FI Morning Grain Comments 11/04/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

USDA
export sales were all near the top end of trade expectations.  The USD is higher by 31 points and WTI crude oil is up $2.28.  US equities are pointing to a higher open.  The US Midwest will be mostly dry over the next 5 days before rain arrives day 6-7 starting
with the WCB moving into the east.  The US Great Plains will see dry weather through the end of the week.  Brazil will see rain through Monday for Mato Grosso, Goias, north Minas Gerais, MGDS, south Parana, and Santa Catarina.  Before dry weather sets in this
weekend, rain will continue to fall across northern Cordoba, northern Santa Fe. 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 4, 2021

•  Bitter
  cold air over far eastern Russia will push into parts of Mongolia, Inner Mongolia and northeastern Xinjiang, China over the next few days. As some of the cold gets into China’s Northeast Provinces there is likely to be a significant snow and sleet storm that
  will disrupt travel, bring trees and power lines down and threaten livestock health.
  
• The
  storm begins Friday in Inner Mongolia and will be in northeastern China Saturday through Monday.
  
• In
  the meantime, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, Rio Grande do Sul and a few neighboring areas of Brazil will not get much rain over the next ten days to two weeks and this may be the start of a festering pattern. 
  
• Good
  rainfall is expected elsewhere in South America’s crop country.
• In
  the U.S. weather conditions did not change overnight.
• Good
  U.S. harvest weather will occur into early next week, but a storm mid- to late-week next week will disrupt harvesting once again in the Midwest and Delta, but not in the southeastern states (at least not significantly). 
  
• U.S.
  west-central and southwestern Plains are still advertised to be mostly dry over the next couple of weeks along with West Texas.
  
• Southern
  India will continue moving into a more broad-based wet pattern while northern India is dry.
  
• Eastern
  Australia is still advertised to see increasing rainfall while the west is dry.
  
• Europe
  and the CIS will see a mix of weather along with South Africa.
• Some
  light precipitation will impact Russia’s Volga River Basin and parts of Ukraine next week.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Nov. 4:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price, 8pm Wednesday ET time
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Malaysia, Singapore

Friday,
Nov. 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish demand-supply reports on corn, soy and other commodities
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Nov. 1-5 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Sales
were reported at the high end of a range of expectations for the soybean complex, corn, and wheat.  Soybean sales of 1.86 million tons included 1.2 million tons, but 510,000 tons of this was switched from unknow.  Soybean commitments are running 33 percent
below the previous year’s pace and represent 57 percent of USDA’s export projection.  Soybean meal sales were 2266,600 tons and shipments were good at 211,100 tons.  Soybean oil sales of 11,200 tons were down slightly from the previous week, and shipments
were 10,200 tons, an improvement.  USDA corn export sales of 1.224 million tons surprised us with the lack of 24-hour announcements for the week ending October 28 and included regular importing countries (no China).  Corn commitments are running 7 percent
below year ago and sales are running 49 percent of USDA’s export projection.  Sorghum sales were an impressive 265,600 tons including 268,500 tons for China (unknown decrease of 3,000).  All-wheat sales improved 400,100 tons from 269,300 tons previous week. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Oct 30: 269K (est 275K; prev 281K; prevR 283K)

–
Continuing Jobless Claims Oct 23: 2.105M (prev 2.243M; prevR 2.239M)

US
Labour Costs Q3 P: 8.3% (est 7.0%; prev 1.3%)

US
International Trade $ Sep: -80.9B (est -80.5B; prev -73.3B)

Canada
Trade Balance Sep: 1.86B (est 1.55B; prev 1.94B)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher on technical buying, rebound in WTI crude oil, and higher wheat.  USDA export sales were good. 

·        
Goldman roll for December contacts starts Friday.

·        
US ethanol production increased 1,000 barrels to 1.107, just shy of its 1.108 million weekly record, and stocks increased by a more than expected 204,000 barrels. 

·        
The USDA Broiler report showed eggs set in the US up 5 percent and chicks placed up 5 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 9, 2021 through October 30, 2021 for the United States were 7.98 billion. Cumulative
placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower in part to a sharply higher USD and spreading against wheat.  Soybean meal is giving back some of its gains after rallying Wednesday.  Soybean oil is mostly higher following higher energy prices.  USDA
export sales for the soybean complex were good. 

·        
Offshore values are favoring soybean oil over soybean meal.  Note Malaysia is on holiday.   

·        
Argentina has a chance for showers, but precipitation amounts will remain well below normal. 

·        
Rotterdam meal values were mostly slightly lower to 3 euros higher and vegetable oils mixed. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil about 20 points higher and meal $2.70 short ton lower. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.42/bu ($2.34 previous), compared to $2.32 at the end of last week and compares to $1.15 a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

·        
No fresh announcements. 

·        
Yesterday Egypt’s GASC bought sunflower oil and passed on soybean oil.  They bought 15,000 tons of sunflower oil at $1,440/tons for arrival between December 25 and January 15.  They were in for 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000
tons of sunflower oil

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are trading higher on some concerns over US wheat conditions bias southwest and parts of the Great Plains that missed out on rains this week, and concerns over the eastern Australia wheat crop, as too much rain
may be lowering proteins levels.

·        
USDA export sales improved from the previous week. 

·        
China traders there were concerned over tight wheat stocks might have been relieved after the government mentioned wheat stocks were sufficient for 1.5 years.  China also said the sow herd was 6 percent higher than normal.  They
went onto say China vegetable oil production was “basically normal.”

·        
Paris December wheat was up 1.25 euros by around 7:55 am CT at 290.75.

 

Export
Developments. 

• Pakistan
  received offers for 90,000 tons of wheat for Jan through April shipment. Lowest offer was believed to be $407.38 a ton, cost and freight (c&f) included.
• Jordan
  passed on barley. 
• Japan
  bought 143,396 tons of food wheat.  Original details as follows. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

USDA
Export Sales

 

U.S.
EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  10/28/2021

FAX
202-690-3275

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	206.0	1,887.2	1,633.2	62.7	3,272.9	4,484.4	0.0	0.0
SRW	54.2	600.0	418.6	27.0	1,308.4	937.7	0.0	0.0
HRS	73.0	1,025.4	1,616.6	45.8	2,427.5	3,108.5	0.0	0.0
WHITE	66.9	728.7	1,936.2	0.9	1,607.5	2,080.8	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.0	72.4	200.9	0.0	77.3	340.0	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	400.1	4,313.6	5,805.5	136.4	8,693.6	10,951.4	0.0	0.0
BARLEY	0.0	22.8	31.1	0.1	7.3	10.9	0.0	0.0
CORN	1,223.8	25,115.0	26,335.3	748.5	5,893.5	6,853.9	0.0	337.4
SORGHUM	265.6	2,748.0	3,027.0	3.7	269.4	614.8	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	1,863.9	21,422.7	31,853.2	2,650.5	10,892.7	16,578.6	0.0	19.8
SOY MEAL	226.6	3,769.9	3,596.4	211.1	912.9	875.5	-0.2	36.9
SOY OIL	11.2	112.7	174.2	10.2	21.1	53.8	0.0	0.1
RICE
L G RGH	11.9	222.3	464.5	30.4	315.9	215.2	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	6.8	20.4	0.2	2.3	8.5	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.1	8.4	11.3	0.2	16.4	10.3	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	54.3	18.7	0.1	14.4	29.8	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	2.5	86.3	87.1	2.5	218.5	112.7	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	15.3	67.6	146.6	16.8	94.6	103.9	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	29.8	445.6	748.8	50.2	662.1	480.5	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	139.1	6,450.3	5,667.3	141.9	2,058.5	3,197.9	20.6	856.9
PIMA	31.8	215.2	266.3	7.6	84.2	161.0	1.8	1.8

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 22-28, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 400,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 49 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (101,400 MT, including decreases of 26,000 MT), South Korea (50,000 MT), Taiwan (48,400 MT),
unknown destinations (31,700 MT), and Japan (30,300 MT), were offset by reductions for China (100 MT).  Exports of 136,400 MT were down 27 percent from the previous week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico
(27,000 MT), Panama (24,600 MT), Honduras (23,400 MT), Jamaica (22,500 MT), and Canada (17,800 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,223,800 MT for 2021/2022 were up 37 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (666,300 MT, including decreases of 18,300 MT), Japan (114,900 MT, including 50,900 MT switched
from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,500 MT), Guatemala (105,400 MT), Colombia (77,500 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Saudi Arabia (74,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (12,900 MT) and Panama
(1,800 MT).  Exports of 748,500 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (317,300 MT), Japan (162,900 MT), Colombia (136,200 MT), Venezuela (43,600 MT), and Nicaragua
(26,300 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 29,000 MT were reported for Italy (20,000 MT) and unknown destinations (9,000 MT).  The current outstanding balance of 508,300 MT is for unknown destinations (379,000 MT), South Korea (65,000 MT), Italy (55,300 MT),
and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).

Barley: 
No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 100 MT were down 92 percent from the previous week and 90 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was to Taiwan.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 265,600MT for 2021/2022 resulting in increases for China (268,500 MT) and Japan (100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (3,000 MT).  Exports of 3,700 MT were up 77 percent from the previous week, but down 90 percent from the
prior 4-week average.  The destination was primarily to China (2,300 MT).

Rice:
 Net
sales of 29,800 MT for 2021/2022 were up 19 percent from the previous week, but down 44 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (13,000 MT), Guatemala (10,200 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Honduras (1,300
MT).  Exports of 50,200 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Honduras (21,800 MT), Japan (13,000 MT), Mexico (9,200 MT), Canada (2,200 MT), and Jordan (2,100 MT). 

Exports
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 200 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 1,863,900 MT for 2021/2022 were up 58 percent from the previous week and 19 percent the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,207,300 MT, including 510,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 14,000 MT), Mexico
(157,400 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), the Netherlands (142,100 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,900 MT), Egypt (140,500 MT, including decreases of 1,600 MT), and Spain (92,900 MT, including 64,000 MT switched
from China and 26,000 MT switched unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (137,600 MT).  Exports of 2,650,500 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were
primarily to China (1,864,500 MT), Mexico (178,600 MT), the Netherlands (142,100 MT), Spain (92,900 MT), and Egypt (87,100 MT).

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 29,800 MT were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 66,400 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 226,600 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for Mexico (71,000 MT), Guatemala (44,200 MT), Morocco (24,000 MT), El Salvador (22,700 MT), and Venezuela (20,500 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily
for unknown destinations (18,600 MT).  Total net sales reductions of 200 MT for 2022/2023 were for Japan.  Exports of 211,100 MT were primarily to Ecuador (40,300 MT), Honduras (34,000 MT), Canada (30,500 MT), Mexico (23,900 MT),
and Venezuela (20,500 MT). 

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 11,200 MT for 2021/2022 were primarily for Mexico (6,500 MT), Costa Rica (4,000 MT), and Guatemala (500 MT).  Exports of 10,200 MT were primarily to Costa Rica (4,200 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Honduras (1,000 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 139,100 RB for 2021/2022 were down 61 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (44,800 RB, including decreases of 30,400 RB), India (24,300 RB), Turkey (23,700 RB), Vietnam
(18,100 RB), and Peru (13,700 RB).  Net sales of 20,600 RB for 2022/2023 reported for Turkey (13,200 RB) and Pakistan (8,800 RB), were offset by reductions for China (1,400 RB).  Exports of 141,900 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 42 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (61,100 RB), Mexico (24,400 RB), Pakistan (13,100 RB), Turkey (7,400 RB), and El Salvador (6,900 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 31,800 RB–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably
from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Vietnam (8,700 RB), India (7,900 RB, including decreases of 400 RB), China (7,300 RB), Pakistan (3,700 RB), and Turkey (2,200 RB).  Total net sales of 1,800 RB for 2022/2023
were for Egypt.  Exports of 7,600 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (5,400 RB), Peru (1,600 RB), and Thailand (400 RB). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB is for Pakistan. 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account totaling 4,700 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The outstanding balance of 100 RB is for Vietnam. 

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 463,500 pieces for 2021 were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (378,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 17,000 pieces), South Korea (36,200 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces), Thailand (25,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), Indonesia (9,600 whole cattle hides), and Mexico (8,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 3,300 pieces), were offset by reductions
primarily for Cambodia (4,800 pieces).  Net sales of 6,200 pieces for 2022 were reported for China (3,600 whole cattle hides) and Mexico (2,600 whole cattle hides).  Total net sales reductions of 2,800 calf skins were for Italy.  In addition, total net sales
of 1,400 kip skins were for Italy.  Exports of 402,400 pieces were down 1 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily to China (261,800 pieces), South Korea (58,300 pieces), Mexico (31,200
pieces), Thailand (29,700 pieces), and Brazil (13,600 pieces). 

Net
sales of 92,400 wet blues for 2021 were down 57 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Italy (47,900 unsplit, 100 grain splits, and decreases of 200 grain splits), Thailand (20,200 unsplit), China
(13,700 unsplit), Vietnam (10,500 unsplit), and Mexico (1,300 unsplit, including decreases 3,000 unsplit and 200 grain splits), were offset by reductions for Brazil (1,800 unsplit).  Net sales reductions of 200 wet blues for 2022 resulting in increases for
Mexico (3,000 unsplit) and Italy (1,600 unsplit), were more than offset by reductions for Vietnam (4,800 unsplit).  Exports of 134,200 wet blues were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (46,600 unsplit), Italy (30,100 unsplit and 11,300 grain splits), Vietnam (29,400 unsplit), Mexico (5,000 grain splits and 4,300 unsplit), and Thailand (6,200 unsplit).  Net sales of 961,900 splits were for Vietnam (960,000 splits)
and China (1,900 splits).  Exports of 242,900 pounds were to Vietnam (200,000 pounds) and China (42,900 pounds). 

Beef: 
Net
sales of 16,700 MT for 2021 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (6,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (2,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT),
Japan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Taiwan (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Net sales of 3,500 MT for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (2,700 MT) and Japan (700 MT).  Exports
of 16,800 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,600 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), China (3,100 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net
sales of 45,700 MT for 2021 were up 55 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (18,500 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (16,000 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (3,500 MT,
including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (2,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and South Korea (2,000 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), were offset by reductions for Chile (700 MT).  Net sales of 400 MT for 2022 were reported for Japan.  Exports of
33,800 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,800 MT), China (4,400 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), Colombia (2,800 MT), and South Korea (2,300 MT). 

Export
Adjustment: 
Accumulated exports of pork to the Dominican Republic were adjusted down 3 MT for week ending
October 21^st.  This shipment was reported in error.