FI Morning Grain Comments 11/09/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Thin
volume in US CBOT agriculture markets. Soybeans, corn and wheat are lower from a higher USD and positioning ahead of the USDA report. Meal is gaining on soybean oil. Palm oil traded sharply lower overnight. WTI crude oil is down about $0.47 and US equities
lower.  Offshore
values this morning were leading soybean oil 97 points higher earlier this morning and meal $0.80 short ton lower. China’s month CASDE (S&D) offered no surprises. Conab increased Brazil 2022-23 soybean production and trimmed corn output. Malaysia MPOB October
S&D is due out later this evening CT. A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 1,000 thousand to 1039k (1022-11055 range) from the previous week and stocks up 25,000 barrels to 22.257 million.

 

 

 

Weather

Tropical
storm Nicole intensified over the last day and is expected to hit the Bahamas today and Florida Thursday morning.

 

The
US central and lower Great Plains will see net drying this weekend. Light rain fell in the southern areas yesterday and parts of eastern NE, eastern KS, and OK will see rain Thursday into Friday. The Midwest will see showers across the northwestern areas through
Thursday and eastern areas Friday. Many areas of Brazil will see rain this week. Argentina should see rain return to western Santa Fe, Cordoba, La Pampa, and western Buenos Aires today through Sunday.

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 9, 2022

• Tropical
  Storm Nicole will impact the northern Bahamas today and then reach the U.S. Florida east coast south of the Fort Pierce area tonight and early Thursday
  
• The
  storm will move from Fort Pierce to Cedar Key, Florida Thursday and then to the west of Valdosta, Ga Thursday night into Friday before moving up through the Carolinas thereafter
• Some
  citrus fruit droppage is possible and cotton fiber quality may be compromised, but very little loss to cotton or sugarcane is expected and citrus fruit droppage in Florida should be low
  
• Tropical
  Storm force wind will occur from Georgia to southern Florida staring today and continuing Thursday into early Friday
• West-central
  U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue too dry for the best establishment and very little change is expected over the next two weeks
• A
  rain and snowstorm will impact the upper U.S. Midwest and a part of the northern U.S. Plains tonight into Friday with some significant moisture and snowfall expected
• Snow
  fall of 6 to 12 inches and local totals to 15 inches will be possible from North Dakota through northern Minnesota to southwestern Ontario, Canada
• Moisture
  totals will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches with significant rainfall in Minnesota and a part of Wisconsin
  
• Net
  drying is likely in the heart of the Midwest and Delta over this first week of the outlook
• A
  disturbance may bring rain to the lower Delta and interior southeastern states during mid-week next week and into the following weekend, but confidence is low on its significance
• Significant
  moisture will continue to fall in California’s Sierra Nevada today improving mountain snowpack
• Rain
  in the central valleys of California Tuesday and that expected today will be light, but all of it will be welcome
• South
  America weather will trend wetter late this week through next week with many areas in Argentina and Brazil getting rain
• The
  following week will be much drier again, especially in Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Paraguay
• Europe
  and western Asia will be warmer than usual for the next ten days
• Precipitation
  in Europe and the western Asia will light over the next couple of weeks with far western Europe getting the most significant moisture (including France and the U.K. primarily)
• China
  will get rain in wheat areas of the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over the next several days
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin rapeseed region will stay drier than usual through the weekend with some potential for rain next week
  
• South
  Africa will get periodic rain in its summer crop areas
• Australia
  is expecting rain again late this week and into the weekend with some scattered showers expected between now and then
• Recent
  drying has improved winter crops and field conditions and the environment for summer crop planting is improving for well drained and higher elevated areas as well.
• More
  drying is needed

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Nov. 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• France
  AgriMer monthly grains outlook
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans

Thursday,
Nov. 10:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica

Friday,
Nov. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• DELAYED:
  CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, usually released Fridays, will be published Monday, Nov. 14
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  US, France, Canada

Saturday,
Nov. 12:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 1

Sunday,
Nov 13:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 2

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
MBA Mortgage Applications Nov 4: -0.1% (prev -0.5%)

US
MBA 30 Year Mortgage Rate Nov 4: 7.14% (prev 7.06%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are lower on position ahead of USDA and a sharply higher USD. South Korea bought SA corn, passing on US.

·        
Conab in its monthly update lowered their projection for the Brazil corn production by 0.5 million tons to 126.4 million and was 1.3 million below a Bloomberg survey and 13.6 million tons above 2021-22. The 2022-23 area for soybeans
went up 350,000 hectares and corn down 82,000 hectares.

·        
China in its monthly CASDE update left its 2022-23 corn and soybean balances unchanged.

·        
Look for positioning today ahead of the USDA report.

·        
US CPI inflation data will be released on Thursday. 

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 1,000 thousand to 1039k (1022-11055 range) from the previous week and stocks up 25,000 barrels to 22.257 million.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65,000 tons of corn from Brazil at an estimated 192.69 cents a bushel c&f over the March contract for Jan 8-27 shipment.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are mostly lower in a thin trade. SA weather improves and USD is higher. Meal is gaining on soybean oil after palm oil futures traded lower overnight. WTI crude oil is lower.

·        
Conab in its monthly update increased their outlook for 2022-23 Brazil soybean production by 1.2 million tons to 153.54 million, a record, 1.2 million above an average trade guess and 28 million above an unchanged 2021-22. The
2022-23 area for soybeans went up 350,000 hectares and corn down 82,000 hectares.

·        
China in its monthly CASDE update left its 2022-23 soybean balance unchanged, lowered sugar production by 30,000 tons and lowered edible vegetable oil production by 40,000 tons from October to 29.21 million tons, 1.66 million
above 2021-22. They raised old crop soybean imports by 0.580MMT to 91.60 million tons and left 2022-23 unchanged at 95.20 million tons. They imported nearly 100 million tons in 2021-22.

·        
There are rumors Argentina may introduce another round of a special soybean dollar. One source referenced rates between 215 and 220. This might occur late next month.
https://www.iprofesional.com/economia/372448-sergio-massa-instrumentaria-un-nuevo-dolar-soja

·        
A majority of the US will turn colder (below normal) for the second week of the forecast. Much of the upper US will see temperatures dip below freezing.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero.

·        
Malaysia MPOB October S&D is due out later this evening CT. A poll for October Malaysia palm oil stocks calls for a 9.3% increase from September to 2.53 million tons and production to increase 3 percent to 1.82 million. Trade
estimates are above.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was down 163 Ringgit to 4,198 and cash was down $27.50/ton to $962.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were up 0.1%, meal slightly lower, soybean oil down 1.6% and palm oil off 1.1%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were 5-45 euros lower from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was unchanged to 3 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 97 points higher earlier this morning and meal $0.80 short ton
lower.

·        
European Union soybean imports so far for the 2022-23 season (July 1-November 6) reached 3.88 million tons versus 4.29 million previous season. EU rapeseed imports were 2.49 million tons compared with 1.76 million tons a year
earlier.  Soybean meal imports were 5.60 million tons, unchanged from last year. Palm oil imports were 1.21 million tons vs. 2.10 million at this time last year.

·        
Argentina soybean sales last week (October 27-Novemeber 2) were 248,000 tons, about half from the comparable week last season. Total sales were 72 percent versus 73 percent year earlier. September sales were 13.3 million tons.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Under the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported 138,700 tons of soybeans to China for 2022-23, 132,000 tons of 2022-23 soybeans sold to unknown destinations and 144,000 tons of soybeans sold to Mexico for 2022-23. USDA also
reported 338,600 tons of corn sold to Mexico.

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 11.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on positioning and lack of fresh news.

·        
Russia is looking to include fertilizer and grain exports in the Black Sea grain deal, where they have seen no progress. Note the deal official ends next week.

·        
Paris December wheat was up 1.25 euro earlier at 331.25 euros a ton.

·        
European Union soft wheat exports so far for the 2022-23 season (July 1-November 6) reached 12.52 million tons versus 11.92 million previous season.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria bought around 510,000 tons of milling wheat for Dec 1-31 shipment. Purchases were reported around $368 a ton c&f.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on November 16 for arrival by February 24.

·        
Japan is in for 94,603 tons of wheat later this week for arrival by February 28.

·        
Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of US wheat. Details are lacking.

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported