FI Morning Grain Comments 11/12/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

USDA
24-hour: Private exporters reported sales of 256,930 metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year. 

 

USDA
export sales supports the rise in meal prices this morning while other commodities came in within expectations.  Pork and sorghum sales were good.  Crop year to date soybean sales are still lagging well behind year ago. 

 

Today
we are seeing some profit taking after a majority of CBOT ag commodities rallied since late last week driven by US wheat futures.  USD is slightly lower and WTI down $1.20. 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 12, 2021

• Central
  Vietnam coastal areas will receive 5.00 to 15.00 inches of rain with local totals to 20.00 inches by next Wednesday morning.
  
• Flooding
  will impact urban areas more than crop country.
• South
  America weather is expected to remain mostly good for Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay with a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine for at least ten days and probably two weeks.
  
• Eastern
  Australia will see improving weather after today’s rain in the east ends.
• There
  will be some additional rain in Victoria and southeastern New South Wales periodically, but the threat to unharvested winter crop quality should reduce.
  
• Rain
  in Queensland and some unirrigated areas of New South Wales has been great for summer crop planting.
  
• Southern
  India will remain wet into next week with a new tropical cyclone possible along the upper Andhra Pradesh coast late next week.
  
• Southern
  Russia and Ukraine will get some moisture boosting in the second week of the two week outlook.
  
• In
  the meantime, snow cover is expected to expand southward and westward in Russia reaching near the Ukraine border and protecting winter crops that are mostly semi-dormant or dormant.
  
• China’s
  weather will remain be relatively tranquil for a while favoring late season rapeseed and wheat planting in the south.
  
• U.S.
  weather will be mostly mixed over the next ten days allowing late season farming activity to continue.
  
• Hard
  red winter wheat areas will remain dry especially in the west.
• Montana
  may get a little snow and rain infrequently during the next two weeks and the same may be true for the Pacific Northwest.
• Each
  of these areas are dry and dryland wheat ratings are poor. 
• Coffee,
  citrus, sugarcane and cocoa production areas will all experience mostly unchanging conditions through the weekend
• Cotton
  harvest weather in most of the Northern Hemisphere will advance relatively well around brief periods of rain

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Nov. 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
Nov. 15:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  corn, soy and cotton harvested; winter wheat planted, 4pm
• U.S.
  Green Coffee Association releases monthly inventory data
• Singapore
  International Agri-Food Week, day 1
• UBS
  Australasia Virtual Conference, day 1
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-15 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Tuesday,
Nov. 16:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Singapore
  International Agri-Food Week, day 2
• UBS
  Australasia Virtual Conference, day 2
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference, day 1
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
Nov. 17:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Singapore
  International Agri-Food Week, day 3
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference, day 2
• Brazil’s
  Unica releases cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)

Thursday,
Nov. 18:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA
  FAS releases world sugar market balance, trade report, 3pm
• China’s
  trade data, including corn, wheat, sugar and cotton imports
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Singapore
  International Agri-Food Week, day 4
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference, day 3
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Forum: session on Feeding the World at 11:20am Singapore
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Nov. 19:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Saturday,
Nov. 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are
lower on profit taking. 

·        
USDA export sales of 1.067 million tons were within expectations.   

·        
The USD is taking a break from its two-day rally.  WTI is down about $1.20, but off overnight lows. 

·        
Global tender business was quiet overnight. 

·        
China this week also has been an active buyer of Brazil soybeans, Ukrainian corn, and Australian wheat. 

·        
Next week the US and China will hold meetings, mainly over trade and climate issues.  Both countries promised to work out a climate pledge to lower carbon and methane emissions. 

·        
Ukraine corn export commitments have significantly increased.  Ukraine grain exports were 1.8 million tons this week led by 1.05 million tons of corn, with another 1.7 million tons of corn scheduled to be shipped in coming weeks. 

·        
SA plantings are advancing.  Argentina’s BA Grains Exchange reported corn plantings of 31 percent and are lagging year ago but keep in mind the expected area is greater than last year. 

·        
France collected 83 percent of their corn crop as of November 8, up from 73% previous week and below 97% year earlier. 

 

Export
developments.

• Turkey
  seeks 325,000 tons of corn on November 15 for shipment sought between Dec. 20 and Jan. 20.

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybean
complex is mixed with soybeans and meal higher.  Malaysian palm traded 54 ringgit higher and cash was up $15/ton, although CBOT soybean oil is around 37 points lower this morning.  USDA announced 256,930 tons of soybeans to unknow, an amount much lower than
what the trade rumors suggested over the last couple of sessions.  USDA export sales were within expectations for soybean oil and soybeans, and positive for soybean meal.  Global demand for soybean meal has increased over the past month and this ignited a
firm undertone in CBOT soybean meal over the past week. 

·        
Note China this week also has been an active buyer of Brazil soybeans, Ukrainian corn, and Australian wheat. 

·        
Argentina’s BA Grains Exchange reported 19 percent of the soybean crop planted, up from 12% previous week and compares to 18 percent year ago. 

·        
Reuters NOPA survey is predicting US soybean crush at 181.945 in October.  The survey is to be release to subscribers at 1100 CST on Monday.  The NOPA monthly report will no longer include soymeal exports due to inadvertent underreporting.

·        
China soybean futures were up 0.7%, meal 0.5% higher, SBO up 0.3%, and palm up 0.6%.

·        
Malaysia

·        
Rotterdam meal values were 3-13 euros higher and vegetable oils 11-13 euros higher. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil about 55 points higher (159 higher for the week to date) and meal $3.20 short ton higher ($3.20 higher for the week). 

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.66/bu ($2.58 previous), compared to $2.30 at the end of last week and compares to $0.85 a year ago.

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

• USDA:
  256,930 metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations.
  
• South
  Korea is in for 115,000 tons of GMO-free soybeans on November 17 for arrival in South Korea in 2023. 
  

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on profit taking.  US wheat is up 3-4 percent from last Friday’s settles, and we are seeing consolidation after many contracts made 13 and 14 year highs recently. 

·        
December Paris wheat was down 2.00 euros by around 7:55 am CT at 295/ton. 

·        
Global tender business was quiet overnight. 

·        
Russia’s formula for wheat export tax indicates wheat prices will be increasing starting November 17 to $77.10/ton from $69.90/ton, an indication less exportable supplies will be snapped up from the number one global supplier. 

·        
Ukraine wheat exports since the start of the season of 13.1 million tons are running 17 percent above the same period year ago. 

·        
Ukraine’s grain harvest is 91 percent complete at 73.4 million tons.  That includes 32.3 million tons of wheat, 9.6 million tons of barley, 28.1 million tons of corn and small volumes of other grains, according to the AgMin. 

·        
Ukraine could use more rain for winter grain establishment. 

·        
France planted 87% of their soft wheat crop as of November 8 versus 86% year ago.  France is expected to see good weather over the next several days. 

·        
The upper Midwest will see 3-6 inches of snow in far northern Minnesota, northeastern North Dakota and southern Manitoba, Canada.  A small amount to 3 inches will occur in the remainder of North Dakota, southern Minnesota and
northeastern South Dakota and parts of Wisconsin. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 17. 

·        
Bangladesh’s state grains buyer seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on November 22. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin in a SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley for arrival by February 24. 

·        
Results awaited: The UN is in for 110,000 tons of milling wheat for Ethiopia.  40,000 tons was for delivery between Dec. 20, 2021, and Jan. 5, 2022, another 20,000 tons for delivery between Jan. 5–20, 2022, and 50,000 tons also
for delivery between Jan. 5–20, 2022. 

·        
Results awaited: Separate import tender.  Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  11/4/2021

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	59.7	1,853.9	1,600.6	93.0	3,365.9	4,585.3	0.0	0.0
SRW	7.8	533.2	420.9	74.6	1,382.9	944.6	22.5	22.5
HRS	156.6	1,141.7	1,553.8	40.3	2,467.8	3,274.6	0.0	0.0
WHITE	62.6	748.3	1,973.2	42.9	1,650.4	2,161.8	0.0	0.0
DURUM	-0.8	52.4	202.7	19.2	96.5	340.0	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	285.9	4,329.6	5,751.1	270.0	8,963.6	11,306.4	22.5	22.5
BARLEY	0.0	22.8	31.0	0.0	7.3	11.8	0.0	0.0
CORN	1,067.3	25,464.2	26,582.7	718.0	6,611.5	7,584.8	-2.5	334.9
SORGHUM	261.1	2,929.1	3,132.9	80.0	349.4	686.0	0.0	0.0
SOYBEANS	1,289.4	19,010.4	30,111.6	3,701.7	14,283.0	19,720.0	30.0	49.8
SOY MEAL	278.0	3,881.6	3,517.2	166.4	1,079.3	1,099.9	-0.1	36.8
SOY OIL	10.4	117.1	248.8	6.0	27.2	67.2	0.0	0.1
RICE
L G RGH	2.2	216.1	405.7	8.4	324.3	278.7	0.0	0.0
M S RGH	0.0	6.8	20.3	0.0	2.3	8.6	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	1.2	9.5	10.8	0.1	16.5	10.9	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	14.3	68.5	19.7	0.1	14.4	29.9	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	8.2	91.3	96.5	3.2	221.7	117.0	0.0	0.0
M S MLD	17.3	79.5	154.6	5.4	100.0	108.4	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	43.2	471.7	707.6	17.1	679.2	553.5	0.0	0.0
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	128.0	6,490.4	5,611.1	87.9	2,146.4	3,490.9	11.6	868.5
PIMA	6.5	212.1	265.0	9.6	93.8	182.6	0.0	1.8

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 29 – November 4, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 285,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 29 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (152,000 MT), Japan (57,400 MT), Mexico (37,200 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), Italy
(29,200 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT), and Guatemala (24,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (51,800 MT) and Nigeria (30,300 MT).  Total
net sales of 22,500 MT for 2022/2023 were for unknown destinations.  Exports of 270,000 MT were up 98 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (105,900 MT), Thailand (51,100 MT),
Colombia (43,500 MT), Japan (30,900 MT), and Italy (19,200 MT).

Corn: 
Net sales of 1,067,300 MT for 2021/2022 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Canada (357,600 MT), Colombia (304,600 MT, including 19,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and
decreases of 38,800 MT), Mexico (272,200 MT, including decreases of 48,700 MT), Japan (151,100 MT, including 93,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 56,800 MT), and the Dominican Republic (11,500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily
for unknown destinations (45,600 MT) and Costa Rica (13,700 MT).  Total net sales reductions for 2022/2023 of 2,500 MT were for Canada.  Exports of 718,000 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to Mexico (313,700 MT), Japan (182,900 MT), Colombia (91,600 MT), Honduras (52,100 MT), and Canada (42,900 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, options were exercised to export 65,000 MT to South Korea from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 443,300 MT is for unknown destinations (379,000 MT), Italy (55,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).

Barley: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week. 

Sorghum: 
Total net sales of 261,100 MT for 2021/2022 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China.  Exports of 80,000 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were to China (79,400 MT) and Mexico (600 MT).

Rice:
 Net
sales of 43,200 MT for 2021/2022 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for El Salvador (14,800 MT, including 14,500 MT switched from Guatemala), South Korea (14,200 MT), Japan (13,000 MT),
Jordan (5,200 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Guatemala (13,000 MT).  Exports of 17,100 MT were down 66 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico
(5,100 MT), El Salvador (5,000 MT), Jordan (2,800 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), and Saudi Arabia (800 MT).

Exports
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 200 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 1,289,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 25 percent the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (939,300 MT, including 583,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 15,000 MT), Germany
(311,400 MT), Egypt (231,400 MT, including 119,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,700 MT), Portugal (82,100 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (80,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), were offset
by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (847,400 MT).  Total net sales of 30,000 MT for 2022/2023 were for unknown destinations.  Exports of 3,701,700 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 40 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior
4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (2,337,700 MT), Germany (311,400 MT), Egypt (142,900 MT), Bangladesh (113,200 MT), and Taiwan (99,300 MT).

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, exports for own account totaling 66,400 MT to Canada were applied to new or outstanding sales.

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
export of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 70,704 MT for week ending September 30^th, 127,295 MT for week ending October 14^th, and 113,448 MT for week ending October 21^st.  The correct destination for these shipments
is Germany. 

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 278,000 MT for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (69,600 MT, including decreases of 11,300 MT), the Philippines (65,900 MT), Colombia (57,100 MT, including
decreases of 1,200 MT), Ecuador (18,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (11,100 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (5,700 MT).  
Net sales reductions of 100 MT for 2022/2023 resulting in increases for the Netherlands (500 MT), were more than offset by reductions for primarily for Japan (500 MT). 
Exports of 166,400 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (48,700 MT), Peru (31,900 MT), Canada (22,300 MT), Colombia (18,400 MT), and Honduras (13,400 MT). 

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 10,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 7 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for the Dominican Republic (3,100 MT), Colombia (2,500 MT), Venezuela (2,500 MT), Honduras (900 MT), and
Mexico (800 MT).  Exports of 6,000 MT were down 41 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Venezuela (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Honduras (1,000 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 128,000 RB for 2021/2022 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (78,800 RB), Bangladesh (16,800 RB), Turkey (13,300 RB), Pakistan (8,100 RB), and South Korea (7,900
RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Indonesia (12,900 RB).  Net sales of 11,600 RB for 2022/2023 were reported for Costa Rica (5,000 RB), Pakistan (4,400 RB), and Turkey (2,200 RB).  Exports of 87,900 RB were down 38 percent from the previous week
and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (36,700 RB), Mexico (18,000 RB), Vietnam (8,100 RB), Indonesia (7,100 RB), and Pakistan (3,300 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 6,500 RB were down 80 percent from the previous
week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (3,900 RB), China (900 RB switched from Vietnam), Peru (700 RB), Germany (400 RB), and Bahrain (300 RB).  Exports of 9,600 RB were up 25 percent from the previous week and
48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (7,900 RB), Greece (400 RB), South Korea (400 RB), Bangladesh (400 RB), and Austria (300 RB).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB is for Pakistan. 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 100 RB is for Vietnam.

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 638,400 pieces for 2021 were up 38 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (510,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 4,900 pieces), South Korea (47,800 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 300 pieces), Mexico (38,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 500 pieces), Thailand (14,100 whole cattle hides, including 1,900 whole cattle hides switched from Taiwan and decreases of 600 pieces), and Canada (6,200 whole
cattle hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces).  Total net sales of 2,600 kip skins were for China.  Net sales of 16,300 pieces for 2022 were reported for China (10,200 whole cattle hides), Taiwan (3,600 whole cattle hides), Vietnam (1,800 whole cattle
hides), and Canada (700 whole cattle hides).  Exports of 361,300 pieces were down 10 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily to China (227,800 pieces), South Korea (43,800 pieces),
Mexico (31,800 pieces), Thailand (14,200 pieces), and Indonesia (12,200 pieces).  In addition, exports of 1,300 kip skins were to China.

Net
sales of 40,600 wet blues for 2021 were down 56 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases for Mexico (11,100 grain splits and 900 unsplit), Vietnam (10,700 unsplit, including decreases of 1,600 unsplit), China
(10,400 unsplit), Italy (4,500 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), and South Korea (3,200 grain splits), were offset by reductions for Italy (100 grain splits).  Net sales of 29,800 wet blues for 2022 were reported for Italy (28,200 grain splits)
and Vietnam (1,600 unsplit).  Exports of 94,700 wet blues were down 29 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (35,100 unsplit and 5,500 grain splits), China (30,700 unsplit), Vietnam
(18,200 unsplit), Brazil (2,300 unsplit), and Mexico (2,000 grain splits).  Total net sales of 54,100 splits were for China.  Exports of 449,100 pounds were to Vietnam (240,000 pounds) and China (209,100 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 20,600 MT for 2021 were up 23 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (8,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (4,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,200 MT,
including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), and South Korea (1,600 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), were offset by reductions for Panama (200 MT) and Colombia (100 MT).  Net sales of 400 MT for 2022 resulting in increases for Japan (600 MT), China
(200 MT), and Mexico (100 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (500 MT).  Exports of 17,000 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,000 MT), Japan
(3,700 MT), China (3,200 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT). 

Pork: 
Net
sales of 23,300 MT for 2021 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (7,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (5,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (5,400 MT,
including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (3,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (2,400 MT).  Net sales of 13,600 MT for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (13,300
MT).  Exports of 32,000 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,200 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), China (3,600 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT), and Colombia (2,400 MT).