (800 unsplit), were more than offset by reductions for Italy (3,200 unsplit).  Exports
of 125,000 wet blues were down 45 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (37,900 unsplit), China (35,200 unsplit), Italy (30,000 unsplit and 5,100 grain splits), Mexico (5,200
grain splits and 900 unsplit), and Thailand (6,000 unsplit).  Net sales of 565,600 splits were for China (360,600 splits) and Vietnam (205,000 splits).  Exports of 495,700 pounds were to China (295,700 pounds) and Vietnam (200,000 pounds). 

Beef:  Net sales of 19,200 MT reported for 2021 were up noticeably
from the previous week and up 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (6,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (4,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (2,800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Mexico
(2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Net sales of 5,000 MT for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (4,100 MT), Indonesia (500 MT), and Japan (200 MT).  Exports of 16,700 MT were down 2 percent from
the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,700 MT), Japan (4,000 MT), China (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT).   

Pork:  Net sales of 29,500 MT reported for 2021 were up 41 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
primarily for Mexico (16,900 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (3,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (2,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (1,400 MT).  Exports of 32,800 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (16,400 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China
(3,500 MT), Colombia (2,100 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).  

Export Adjustment:  Accumulated exports of pork to Chile were adjusted down 7 MT for week ending
October 14^th.  This shipment was reported in error.   

October 28, 2021                                1             FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

                       SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS                       
Reported Under the Daily Reporting System
For Period Ending October 21, 2021

                  Commodity                              Destination                             Quantity (MT)           Marketing   

                

                  CORN                                      MEXICO                                130,000 MT 1/           2021/2022

                 

                 1/ Export Sales.