FI Morning Grain Comments 11/14/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
is up 61 points, WTI crude off $0.83 and US equities lower. The CBOT ag markets are mixed. South America saw as expected beneficial rain over the weekend. President Biden and Xi plan to meet at the G20 summit, with talks including trade relations. This will
be the first time they meet. They both agree war must never include nuclear weapons.

 

 

 

Weather

US
rainfall for the Great Plains over the weekend was as expected. Temps will be on the cooler side this week for the majority of the US but expect late harvesting to proceed. The Midwest will see light precipitation today across the west-central areas, and north-central
areas Tuesday through Wednesday. South America saw rain over the weekend and will receive more over the next week, with exception of Argentina trending drier.

 

 

Last
7 days

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 14, 2022

• Well
  timed rain was evolving in South America during the weekend, and it will continue this week, although Argentina will trend drier after the beginning of the week
• Australia
  will see some periodic showers and drizzle during the coming week, but no generalized significant rain is expected after widespread significant rain fell during the weekend
• Temperatures
  need to warm up throughout the nation
• Southeast
  Asia will continue plenty wet over the next ten days
• Southern
  India may feel the impact of a tropical disturbance during the weekend while dry weather continues elsewhere
• Europe
  will trend wetter this week
• Eastern
  Europe; including Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States, western Russia and Poland will trend cooler later this week
  
• Western
  Europe will trend cooler as well, but temperatures will not fall below normal
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin will get badly needed rain this week
• Snow
  cover is greater than usual in northern and western parts of North America and eastern Russia
  

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 14:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn, soy and cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options (delayed release as Friday was a holiday)
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council’s Internet Seminar, through Nov. 18

Tuesday,
Nov. 15:

• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket, Thailand – day 1
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 1
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-15 palm oil export data
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Forum in Singapore, through Nov. 17
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Nov. 16:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 2
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 2
• Panel
  on global food crisis at Bloomberg New Economy Forum

Thursday,
Nov. 17:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 3
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 3

Friday,
Nov. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of Oct. trade data, including corn, pork, wheat imports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• US
  cattle of feed, 3pm

Sunday,
Nov 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are lower from a higher USD and lack of fresh news.

·        
Eight grain vessels left Ukraine Sunday headed for various countries, a sign shipments are ongoing despite no concrete decision by Russia to extend the grain deal. Russia did indicate the UN talks were constructive.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower in the on expiring months on lack of fresh news and slightly correction in soybean oil share after December position hit 49 percent late last week. Palm oil was weighing on SBO and product spreading lifted
meal higher. Quarantines were cut by two days to eight days last week.

·        
China said they will continue fine-tuning covid measures. They may relax on more rules by mid-2023.

·        
India’s palm oil imports in 2021-22 fell 4.8% due to restriction of palm oil shipments from Indonesia during the marketing year. Palm oil imports fell to 7.9 million tons from 8.3 million tons a year earlier.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was down 175 Ringgit to 4,112and cash was off $22.00/ton to $970/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were down 0.7%, meal down 1.4%, soybean oil down 0.3% and palm oil up 0.2%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were mostly 10-15 euros lower from this time Friday morning. SA meal was 2-7 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 139 points lower earlier this morning and meal $7.20
lower.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher for KC and MN and unchanged to lower for Chicago. A higher USD is weighing on Chicago.

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat reserves to last for 5 months and vegetable oils for 4.8 months.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 1.75 euros earlier at 325.50 euros a ton.

·        
French farmers have nearly completed sowing soft wheat and winter barley for next year’s production. 92 percent of the French wheat crop was sown as of November 7.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia bought a more than expected amount of wheat (595,000 tons sought). They abought 1.009 million tons of wheat at an average price of $382.56/ton for April-June arrival. EU and Black Sea was thought to be main origin.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat set to close November 15 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on November 16 for arrival by February 24.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Reuters) – Thailand rice exports were up 39.1% in the first nine months of this year, compared to the same period a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on Monday. Thai rice exported reached 5.41 million tons in the January
to September period this year, it said in a statement said.