FI Morning Grain Comments 11/18/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

CBOT
agriculture futures rose early Friday morning (exception KC and Mn wheat) on technical buying and renewed talk over tighter grain supplies.
Another round of selling in WTI crude oil may create a two-sided trade environment.
Paris
wheat futures are higher. Yesterday there was talk China may have bought additional French wheat.
USDA Cattle on Feed is due out after the close.

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

US
weather forecast was unchanged this morning. Temperatures will trend warmer over the next ten days after plunging late this weekend.  The Great Plains will see rain return to the far southern areas Saturday through Monday. Rest of the US Great Plains wheat
areas will remain dry. The Midwest will see snow across the northeast through Saturday. Other areas will be mostly dry. Some rain will fall across La Pampa and southwest BA Thursday through Friday and Cordoba Saturday. Brazil’s Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas
should see rain through Sunday and MGDS, Parana and nearby surrounding and states early next week. Precipitation increases for the EU over the next week and the Black Sea will be active bias southern Ukraine and Volga Valley.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 18, 2022

• Not
  many changes were noted overnight
• East-central
  and southern China crop areas are expected to continue trending wetter during the next ten days with most areas from the Yangtze River Basin southward to the coast getting rain at one time or another
• Improved
  rapeseed emergence and establishment will result
• Far
  southern India will remain wet over the next ten days
• The
  tropical disturbance advertised earlier this week to impact Andhra Pradesh early next week may dissipate before reaching the coast
  
• U.S.
  weather was generally dry Thursday except Lake Effect snow in the Great Lakes region and tranquil conditions will prevail through mid-week next week before rain and snow evolve in the eastern Midwest and Atlantic Coast states late next week and into the following
  weekend
• Hard
  red winter wheat areas will remain mostly dry especially in the high Plains region
• West
  Texas harvest weather will remain good for the next ten days
• U.S.
  cold weather will remain through the weekend and then begin to abate next week with above normal temperatures expected in the Plains and a part of the western United States during the latter part of next week through the following weekend and into the last
  days of this month
• Argentina
  is still expected to receive rain Sunday and Monday and then be dry for another week thereafter
• Any
  rain that falls prior to Sunday will be limited to the southwest and mostly light
• The
  moisture will be welcome and good for summer crop planting and development, but not enough to fix long term moisture deficits and concern about long term crop development potential will remain until there is greater rain to soak the subsoil
  
• The
  moisture will be good, though, for additional planting, emergence and establishment
• Brazil
  is still expecting a good mix of rain and sunshine to maintain a mostly good environment for crop development; including grains, oilseeds, cotton, citrus, sugarcane and coffee
• There
  will continue to be a little concern over lighter than usual rain from central Mato Grosso through Paraguay and Parana to Rio Grande do Sul, but sufficient rain will fall to support crop needs as long as the advertised rain falls at the intervals suggested
  by the forecast model runs
• Eastern
  Australia (away from Victoria) will continue to see less frequent and less significant rain over the next ten days supporting better winter crop maturation and harvest conditions
• Summer
  crop planting, emergence and establishment conditions will improve as well
• Western
  Australia weather will remain fine
• Europe
  and CIS weather was unchanged today keeping an active weather pattern over the next ten days except in the Baltic Plain where precipitation will be minimal
• Relief
  from drought is expected in the lower Danube River Basin as well as southern France, but eastern Spain will continue in need of greater rain.
• South
  Africa weather is still expected to be favorably mixed for all of agriculture and fieldwork

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Nov. 18:

• Malaysia
  closed for holiday
• China’s
  second batch of Oct. trade data, including corn, pork, wheat imports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• US
  cattle of feed, 3pm

Sunday,
Nov 20:

• China’s
  third batch of October trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country

Monday,
Nov. 21:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop harvesting for corn and cotton; winter wheat plantation and condition, 4pm
• MARS
  monthly report on EU crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-20 palm oil exports
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Tuesday,
Nov. 22:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• US
  cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• EARNINGS:
  Sime Darby Plantation

Wednesday,
Nov. 23:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Thursday,
Nov. 24:

• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  US

Friday,
Nov. 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-25 palm oil export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

US
EPA RIN Generation

U.S.
GENERATED 477 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN OCT., VS 502 MLN IN SEPT.

U.S.
GENERATED 1.24 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN OCTOBER, VS 1.13 BLN IN SEPTEMBER

VS.
2021

U.S.
GENERATED 420 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN OCT 2021., VS 385 MLN IN SEPT.

U.S.
GENERATED 1.2 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN OCTOBER 2021, VS 1.16 BLN IN SEPTEMBER

 

 

 

Macros

Canadian
Industrial Product Price (M/M) Oct: 2.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.1%)

Canadian
Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) Oct: 1.3% (est 0.1%; prev -3.2%)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are
higher on follow through technical buying, slightly lower USD and a slowdown in late harvest progress across the northern US ECB states.

·        
Yesterday corn basis rose at an Ohio location by 15 cents and we heard someone paid 90 over the December corn contract in the western corn Belt.

·        
China corn imports during October were 550,000 tons, 58 percent below what was imported a year earlier. Year to date China corn imports were 19.01 million tons, a 28 percent decrease.  Pork imports for the January – October period
are down 59 percent from same period during 2021 and wheat imports are running 3 percent below year earlier.

·        
Ukraine harvested 18 percent of their 2022 grain crop or 39.1 million tons as of November 17.

·        
Kenya approved their first GMO corn imports after lifting their ban. The government opened a 6-month window to allow imports of 10 million bags of GMO and non-GMO corn.

·        
Bloomberg: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 3.6%.  October placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 2.17m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts. That would be the lowest October reading since 2012.

·        
Reuters trade estimates below:

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans,
meal and soybean oil are higher on light fund buying, but another round of selling in WTI crude oil may create a two-sided trade environment.

·        
The Argentina AgMin sees the soybean area at 16.5 million hectares.

·        
The Buenos Aires grains exchange reported 12% of the Argentina soybean crop planted versus 29 percent year ago. They are using a 16.7 million hectare area.

·        
Malaysia is on holiday. For the week palm futures are down 10 percent.

·        
China November soybeans were up 1.2%, meal 0.7% lower, soybean oil 0.6% higher and palm oil down 0.5%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 10 euros lower from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was unchanged to 2 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 213 points higher earlier this morning (51 higher for the week to date) and meal $1.50
higher ($9.00 higher for the week).

 

Export
Developments

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mixed. Chicago wheat saw technical buying earlier. News is light.

·        
Paris December wheat was up 3.00 euros earlier at 327.50 euros a ton.

·        
Yesterday there was talk China may have bought additional French wheat. Earlier this week we heard they bought a couple cargoes.

·        
France is nearly complete with their 2023-24 soft wheat planting progress. 87 percent of the soft wheat crop is emerged. 98% of soft wheat and winter barley crops were in good or excellent condition. 74 percent of the durum crop
had been planted.

·        
India wheat plantings are running 15 percent above this time year ago. Producer sowed 10.1 million hectares since October 1 through November 18.

·        
Argentina’s AgMin estimated the wheat production at 13.4 million tons, down 39.4% from 22.1 million for 2021-22. USDA is at 15.5 million tons, BA grains exchange at 12.4 million and Rosario exchange at 11.8 million.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia bought 75,000 tons of barley (not wheat) at $339.91 and $344.89/ton c&f for December and late January shipment.

·        
Egypt’s GASC bought one cargo of wheat at $361.50/ton in a private deal on Thursday. No details were provided. On Wednesday GASC contracted for 300,000 tons of Russian wheat in a private deal at an estimated $362/ton for Dec-Jan
shipment.

·        
Japan was in for 94,687 tons of food wheat this week from the US and Canada later this week for arrival by February 28. Original details below.

·        
China will auction off 40,000 tons of wheat from reserves on November 23.

·        
Pakistan is in for 500,000 tons of wheat on November 28.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat on November 29 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported