FI Morning Grain Comments 11/02/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
is lower, WTI slightly lower and equities mixed ahead of US Fed rate decision day. CBOT wheat is sharply lower after Russia agreed to allow gain shipping to resume across the Black Sea grain export corridor. The Russian defense ministry received written guarantees
from Ukraine not to use the grain corridor for military action against Russia. World export developments were light on Wednesday. Jordan passed on barley. Soybeans are lower from weakness in meal. Soybean oil is higher following another leg up in palm oil
futures. Argentina may postpone wheat export licenses. Corn futures are lower from the resumption of the Black Sea shipping deal. Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 39 points lower earlier this morning and meal $2.20 short ton lower.

 

 

 

Weather

Western
NE will see rain Thursday. NE, KS, western OK, and western TX will see rain Friday. The Midwest will see light rain Thursday through Friday bias northwestern areas. Northeastern areas of Brazil will see rain this week. Argentina will see net drying over the
next 5 days.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 2, 2022

• Center
  west through southern Brazil will be dry through the coming seven to nine days and then some showers will begin to resume in the latter part of next week
• Argentina
  will be dry biased for another week and perhaps a few days longer
• Rain
  will resume in portions of Brazil and Argentina during the a mid-month approaches
• Beneficial
  rain will fall in northeastern Brazil over the next several days bolstering soil moisture for planting
• Good
  field working conditions are expected in Brazil and Argentina during the coming week of dryness, but rain will be needed by the second half of next week
  
• U.S.
  high Plains weather is expected to be dry biased over the next week to ten days
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies will be dry until next week when some rain and snow evolves for both regions
• Colder
  air will be pooling in northwestern U.S. and far western Canada during the next week with some of it expected to reach the north-central U.S. and a larger part of the western U.S. during the second week of the forecast
• Rain
  from Oklahoma and Arkansas into Wisconsin and Illinois this weekend will maintain good soil moisture in that region while eastern most parts of the U.S. Midwest and southeastern states are left dry
• U.S.
  Delta rainfall is expected late in the weekend and early next week causing some harvest delay, but the moisture will be welcome for winter crops and might contribute briefly to a boost in river flows
• Not
  much change was noted for Europe, the western CIS, China or India, although east-central China should get some rain during the second half of next week and southern India will continue to deal with some heavy rainfall and potential for flooding
• Eastern
  Australia will experience net drying for a week and then get some moisture that will concentrate on the southeastern part of the nation initially
  
• South
  Africa will trend wetter, especially next week

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Nov. 2:

• Indonesian
  Palm Oil Conference in Bali, day 1

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Thursday,
Nov. 3:

• Indonesian
  Palm Oil Conference in Bali, day 2

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Friday,
Nov. 4:

• Indonesian
  Palm Oil Conference in Bali, day 3

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
ADP Employment Change Oct: 239K (est 185K; prev 208K)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn prices are sharply lower on the Black Sea shipping deal. Next on deck is the US Fed interest rate reaction (75-point increase expected).

·        
September US corn for ethanol use was 383 million bushels, slightly below a trade estimate of 394 million bushels.

 

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT
soybeans are lower following technical selling, lower wheat, and weaknesses in soybean meal.

·        
Soybean oil is higher after Malaysian palm oil reached a 12-week high.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were 401 contracts with no major commercial stoppers.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was up 165 Ringgit to 4,398 and cash was up $17.50/ton to $987.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were up 0.6%, meal up 1.2%, soybean oil 2.9% higher and palm oil 2.9% higher.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were mixed (soybean oil higher and lower rapeseed oil), from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was 8-12 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 39 points lower earlier this morning and meal $2.20 short ton lower.

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 11.

·        
US soybean crush for the month of September was 167.6 million bushels, 0.3 below a Bloomberg trade guess and up from 164.1 million September 2021. The September 2022 crush averaged 5.59 million bushels per day versus 5.65 million
during August and 5.47 million September 2021. End of September soybean oil stocks were 1.999 billion pounds, 32 million above Bloomberg’s average (but near Reuters estimate), down from 2.104 billion at the end of August and compares to 2.131 billion at the
end of September 2021. 

 

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

·        
CBOT wheat is sharply lower after Russia agreed to allow gain shipping to resume across the Black Sea grain export corridor. The Russian defense ministry received written guarantees from Ukraine not to use the grain corridor for
military action against Russia.

·        
Argentina may postpone wheat export licenses. We are hearing its official.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 16 euros earlier at 341.75 euros a ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment after passing November 2.

·        
Today China planned to auction off 40,000 tons of wheat from state reserves.

·        
China plana to auction off 40,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on November 9.

·        
Result awaited: Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on October 30, nearly one week later than their original close date.

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 50,500 tons of rice from the US and/or EU on November 9 for arrival between February and June.