FI Morning Grain Comments 11/08/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
election day. Outcomes may not have any impact for the CBOT markets unless there is a big move in one of the outside markets, such as the USD.

 

Private
exporters reported the following sales (4) activity:

-338,600
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-144,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-138,700
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

USD
was up about 23 points as of 8:06 am CT, WTI crude oil was 75 cents lower and US equities higher.
Most
US agriculture markets are lower. Nearby soybean oil is seeing bull spreading from follow through technical buying. Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 8 points higher earlier this morning and meal $2.40 short ton higher.

 

 

 

 

Weather

US
weather forecast has not changed much. The US Great Plains is a slightly wetter Thursday. Light rain will fall across OK today, and eastern NE, eastern KS, and OK Thursday. The Midwest will see showers across the northwestern area through Friday. Many areas
of Brazil will see rain this week. Argentina should see rain return to western Santa Fe, Cordoba, La Pampa, and western Buenos Aires late Wed-Sat.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 8, 2022

• Subtropical
  Storm Nicole is beginning to transition to tropical storm status and it will likely intensify to hurricane status while moving across the northern Bahamas Wednesday and nearing the Florida coast Wednesday night
• Landfall
  is likely near Fort Pierce, Florida early Thursday morning
• The
  storm will move from Fort Pierce to Cedar Key, Florida Thursday and then to Valdosta, Ga Thursday night into Friday before moving up through the Carolinas thereafter
• Some
  citrus fruit droppage is possible and cotton fiber quality may be compromised, but very little loss to cotton or sugarcane is expected and citrus fruit droppage in Florida should be low
  
• Tropical
  Storm force wind will occur firm Georgia to southern Florida staring Wednesday and continuing Thursday
  
• West-central
  U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue too dry for the best establishment and very little is expected over the next two weeks
• A
  rain and snowstorm will impact the upper U.S. Midwest and a part of the northern U.S. Plains Wednesday night into Friday morning will produce some significant moisture and snowfall
• Snow
  fall of 6 to 12 inches and local totals to 15 inches will be possible from North Dakota through northern Minnesota to southwestern Ontario, Canada
• Moisture
  totals will vary from 0.50 to 2.00 inches with significant rainfall in Minnesota and a part of Wisconsin
  
• Net
  drying is likely in the heart of the Midwest and Delta over this first week of the outlook
• A
  disturbance may bring rain to the lower Delta and interior southeastern states during mid-week next week and into the following weekend, but confidence is low on its significance
• Significant
  moisture will continue to fall in California’s Sierra Nevada today into Wednesday that will begin to improve mountain snowpack
• Rain
  in the central valleys of California will be light, but some moisture will fall
• South
  America weather will trend wetter late this week through next week with many areas in Argentina and Brazil getting rain
• Europe
  and western Asia will be warmer than usual for much of the coming two weeks
  
• Precipitation
  in Europe and the western Asia will be restricted over the next couple of weeks, although it will not be totally dry
• China
  will get rain in wheat areas of the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain later this week and into the weekend
  
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin rapeseed region will stay drier than usual into early next week with some potential for rain later next week
  
• South
  Africa will get periodic rain in its summer crop areas
• Australia
  is expecting rain again late this week and into the weekend with some scattered showers expected between now and then
• Recent
  drying has improved winter crops and field conditions and the environment for summer crop planting is improving for well drained and higher elevated areas.
• More
  drying is needed

Source:
World Weather INC

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 8:

• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates 2022 crop production estimates
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Wednesday,
Nov. 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans

Thursday,
Nov. 10:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica

Friday,
Nov. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• DELAYED:
  CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, usually released Fridays, will be published Monday, Nov. 14
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  US, France, Canada

Saturday,
Nov. 12:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 1

Sunday,
Nov 13:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 2

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due
out November 9

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
180,991                 versus   200000-450000  range

Corn                     
231,458                 versus   300000-600000  range

Soybeans           
2,591,127             versus   1500000-2500000             range

 

USDA
released 2023 budget projections.  https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/baseline

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are trending lower on follow through technical buying. US export developments have been light so far this week and inspections were poor. US harvest for corn and soybeans should be completed sometime over the next
two weeks.

·        
Look for positioning today ahead of the USDA report on Wednesday.

·        
USDA reported US corn harvest progress at 87 percent, up 11 points from the previous week and 1 point above expectations.

·        
USDA Baseline: Corn 1712 million bushels for 2023-22 US ending stocks.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Under the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported 338,600 tons of corn sold to Mexico for 2022-23 delivery.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are higher in the expiring November position and lower for the back months. Follow through selling after China confirmed they are not easing Covid-19 rules was seen. Many think China imports of vegetable oil and
soybeans will remain slow, but China did buy soybeans overnight. Meal is slightly lower. Soybean oil is mixed with bulls spreading in focus.

·        
USDA reported 24-H export sales to Mexico, China and unknown.

·        
China reported 7,691 new COVID-19 infections on Nov. 7, of which 890 were symptomatic and 6,801 were asymptomatic. (Reuters)

·        
USDA reported US soybean harvest progress at 94 percent, up 6 points from the previous week and at trade expectations.

·        
A majority of the US will turn colder (below normal) for the second week of the forecast.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was down 72 Ringgit to 4,361 and cash was down $12.50/ton to $990/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were down 0.4%, meal up 1.2%, soybean oil down 0.7% and palm oil slightly higher.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were 5-45 euros lower from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was unchanged to 3 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 8 points higher earlier this morning and meal $2.40 short ton
higher.

·        
A poll for October Malaysia palm oil stocks calls for a 9.3% increase from September to 2.53 million tons and production to increase 3 percent to 1.82 million. Trade estimates are above.

·        
USDA Baseline: 226 million bushels for 2023-22 US ending stocks.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/baseline

 

Export
Developments

·        
Under the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported 138,700 tons of soybeans to China for 2022-23, 132,000 tons of 2022-23 soybeans sold to unknown destinations and 144,000 tons of soybeans sold to Mexico for 2022-23. USDA also
reported 338,600 tons of corn sold to Mexico.

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 11.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mostly lower after USDA reported a 2-point improvement in US winter wheat conditions. At 30 percent, they were one point below a Reuters trade estimate, but well below 45 percent last year and 51 percent average. 

·        
TX improved 10 points, OK was up 3 and KS up 2.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 0.75 euro earlier at 335.25 euros a ton.

·        
Ukraine 2022-23 winter grain plantings reached 90 percent at 4.3 million hectares as of November 7, including 3.6 million hectares of wheat. Area is down from last year. 6.09 million hectares of winter wheat were planted at this
time a year ago.

·        
USDA Baseline: 663 million bushels for 2023-22 US ending stocks.

·        
The upper US will see snow later this week.

 

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Results awaited: Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on November 8, valid until November 9, for Dec 1-31 shipment.

·        
Japan is in for 94,603 tons of wheat later this week for arrival by February 28.

·        
Yesterday Egypt was in for wheat and Russia was the lowest offer at $369.95/ton C&F (previous Romania $356.45/ton FOB) for LH Dec/FH Jan shipment. They ended up cancelling.

·        
Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of US wheat. Details are lacking.

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported