FI Morning Grain Comments 11/15/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported the following sales activity:

-230,185
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-261,272
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

USD
is down 92 points, WTI crude off $1.31 and US equities higher. US wheat futures are lower on renewed hopes over an extension of the Black Grain deal. Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat for March/April shipment. They had five offers. Japan
seeks 94,687 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada later this week for arrival by February 28. Corn futures fell to a 2-month low overnight following weakness in wheat and lower WTI crude oil. The US corn and soybean harvest is nearly complete.
CBOT soybeans are lower on US harvesting pressure, increase in Brazil’s soybean planting pace and lower grains. Soybean oil was turned higher on light bull spreading. Soybean meal was lower. Palm oil futures fell to a 2-week low overnight.

 

 

 

 

Weather

Temperatures
will be on the cooler side this week for the majority of the US. The Midwest will see light precipitation today across the central areas. The northeastern Midwestern states will see light precipitation during the second half of the workweek.  The US Great
Pains will be mostly dry through Saturday. South America will receive additional precipitation over the next week, but amounts may be lighter than over the past several days. Much of Argentina will trend drier through Wednesday. Argentina may see isolated
showers Thursday through Friday. Canada’s Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will see isolated snow showers through Wednesday. Australia saw another round of heavy rain across the southeastern part of the country.

 

Reuters 
– “Heavy rain smashed parts of southwest New South Wales and northeast Victoria over the weekend. Cowra, which lies about 300 km (186 miles) west of Sydney, received 121 mm (4.8 inches) over 24 hours to Monday morning, the highest daily rainfall in 118 years,
data showed.”

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 15, 2022

• Center
  west and southern Brazil will be dry through the weekend with much needed rain expected early next week
• The
  early week rain will be good for Mato Grosso, Goias and northern Mato Grosso do Sul and dryness will be eased in those areas, but Rio Grande do Sul rainfall is unlikely to be very great and only temporary relief is expected to the below-average rainfall bias
  that has been prevailing there.
• Argentina’s
  rain recently was good for spring and summer crop planting, but follow up rain is still needed
• Argentina
  will see some rain in the coming week to ten days, but most of the greater rain will be in Buenos Aires and other areas in the nation will need greater rainfall to maintain the improving crop and field condition trend
• Snow
  fell in the dry areas of southwestern Kansas, the Texas Panhandle and neighboring areas of Oklahoma overnight with 1 to 5 inches resulting
• The
  moisture content in the snow was not very great, though, and no significant change in drought status occurred
• Western
  portions of U.S. hard red winter wheat country will continue to be drier than usual for an indefinite period of time
• Rain
  fell in the lower Delta and southeastern Great Plains Monday and sufficient rain occurred to maintain favorable soil moisture
• The
  northern Delta was not included in the precipitation event though
• South
  Africa will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks supporting summer crop planting, emergence and establishment
• India
  is still facing a weak tropical cyclone in the far south of the nation late this weekend into early next week resulting in some additional heavy rain in Tamil Nadu
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin is still expecting waves of rain during the next few days resulting in improved soil moisture for better rapeseed emergence and establishment
• Better
  drying conditions are expected in eastern Australia over the next several days, although Victoria will receive some abundant rainfall late this week and into the weekend
  
• Colder
  temperatures are expected from northeastern Europe into Ukraine and southwestern Russia during the coming week
  
• Some
  snow will precede the coldest temperatures, but winterkill is unlikely
• Energy
  demand will be on the rise, though
• Warming
  will return in the second week of the outlook

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 15:

• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket, Thailand – day 1
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 1
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-15 palm oil export data
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Forum in Singapore, through Nov. 17
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

Wednesday,
Nov. 16:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 2
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 2
• Panel
  on global food crisis at Bloomberg New Economy Forum

Thursday,
Nov. 17:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• World
  Rice Conference in Phuket – day 3
• Global
  Grain Geneva conference – day 3

Friday,
Nov. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of Oct. trade data, including corn, pork, wheat imports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• US
  cattle of feed, 3pm

Sunday,
Nov 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Commitment
of Traders

Funds
were less long in corn and more long than expected in wheat.

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
76,408                   versus   100000-500000  range

Corn                     
484,001                 versus   200000-500000  range

Soybeans           
1,857,872             versus   2000000-2650000             range

 

Late
on Monday the trade reported the following IHS 2023 US acreage numbers…

 

Macros

US
PPI (M/M) Oct: 0.2% (est 0.4%; prevR 0.2%)

US
PPI Core (M/M) Oct: 0.0% (est 0.3%; prevR 0.2%)

US
PPI (Y/Y) Oct: 8.0% (est 8.3%; prevR 8.4%)

US
PPI Core (Y/Y) Oct: 6.7% (est 7.2%; prev 7.2%)

US
Empire Manufacturing Nov: 4.5 (est -6.0; prev -9.1)

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Sep: 0.0% (est -0.5%; prevR -1.9%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures fell
to a 2-month low overnight following weakness in wheat and lower WTI crude oil. Bloomberg mentioned Russia is expected to extend the Black Sea shipping deal.

·        
The US corn and soybean harvest is nearly complete.

·        
First Notice Day Deliveries for December are November 30. All Corn OI fell 32,406 yesterday. December OI fell 43,200 contracts. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of November 10, 2022, were 484,001 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 232,510 tons previous week and compares to 866,891 tons year ago. Major countries included Chia for 208,077
tons, Mexico for 183,487 tons, and Japan for 62,156 tons.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans
are lower on US harvesting pressure, increase in Brazil’s soybean planting pace and lower grains. Soybean oil was higher on light bull spreading. Soybean meal was lower. Palm oil futures fell to a 2-week low overnight. Traders are waiting for Argentina to
announce a new soybean dollar program. Producer selling in Argentina has been very light.

·        
NOPA is due out with its October crush and soybean oil stocks later this morning (11 am CT).  We don’t look for fireworks but Reuters did post a wide trade range, 175.0-191.3, average 187.3 for the crush. SBO stocks are seen rising
from the previous month.

·        
Oil World today noted soybean oil shipments from combined Argentina, Brazil and the US fell to a 21-month low of nearly 500,000 tons during October, citing high global prices relative to competing vegetable oils.

·        
AgRural: Brazil soybean plantings 69% versus 57% week earlier and 78% year ago.

·        
AmSpec reported Malaysian November 1-15 palm oil exports at 657,896 tons, up 10.7 percent from 594,282 tons previous period month earlier. SGS reported a 3.5% increase to 662,816 tons. ITS reported a 12.7% increase to 714,518
tons.

·        
Malaysia January palm oil futures was down 79 Ringgit to 4,033 and cash was off $12.00/ton to $957.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were down 0.4%, meal down 0.9%, soybean oil down 1% and palm oil down 2.7%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were 10-15 euros lower from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was unchanged to $1.00 euro higher.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 47 points higher earlier this morning and meal $0.40
higher.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of November 10, 2022, were 1,857,872 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 2,606,157 tons previous week and compares to 2,434,312 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,274,571 tons, Mexico for 135,270 tons, and Taiwan for 92,758 tons.

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on renewed hopes over an extension of the Black Grain deal. Bloomberg reported Russia is expected to extend the Black Sea shipping deal, citing “people familiar with the situation”. The trade still does
not know if the UN and Russia discussed any specific conditions. Separately a Reuters story said Russia will announce a decision “at the appropriate time.”

·        
US winter wheat ratings improved 2 percentage points to 32 percent, one point above expectations but lowest for this time of year since USDA began reporting conditions in 1988.  Note 2012 the winter wheat rating was 36 percent.
74 percent of the US winter wheat area is experiencing some type of drought.

·        
Ukraine 2022-23 winter grain plantings reached 92 percent complete.

·        
Paris December wheat was down 4.50 euros earlier at 319.50 euros a ton, lowest since early September.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of November 10, 2022, were 76,408 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 181,989 tons previous week and compares to 400,219 tons year ago. Major countries included Philippines
for 40,380 tons, Mexico for 22,252 tons, and Colombia for 12,650 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
China bought 2 cargoes of French wheat over the past week for January and March shipment.

·        
Yesterday Iraq bought 200,000 tons of US wheat. No prices or delivery timeframe was provided.

·        
Jordan passed on 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat for March/April shipment. They had five offers.

·        
Japan seeks 94,687 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada later this week for arrival by February 28.

·        
Jordan is back in for 120,000 tons of barley for March/April shipment on November 16 for March/April shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat on November 29 for March/April shipment.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of wheat and 40,000 tons of barley on November 16 for arrival by February 24.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported