FI Morning Grain Comments 11/07/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
is down about 54 points, WTI crude oil was slightly lower and US equities pointing towards a higher open.
CBOT soybeans, meal and nearby soybean oil are mixed. Corn and Chicago wheat
are lower. China
denied it was considering easing its zero-COVID policy. China on Sunday reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months. China’s soybean imports in October fell 19% to 4.14 million tons from a year earlier. Jan-oct soybean imports stand
at 73.18 million tons, down 7.4 percent from year earlier. CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero. Malaysia January palm oil futures was up 66 Ringgit to 4,433 and cash was up $10.00/ton to $1002.50/ton. Offshore values this morning were leading soybean
oil 98 points lower earlier this morning and meal $7.10 short ton lower. Egypt is in for wheat.

 

 

Weather

Much
of Brazil and Paraguay remained dry and Brazil saw good planting progress during the weekend, with rain noted in a few central, northern, and southern areas. Paraguay is done with soybean plantings. Argentina remained mostly dry during the weekend and dry
weather and “good planting progress will be most common through the next two weeks with showers in the southwest Wednesday into Thursday and nearly widespread rain Friday into Sunday important for many western, central, and northern areas,” according to World
Weather Inc. The US weather forecast for the Great Plains turned slightly negative. Parts of OK and TX will see rain through Tuesday. The upper Midwest will see rain over the next 7 days.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 7, 2022

• Subtropical
  Storm Nicole evolved overnight in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it will produce windy conditions and eventually quite a bit of rain in Florida and the northern Bahamas later this week
  
• The
  storm could bring a risk of damage to citrus and sugarcane areas in Florida, but much will depend upon the storm’s ultimate intensity and precise movement
• Landfall
  may occur in the northern Bahamas Wednesday and along the lower east coast of Florida Thursday
  
• West-central
  U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue too dry for the best establishment and very little is expected over the next two weeks
• A
  rain and snowstorm will impact the upper U.S. Midwest and a part of the northern U.S. Plains late this week and into the weekend
• This
  system is too intense in today’s model forecasts, but substantial snowfall is likely from the Dakotas to upper Michigan during the second half of this week
  
• Early
  indications suggest 8-15 inches with a few totals over 20 inches
• Weekend
  precipitation from eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and the Delta to Wisconsin and western Illinois was welcome for its moisture and runoff potential, although more rain is needed before the Mississippi River experiences a significant improvement in water
  levels – some rise in the river is likely, but much more precipitation will be needed to induce a more meaningful rise and one that would be sustainable
• Net
  drying is likely in the heart of the Midwest, the Delta and interior southeastern states over this first week of the outlook
• A
  disturbance may bring rain to the Delta and interior southeastern states next week and into the following weekend, but confidence is low on its significance
• Significant
  moisture will fall in California’s Sierra Nevada today into Wednesday that will begin to improve mountain snowpack
• Rain
  in the central valleys of California will be light, but some moisture will fall
• Snow
  cover in Canada’s Prairies is nearly widespread now
• South
  America weather will trend wetter late this week through next week with many areas in Argentina and Brazil getting rain
• Europe
  and western Asia will be warmer than usual for much of the coming two weeks
  
• Precipitation
  in Europe and the western Asia will be restricted over the next couple of weeks, although it will not be totally dry
• China
  will get rain in wheat areas of the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain later this week and into the weekend
  
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin rapeseed region will stay drier than usual into early next week with some potential for rain later next week
  
• South
  Africa will get periodic rain in its summer crop areas
• Australia
  is expecting rain again late this week and into the weekend with some scattered showers expected between now and then
• Recent
  drying has improved winter crops and field conditions and the environment for summer crop planting is improving for well drained and higher elevated areas.
• More
  drying is needed
  

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 7:

• China’s
  first batch of October trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn, soy, cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• Vietnam’s
  customs dept releases Oct. coffee, rice and rubber export data

Tuesday,
Nov. 8:

• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates 2022 crop production estimates
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Wednesday,
Nov. 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans

Thursday,
Nov. 10:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica

Friday,
Nov. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• DELAYED:
  CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, usually released Fridays, will be published Monday, Nov. 14
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  US, France, Canada

Saturday,
Nov. 12:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 1

Sunday,
Nov 13:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 2

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due
out November 9

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn prices were lower this morning following wheat and lack of fresh news. The SUD is lower and may limit losses for corn futures.

·        
China on Sunday reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months.

·        
The EPA and a biofuels trade group (Growth Energy) agreed to delay the EPA (final) proposal for 2023 biofuel blending obligations by two weeks. November 30 is now the final deadline to issue renewable fuel obligations. It was
originally set for November 16. Both parties agreed to extend the proposed deadline back in July.  The original proposed deadline was mid-June.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans, meal and soybean oil are mixed, with soybeans and December meal lower and soybean oil higher in the nearby positions. Argentina’s soybean planting pace remains slow. Nearby soybean oil is gaining on December meal.
Malaysian palm oil was up 1.7% on Monday.

·        
China denied it was considering easing its zero-COVID policy. China on Sunday reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months.

·        
China’s soybean imports in October fell 19% to 4.14 million tons from a year earlier. Jan-oct soybean imports stand at 73.18 million tons, down 7.4 percent from year earlier.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero. Malaysia January palm oil futures was up 66 Ringgit to 4,433 and cash was up $10.00/ton to $1002.50/ton.

·        
Indonesia looks to import 350,000 tons of soybeans but details are lacking. They are currently in negotiations for 50,000 tons.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was up 66 Ringgit to 4,433 and cash was up $10.00/ton to $1002.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were down 0.5%, meal up 0.2%, soybean oil up 0.3% and palm oil slightly lower.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanneled to 10 euros lower from this time Friday morning. SA meal was 1-6.50 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 98 points lower earlier this morning and meal $7.10 short ton
lower.

·        
A poll for October Malaysia palm oil stocks calls for a 9.3% increase from September to 2.53 million tons and production to increase 3 percent to 1.82 million. Trade estimates are above.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 11.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on light technical selling, but losses are limited from a pickup in global import tenders and uncertainty over Black Sea shipments. Egypt is in for wheat, and they also see wheat reserves sufficient
for five months.

·        
SovEcon estimated Russia 2022-23 wheat exports at 43.7 million tons, up 300,000 tons from its previous forecast.

·        
Russia’s government bought 46,800 tons of grain for strategic reserves and since August 1, the state purchased 1.420 million tons.

·        
Ukraine exported nearly 14.3 million tons of grain so far in the 2022-23 season, down 30.7% from the 20.6 million tons previous season.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 1.50 euros earlier at 337.75 euros a ton.

·        
We look for a 3-point increase for US winter wheat conditions as more and more states north and east of the problem states of TX, OK and KS get more accurate readings. Rain over the last seven days across KS, TX, and OK should
have also aided crop development.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Egypt is in for wheat and Romania is lowest offered at $356.45/ton fob for LH Dec/FH Jan shipment. Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of US wheat. Details are lacking.

·        
(Reuters) – China sold 40,476 tons of wheat, or 100% of the total offer, at an auction of its state reserves on Nov. 2, the National Grain Trade Center said on Monday. The average selling price of the wheat from the 2014, 2015
and 2016 crops was 2,865 yuan ($398.88) per ton.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on November 8, valid until November 9, for Dec 1-31 shipment.

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Vietnam October rice exports were 713,546 tons, up 22.3 percent from September.