FI Morning Grain Comments 11/11/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
CBOT agriculture commodities are higher after China eased some covid restrictions. China reduced the amount of time that travelers and close contacts of infected people must spend in quarantine. The news spilled over into other commodity markets from metals
to energies. USD is down 136 points and WTI up $2.59. US equities are higher. The UN is currently meeting with Russia in Geneva today over Black Sea grain deal. Palm oil futures ended a 3-day losing streak. Offshore values this morning were leading soybean
oil 142 points higher (44 higher for the week to date) earlier this morning and meal $10.90 higher ($5.90 short ton higher for the week). Many US government offices are closed today to observe Veteran’s Day. CFTC commitment of traders data will be out Monday.

 

 

 

Weather

Western
NE and north central OK saw rain yesterday. Eastern TX, and eastern TX will see precipitation today. KS, OK, and TX has an opportunity for light rain Monday. Other parts of the Great Plains will see net drying. The Midwest will see showers across the northwestern
areas through today. Many areas of Brazil will see rain through early next week. Argentina saw less than expected rain yesterday. Argentina should see widespread rain through Sunday, then again late next week.

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 11, 2022

• Rain
  has begun to increase in western Argentina today and it will expand to the north and east through Saturday and Sunday, although eastern Argentina will not be as wet as San Luis, La Pampa, southwestern Cordoba or the southwestern two-thirds of Buenos Aires
  where 1.00 to nearly 3.00 inches will be possible
• Argentina
  will trend drier Monday with no other precipitation until late next week and in the following weekend when scattered showers return
• All
  of Brazil will get some rain during the coming week to ten days, although center west and southern parts of the nation will be drying down again during mid- to late-week next week that could last into the following weekend
• Sufficient
  rain will fall to support crops, though
• Additional
  timely rain will be needed for some center west and far southern crop areas even though rain will fall in most areas
• Northern
  U.S. Plains snow event left behind 24 inches of accumulation at Bismarck and 16-22 inches in immediate surrounding areas while 7 to 16 inches occurred to the northeast through northeastern North Dakota. Amounts in northwestern Minnesota had reached 9 inches
  overnight, but not all storm totals were not available yet this morning in that region
• Rain
  and snow will evolve in the Texas Panhandle and a part of West Texas Sunday into Monday of next week before moving through the Delta and Midwest during the first half of next week
  
• A
  band of 1 to 6-inch snowfall will be possible from Oklahoma to central and southern Illinois and part of Indiana
• U.S.
  Delta will get light rain today and greater moisture Monday night and Tuesday with more than 1.25 inches resulting
• Tropical
  Storm Nicole was diminished to a depression overnight and was responsible for waves of rain in the southeastern United States Thursday into this morning
• No
  crop damage was suspected Thursday after the storm passed through east-central Florida where some citrus fruit droppage likely occurred
• Additional
  rain will impact the southeastern states this weekend and again during mid-week next week to maintain wetter biased conditions
• U.S.
  central Plains will continue to miss significant precipitation events over the next two weeks
• Limited
  precipitation is expected in the far western United States over the coming week
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin is still advertised to get much needed rain next week to improve rapeseed planting and establishment
• China’s
  North China Plain and Yellow River Basin is getting moisture today and Saturday to improve wheat establishment
  
• Europe
  will be dry through the weekend and then rain will move from west to east across the continent next week bringing some relief to dryness in the lower Danube River Basin, eastern Spain and southern France
• Weekend
  Rain is still expected in eastern Australia with some follow up moisture late next week and into the following weekend, although it should be light

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Nov. 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• DELAYED:
  CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, usually released Fridays, will be published Monday, Nov. 14
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• HOLIDAY:
  US, France, Canada

Saturday,
Nov. 12:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 1

Sunday,
Nov 13:

• Atlantic
  Council Global Food Security Forum, Bali, day 2

Monday,
Nov. 14:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn, soy and cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options (delayed release as Friday was a holiday)
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council’s Internet Seminar, through Nov. 18

Tuesday,
Nov. 15:

• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket, Thailand – day 1
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 1
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-15 palm oil export data
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Forum in Singapore, through Nov. 17
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Nov. 16:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 2
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 2
• Panel
  on global food crisis at Bloomberg New Economy Forum

Thursday,
Nov. 17:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 3
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 3

Friday,
Nov. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of Oct. trade data, including corn, pork, wheat imports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• US
  cattle of feed, 3pm

Sunday,
Nov 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are higher after China eased some covid restrictions. China reduced the amount of time that travelers and close contacts of infected people must spend in quarantine. The news spilled over into other commodity markets
from metals to energies.

·        
South Korea was in for corn. One group bought a cargo, and another passed.

·        
Traders are waiting for headlines over the UN and Russia Black Sea grain shipping deal talks held in Geneva today.

·        
The US EPA sent their RFS 2023 and beyond, biofuel proposal to the Office of Management and Budget. November 30 is the decision deadline.

 

Export
developments.

·        
South Korea’s NOFI group bought 69,000 tons of corn, optional origin, at an estimated $331.90 a ton c&f for arrival around February 20.

·        
South Korea’s KFS passed on 68,000 tons of corn for arrival around February 25. Lowest price offered was $334.00/ton c&f.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are higher after news broke overnight that China will relax on some Covid restrictions. 

·        
The soybean products are higher following soybeans.

·        
CBOT deliveries for November soybeans were zero. Soybean registrations were unchanged at 291.

·        
Palm oil futures ended a 3-day losing streak. Indonesia plans to increase palm export taxes for November 16-30 shipments after setting the crude palm oil reference price to $826.58/ton.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was up 109 Ringgit to 4,287and cash was up $35.00/ton to $992.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were up 0.4%, meal down 0.8%, soybean oil down 0.1% and palm oil up 1.9%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were mostly unchanged from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was 2-7.50 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 142 points higher (44 higher for the week to date) earlier this morning and meal $10.90 higher ($5.90 short ton
higher
for the week).

·        
(Reuters) – Nine Indonesian companies on Friday signed contracts to sell 2.5 million tons of palm oil products valued at $2.6 billion to 13 Chinese buyers.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
Results are awaited on China auctioning off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves today.

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher from another dive in the USD and spillover strength in soybeans.

·        
China domestic wheat prices hit a record high from lack of producer selling. Some producers were sitting on stockpiles waiting for higher prices and Covid controls slowed transportations.

·        
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentina wheat production at 12.4 million tons, down from 14 million tons previous. Rosario the previous day pegged the Argentina wheat crop at 11.8 million tons. USDA is at 15.5 million
tons.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 0.25 euros earlier at 327.00 euros a ton.

·        
Ukraine grain exports since July 1 dropped 30 percent from previous period year ago to 14.6 million tons as of November 9. It included:

5.6
MMT of wheat, down 57% y/y

1.2
MMT of barley, down 74% y/y

7.8
MMT of corn, up 149%

·        
(Interfax) – The export duty on Russian wheat will fall 3% on November 16 to 2,922.1 rubles per ton from 3,012 rubles per ton the week before.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Egypt’s GASC was believed to have bought 280,000 tons of Russian wheat via direct purchases. Lowest offer at the original tender was $369.95/ton c&f for 40,000 tons of Russian wheat. GASC was negotiating for a price of $360 per
to and they may have got $362.50/ton, all for December shipment.

·        
Indonesia flour millers bought Canadian spring wheat and US soft white wheat for January and February shipment. 60,000 tons of Canadian wheat was bought at about $430 a ton c&f and a similar amount of US wheat was purchased at
about $395 a ton c&f.

·        
South Korea’s MFG bought 55,000 tons of Australian feed wheat in a private deal at an estimated $354.70 a ton c&f for March 15-April 15 shipment.

·        
The Philippines passed on 60,000 tons of wheat due to high prices. Shipment was for November 20-March 10, optional origin.

·        
Results awaited: Saudi Arabia seeks 595,000 tons of wheat with results expected November 14 for arrival between April and June.

·        
Results awaited: Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of soft wheat, 100,000 tons of durum, and 75,000 tons of barley, all for shipment between Dec. 5, 2022, and Jan. 25.

·        
Japan bought 94,603 tons of wheat this week for arrival by February 28. Original tender details as follows:

·        
Jordan issued an import tender for 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on November 16 for arrival by February 24.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported