FI Morning Grain Comments 11/10/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Under
the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported private exporters reported sales of 209,931 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.  US CPI inflation data was better than expected and this crushed the USD (down 154 points) and
sending US stocks higher. Easing inflation could be an indicator the Feds pivot sometime in 2023 by eventually lowering interest rates but assume another hike this December. Mixed trade in the agriculture markets. Soybeans are under pressure from improving
SA weather and lower meal. Soybean oil is higher despite a 10-day low in Malaysian palm futures. Corn is a little weaker. Export sales were poor for corn, slow but within a trade range for soybeans and wheat. Traders are waiting to see if positive news comes
out of the meeting between the UN and Russia on Friday over the Black Sea grain deal. Wheat is catching a bid after the Rosario grains exchange lowered Argentina’s wheat production estimate to 11.8 million tons from 13.7 million previous. Global grain import
demand is picking up.

 

 

 

Weather

 

Western
NE will see a wintery mix today. Rain will fall across eastern KS, eastern OK today. Eastern TX will see precipitation Friday. KS, OK, and TX has an opportunity for light rain Monday. Other parts of the Great Plains will see net drying. The Midwest will see
showers across the northwestern areas through today and eastern areas Friday. Rain fell across Brazil yesterday, favoring Goias and southern Minas Gerais. Many areas of Brazil will see rain through early next week. Argentina should see rain return to western
Santa Fe, Cordoba, La Pampa, and western Buenos Aires through Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 10, 2022

• Hurricane
  Nicole moved into Florida near Fort Pierce and quickly weakened to tropical storm status and was located 55 miles  east of Tampa, Florida at 0700 EST today
• Some
  citrus fruit droppage was suspected in the northeastern corner of the state’s production region
• Little
  to no sugarcane damage was suspected
• Cotton
  in Georgia and the Carolinas is not likely to be seriously impacted by the storm
• Tropical
  Storm Nicole will move through northwestern portions of Florida’s Peninsula today then turn to the north through the heart of Georgia to the western Carolinas tonight and Friday
  
• West-central
  U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue mostly dry over the next couple of weeks
• Rain
  and a little wet snow may impact areas from the Texas Panhandle across Oklahoma and the remainder of Texas Monday
• A
  rain and snowstorm will impact the upper U.S. Midwest and a part of the far northern U.S. Plains today with some significant moisture and snowfall expected
• Snow
  fall of 6 to 12 inches and local totals to 15 inches will be possible from North Dakota through northern Minnesota to southwestern Ontario, Canada
• Moisture
  totals will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches with significant rainfall in Minnesota and a part of Wisconsin
  
• Net
  drying is likely in the heart of the Midwest over this first week of the outlook
• U.S.
  Delta crop areas will receive showers Friday and a more generalized light rain event early next week
  
• California
  weather will be dry over the next couple of weeks after some beneficial early season rainfall occurred earlier this week
• South
  America weather will trend wetter over the coming week will all crop areas in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay being impacted at one time or another
  
• Argentina
  will be dry again from mid-week next week into the following weekend with some rain in the west-central and northern part of the nation Nov. 20-21
• Center
  west and far southern Brazil will receive the lightest rainfall and will be quick to dry down again while other areas in Brazil continue to receive alternating periods of rain and sunshine
• Western
  and southern Europe will get some rain next week with partial relief from dryness likely in eastern Spain, southern France and the lower Danube River Basin where drought is ongoing
• Relieve
  in the drought areas will only be temporary
• China
  will get rain in wheat areas of the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over the next several days
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin rapeseed region will stay drier than usual through the weekend with some potential for rain next week
  
• South
  Africa will get periodic rain in its summer crop areas
• Australia
  is expecting rain again late this week and into the weekend
• Recent
  drying has improved winter crops and field conditions and the environment for summer crop planting is improving for well drained and higher elevated areas as well.
• More
  drying is needed

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Nov. 10:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica

Friday,
Nov. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• DELAYED:
  CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, usually released Fridays, will be published Monday, Nov. 14
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  US, France, Canada

Saturday,
Nov. 12:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 1

Sunday,
Nov 13:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 2

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

Soybean
export sales slowed from the previous week to 794,800 tons for 2022-23. Sales were primarily for China (927,100 MT, including 594,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 13,000 MT). Meal and soybean oil sales were within expectations but
slow for this time of year. Corn export sales were below expectations at only 265,300 tons and crop year to date commitments are running 54 percent below this time last year. All wheat sales of 322,500 tons were within expectations.

 

 

 

Macros

US
CPI (M/M) Oct: 0.4% (est 0.6%; prev 0.4%)

US
CPI Core (M/M) Oct: 0.3% (est 0.5%; prev 0.6%)

US
CPI (Y/Y) Oct: 7.7% (est 7.9%; prev 8.2%)

US
CPI Core (Y/Y) Oct: 6.3% (est 6.5%; prev 6.6%)

US
CPI Index NSA Oct: 298.012 (est 298.488; prev 296.808)

US
CPI Core Index SA Oct: 299.471 (est 300.094; prev 298.660)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Nov 5: 225K (est 220K; prevR 218K)

US
Continuing Claims Oct 29: 1493K (est 1487K; prevR 1487K)

US
Real Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Oct: -2.8% (prev -3.0%)

US
Real Avg Weekly Earnings (Y/Y) Oct: -3.7% (prev -3.8%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are slightly lower post US economic data and poor USDA export sales which came in below expectations. 

·        
US CPI inflation data was better than expected and this crushed the USD and sending US stocks higher.  

·        
The US EPA sent their RFS 2023 and beyond, biofuel proposal to the Office of Management and Budget. November 30 is the decision deadline.

·        
US weekly EIA ethanol production for the week ending November 4 increased 11,000 barrels to 1.051 million, up 6 consecutive weeks, and highest since January 14^th, 2022. Ethanol stocks declined 40,000 barrels to 22.192
million.

 

Export
developments.

·        
Under the 24-hour announcement system, USDA reported private exporters reported sales of 209,931 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.

·        
South Korea’s MFG bought 134,000 tons of corn at $333.33/ton c&f and 175 cents c&f over the March contract, for arrival around Feb. 25.

·        
South Korea’s FLC bought 60,000 tons of corn at $328.99/ton c&f for shipment between Nov. 25 and Dec. 25.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower, meal weaker, and soybean oil higher. US domestic demand for soybean oil remains robust. South America’s weather pattern improves through early next week with Argentina and most of Brazil getting rain.
Rumors of Argentina rolling out another “soybean dollar” late next month slowed producer sales yesterday ahead of what we could see as another surge in producer selling sometime by the end of the year.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero. Registrations are down 44 to 291 lots.

·        
Malaysia MPOB October palm oil stocks rose to 2.404 million tons, highest since April 2020, but 126,400 tons below a Reuters trade guess. Palm oil production was 1.814 million tons, up for the 4^th consecutive month
and slightly below a Reuters trade guess. Imports fell below expectations and were down sharply from the previous month. Exports were 1.504 million tons, slightly above a trade guess, 81,000 above the previous month and 5 percent above year ago.

 

 

·        
Cargo surveyor SGS reported month to date November 10 Malaysian palm exports at 408,867 tons, 47,265 tons above the same period a month ago or up 13.1%, and 154,226 tons below the same period a year ago or down 27.4%.

·        
Cargo surveyor AmSpec reported Malaysian November 1-10 palm exports at 420,477 tons, compared to 373,030 tons month earlier or up 12.7%.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was down 20 Ringgit to 4,178 and cash was down $5.00/ton to $957.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were up 1.8%, meal up 0.9, soybean oil down 1.3% and palm oil off 1.8%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were mostly unchanged from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was 3-6 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 105 points lower earlier this morning and meal $0.50 short ton
higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Egypt’s lowest offer for sunflower oil was $1,490 per ton c&f for 6,000 tons and for soybean oil $1,641 per ton c&f for 10,000, 14,000 and 24,000 tons, respectively. They are seeking arrival between Dec. 20 & Jan. 5, and 180-day
letters of credit.

·        
 China
plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 11.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mostly higher from positive USD economic data weighing on the USD.

·        
The Rosario Grain exchange put the Argentine wheat production at only 11.8MM tons vs USDA estimate e of 15.5MM. We think USDA is at least 2 million tons too high.

·        
Paris December wheat was up 1.00 euros earlier at 329.75 euros a ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia seeks 595,000 tons of wheat on November 11 with results expected November 14 for arrival between April and June.

·        
Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of soft wheat, 100,000 tons of durum, and 75,000 tons of barley, all on November 11 for shipment between Dec. 5, 2022, and Jan. 25.

·        
Japan was in for 94,603 tons of wheat this for arrival by February 28. Original tender details as follows:

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on November 16 for arrival by February 24.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

USDA export sales highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 28-November 3, 2022.

Wheat:
Net sales of 322,500 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (77,500 MT), South Korea (63,000 MT), Japan (60,600 MT), Thailand (55,800 MT), and Spain (20,000 MT – late), were offset by reductions for Colombia (500 MT) and Ecuador
(100 MT).  Exports of 151,500 MT were primarily to the Philippines (65,000 MT), Japan (38,000 MT), Mexico (18,100 MT), Ecuador (10,000 MT), and Colombia (9,500 MT). 

Late
Reporting:
For 2022/2023, net sales totaling 20,000 MT of hard red spring wheat were reported late for Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 265,300 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Mexico (157,500 MT, including decreases of 60,700 MT), Canada (48,800 MT, including decreases of 2,600 MT), Guatemala (29,500 MT), El Salvador (18,500 MT, including decreases of 14,000 MT), and unknown destinations
(11,100 MT), were offset by reductions for Honduras (24,200 MT) and Japan (1,500 MT).  Exports of 259,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (214,500 MT), Canada (15,600 MT), Nicaragua (7,800 MT), El Salvador (7,000 MT), and Honduras (5,500 MT).

Export
Adjustments: Accumulated
exports of corn to Japan were adjusted down 3,000 for week ending October 6^th. This shipment was reported in error.

Barley: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week. 

Sorghum: 
Total net sales of 30,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for Sudan.  Exports of 2,400 MT were to Mexico.

Rice:
 Net
sales of 37,500 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for Canada (17,700 MT), the United Kingdom (10,400 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Guatemala (900 MT), and El Salvador (500 MT).  Exports of 33,400 MT were primarily to Haiti (22,100 MT),
Mexico (3,700 MT), Canada (2,700 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), and Jordan (700 MT).

Export
Adjustments: Accumulated
exports of long grain milled rice to the Dominican Republic were adjusted down 78,274 for week ending October 27^th.  This shipment was reported in error.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 794,800 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for China (927,100 MT, including 594,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 13,000 MT), Japan (164,700 MT, including 102,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (124,600 MT, including decreases of 2,500 MT), the Netherlands (90,400 MT, including 84,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), and Turkey (80,700 MT, including 65,000 MT
switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (767,000 MT).  Exports of 2,752,300 MT were primarily to China (1,968,200 MT), Mexico (254,900 MT), Japan (107,400 MT), the Netherlands (90,400 MT), and Spain
(70,800 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales:
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 300 MT, all South Korea.

Export
for Own Account:
For 2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 22,500 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 170,200 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Morocco (54,000 MT), Japan (50,400 MT), Ecuador (27,300 MT, including 2,500 MT switched from Colombia and decreases of 300 MT), Canada (22,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Mexico (14,500 MT, including
decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (60,000 MT).  Total net sales reductions of 200 MT for 2023/2024 were for Canada.  Exports of 165,900 MT were primarily to the Philippines (48,000 MT), Mexico (33,900 MT), Honduras
(19,700 MT), Canada (17,300 MT), and Nicaragua (14,200 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Total net sales of 2,700 MT for 2022/2023 were for Canada.  Exports of 1,400 MT were to Canada.

Cotton: 
Net
sales of 145,800 RB for 2022/2023 primarily for China (57,300 RB), Pakistan (40,500 RB), Vietnam (23,400 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from Taiwan), Indonesia (8,100 RB), and Bangladesh (7,500 RB), were offset by reductions for Taiwan (1,100 RB).  Net sales
of 11,400 RB for 2023/2024 were reported for Turkey (6,600 RB) and Pakistan (4,800 RB).  Exports of 108,100 RB were primarily to China (36,800 RB), Bangladesh (16,200 RB), Mexico (15,300 RB), Pakistan (13,500 RB), and Turkey (8,700 RB).  Net sales of Pima
totaling 600 RB were reported for Djibouti (400 RB), China (100 RB), and Indonesia (100 RB).  Exports of 3,400 RB were to Peru (2,000 RB), Greece (900 RB), India (400 RB), and China (100 RB).  

Optional
Origin Sales:
For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 9,300 RB, all Malaysia.

Export
for Own Account:
For 2022/2023, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 63,900 RB are for China (37,600 RB), Vietnam (23,900 RB), India (1,500 RB), Pakistan (500 RB), and Indonesia (400 RB).  

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 506,900 pieces for 2022 primarily for China (315,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 13,000 pieces), Mexico (83,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces), South Korea (48,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases
of 400 pieces), Brazil (36,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 300 pieces), and Turkey (10,700 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions for Thailand (1,700 pieces), Vietnam (200 pieces), and Canada (100 pieces).  Net sales of 89,700 pieces
for 2023 were reported for China (37,300 whole cattle hides), Thailand (28,000 whole cattle hides), Mexico (12,600 whole cattle hides), Indonesia (7,700 whole cattle hides), and Taiwan (4,100 whole cattle hides).  In addition, net sales of 1,300 kip skins
resulting increases for Belgium (1,400 kip skins), were offset by reductions for Canada (100 kip skins).  Exports of 491,100 whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (298,600 pieces), Mexico (91,600 pieces), Thailand (42,300 pieces), South Korea
(32,100 pieces), and Brazil (7,000 pieces).  In addition, exports of 1,300 kip skins were to Canada.

Net
sales of 254,700 wet blues for 2022 reported for Thailand (262,700 unsplit), China (6,400 unsplit), Vietnam (4,000 unsplit), Japan (3,200 grain splits), and Mexico (2,100 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Italy (23,600 unsplit) and Taiwan (100 unsplit). 
Total net sales of 29,900 wet blues for 2023 were for Italy.  Exports of 130,000 wet blues were primarily to China (43,000 unsplit), Italy (33,800 unsplit and 1,800 grain splits), Thailand (23,900 unsplit), Vietnam (19,200 unsplit), and South Korea (2,700
grain splits).  Total net sales reductions of 600 splits were for South Korea.  No exports were reported for the week.

Beef: 
Net sales of 13,700 MT for 2022 primarily for South Korea (7,100 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (4,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (800 MT), and Canada (700 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for China (2,600 MT) and Vietnam (100 MT).  Net sales of 700 MT for 2023 were reported for South Korea (300 MT), Japan (300 MT), and Canada (100 MT).  Exports of 18,100 MT were primarily to
Japan (5,300 MT), South Korea (5,100 MT), China (2,600 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 10,800 MT for 2022 primarily for Mexico (9,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT),
the Dominican Republic (900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Colombia (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Australia (3,500 MT), Japan (2,300 MT), and Canada (900 MT). 
Net sales of 700 MT for 2023 were reported for South Korea (600 MT) and Australia (100 MT). 
Exports of 28,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (13,500 MT), China (3,900 MT), Japan (3,000 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,500 MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  11/3/2022

 

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	117.6	873.6	1,853.9	21.7	2,596.9	3,365.9	0.0	6.3
SRW	14.0	502.5	533.2	19.6	1,676.5	1,382.9	0.0	6.6
HRS	77.3	1,157.9	1,141.7	4.5	2,536.9	2,467.8	0.0	10.8
WHITE	113.7	931.7	748.3	105.7	2,078.7	1,650.4	0.0	0.3
DURUM	0.0	61.7	52.4	0.0	77.7	77.3	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	322.5	3,527.3	4,329.6	151.5	8,966.6	8,944.3	0.0	24.0
BARLEY	0.0	10.1	22.8	0.0	3.9	7.3	0.0	0.0
CORN	265.3	10,327.6	25,464.2	259.4	4,402.1	6,611.5	0.0	311.0
SORGHUM	30.0	307.4	2,929.1	2.4	46.5	349.4	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	794.8	20,449.6	19,010.4	2,752.3	12,643.0	14,213.0	0.0	0.0
SOY MEAL	170.2	3,320.9	3,881.6	165.9	819.3	1,079.3	-0.2	2.0
SOY OIL	2.7	24.7	117.1	1.4	7.6	27.2	0.0	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	1.4	72.3	216.1	2.1	117.3	324.3	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	10.7	6.8	0.1	7.4	2.3	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	2.8	7.9	9.5	0.8	4.9	16.5	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.0	4.6	68.5	0.2	3.1	14.4	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	25.5	114.2	91.3	26.0	170.3	221.7	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	7.7	48.5	79.5	4.1	80.2	100.0	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	37.5	258.1	471.7	33.4	383.1	679.2	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	145.8	6,001.9	6,490.4	108.1	2,774.0	2,146.4	11.4	1,112.7
PIMA	0.6	80.8	212.1	3.4	23.7	93.8	0.0	0.9