FI Morning Grain Comments 11/09/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

We
are seeing a widespread internet outage across the US but unsure if this will affect major operations, including USDA services.  Grains and the soybean complex are mostly higher on technical buying.  There were a few new import tender announcements.  USDA
due out at 11 am. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 9, 2021

•  Australia’s
  wet biased weather will end late this week and will be followed by improved weather this weekend into next week.
  
• That
  will reduce concern over winter crop quality and help improve crop maturation and harvest progress.
  
• South
  America’s weather has not changed much today with timely rainfall expected in most of the production areas, although rain amounts are expected to be a little lighter than usual in portions of eastern Argentina and Southern Brazil.
  
• This
  drier bias is not likely to be great enough to have much influence on the market today.
  
• Two
  storms will impact the U.S. northern Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states through the weekend slowing fieldwork and producing some travel delays and a little livestock stress.
  
• One
  storm is expected Wednesday into Friday and the other will occur this weekend.
  
• China’s
  big snowstorm is winding down today with drier biased weather expected in the northeast into next week starting later this week
• Other
  areas in China will experience dry biased conditions over the next full week to possibly ten days
• Southern
  India will be facing a tropical cyclone Wednesday into Thursday with heavy rain and strong wind speeds possible.
  
• Europe
  weather will be relatively tranquil
• Only
  light amounts of precipitation will impact portions of Ukraine and Russia’s Volga River Basin during the next couple of weeks.
  
• South
  Africa rainfall will be a little erratic and light in the east while western summer crop areas are left mostly dry for the next ten days. 
• Coastal
  areas of central Vietnam will turn excessively wet over coming week resulting in new flooding and possible property damage

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• France
  agriculture ministry crop production estimates
• U.S.
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am

Wednesday,
Nov. 10:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Vietnam’s
  customs department publishes October commodity trade data
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on October output, exports and stockpiles, 12:30pm Kuala Lumpur
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-10 palm oil export numbers by cargo surveyors
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report

Thursday,
Nov. 11:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans (tentative)
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  France

Friday,
Nov. 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat         
231,854         versus   150000-400000  range

Corn             
563,163         versus   550000-1000000                range

Soybeans   
2,646,892     versus   1100000-2515000             range

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher on technical buying and higher wheat.  Corn was down five consecutive days.  Yesterday’s harvest report came in slightly below expectations but favorable weather this week should advance progress.

·        
China issued its monthly S&D’s and they left the corn balance largely unchanged.  They did raise old crop corn imports by 3.56 million tons to 29.56 million.  USDA may adjust their China corn imports (currently 28MMT) thus reducing
global inventories.  China in its monthly update took old crop soybean imports up by 1.2 million tons to 99.78, in line with other trade estimates.  New crop corn and soybean S&D’s (2021-22) were left unchanged. 

·        
Later this morning USDA is due out with their S&D’s.  We don’t look for any fireworks but do see USDA increasing corn for ethanol use by about 50 million bushels. 

·        
Germany reported another case of bird flu on another farm in the northeast. 

·        
Today is the third day if the Goldman roll.

·        
US corn harvest progress was up 10 points last week to 84 percent after dry weather occurred across the heart of the Midwest.   Trade was looking for 85 percent.  This compares to 90 year ago and 78 average.   

·        
Look for positioning ahead of the USDA report due out later today.  Some traders are looking for USDA to slightly increase the yield and also demand (exports and/or ethanol).  We are leaning towards a higher corn for ethanol use. 

·        
Export developments are quiet.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of November 04, 2021 were 563,163 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 671,085 tons previous week and compares to 692,565 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 318,473
tons, Japan for 134,244 tons, and El Salvador for 49,586 tons.

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  seeks 325,000 tons of corn on November 15 for shipment sought between Dec. 20 and Jan. 20.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybean
complex was mixed earlier this morning, now mostly higher  Meal is catching a bid on product spreading.  January soybeans fell to their lowest level since March 31 on Monday. 

·        
Malaysian palm was down 103 ringgit (5-week low) and cash palm fell $15/ton. 

·        
China futures were mixed (soybeans and vegetable oils lower and meal higher). 

·        
China issued its monthly S&D’s and they left the corn balance unchanged and raised soybean imports by 1.2 million tons to nearly 100 million tons, in line with other trade estimates. 

·        
US soybean harvest was 87% complete.  Trade was looking for 89 percent.  This compares to 91 year ago and 88 average.

·        
Russia set its export tax for sunflower oil at $276.7 per ton for December, up from $194.5 per toe in November.  The December tax is based on an indicative price of $1,395.4 per ton (Reuters). 

·        
Malaysia

·        
Rotterdam meal values were unchanged to 2 euros higher and vegetable oils unchanged to 15 euros higher. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil about 52 points higher and meal $2.20 short ton higher. 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.57/bu (2.52 previous), compared to $2.30 at the end of last week and compares to $0.85 a year ago.

·        
China

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of November 04, 2021 were 2,646,892 tons, above a range of trade expectations, above 2,607,534 tons previous week and compares to 2,852,420 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,807,727 tons, Egypt for 119,019 tons, and Bangladesh for 113,180 tons.

 

Export
Developments

• South
  Korea is in for 115,000 tons of GMO-free soybeans on November 17 for arrival in South Korea in 2023. 
  
• Egypt
  announced they seek vegetable oils for Jan 5-25 arrival. 

 

Wheat

·        
MN is leading KC and Chicago wheat higher on talk of tight global high protein wheat supplies and another fresh round of import tender announcements. 

·        
Paris December wheat was up 0.50 euros by around 7:30 am CT at 284.25/ton.

·        
US winter wheat was rated 45% good/excellent condition, unchanged from 45% a week earlier. The trade was looking for 46%.  Estimates ranged from 45% to 47% good-to-excellent.  By class there was not much change from the previous
week. 

·        
US winter wheat planting were reported at 91% complete, up from 87% the previous week.  The trade was looking for 93%.  This compares to 92 year ago and 91 average. 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of November 04, 2021 were 231,854 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 130,721 tons previous week and compares to 304,239 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for
95,912 tons, Thailand for 36,520 tons, and Colombia for 32,703 tons.

·        
Egypt approved Latvian wheat imports.  The two countries seek to increase agriculture trade, including to other Balkan countries. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of animal feed barley on Nov. 10 for shipment combinations of March 1-15, March 16-31, April 1-15 and April 16-30. 

·        
Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of wheat and 75,000 tons of barley on November 10. 
The
wheat is sought for shipment between Dec. 1, 2021 and Jan. 15, 2022.  The barley is sought for shipment between Dec. 15, 2021 and Jan. 20, 2022.

·        
The Philippines bought 50,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia late last week at about $365 a ton c&f for shipment between December 2021 and January 2022. 

·        
Japan seeks 157,987 tons of food wheat this week from the US, Canada, and Australia. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported