FI Morning Grain Comments 11/23/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 110,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year. The next U.S. Export Sales Report will be released on Friday, November 25, 2022. -FAS/USDA.  Futures volume was on the heavier side earlier
this morning ahead of the holiday. Mixed trade again today with wheat lower, corn higher, soybeans higher, meal mixed and SBO lower. The USD is lower, WTI sharply lower and equities lower.

 

 

 

Weather

7-day
suggests a pickup in rain for the US southeast. The US trends drier this week with a few showers for eastern TX and wintery mix for the Midwest areas of the northwestern states. Rain should favor the US Midwest southwestern areas Thursday. The Delta turned
wetter for the rest of this week. Argentina will dry down through Friday. Brazil will see additional rain through Wednesday. West-central Brazil will begin to dry down soon and will remain dry throughout the week.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 23, 2022

• Argentina’s
  drought will reach a new level of intensity over the coming week as hotter temperatures overtake the nation and rainfall is kept to a minimum
  
• Crop
  stress is already a serious problem in the central and eastern crop areas and with temperatures in the 90s to over 100 Fahrenheit likely later this week into early next week with little to no rain the situation will be quite stressful and threatening to early
  season corn and sunseed that have already been struggling at times
• Argentina’s
  first opportunity for cooling and some rain a week from now will be welcome, but the rain distribution may prove to be inadequate in seriously changing the moisture profile and any relief from the heat and dryness may only be brief
  
• Brazil’s
  center west and southern crop areas are also going to experience less rain and warmer temperatures over the coming week
• Dryness
  in Brazil is much less expansive today than that in Argentina, but it will expand quickly as another week of drying takes place
• A
  greater level of concern over center west and far southern Brazil soil and crop conditions may evolve during the next week and any rain that falls late next week into the following weekend will be very important
• Parana
  will get rain sooner than that, but Rio Grande do Sul, Paraguay, Uruguay, Mato Grosso do Sul and some south-central Mato Grosso locations may not get much rain for a week and that which occurs at that time will be extremely important in easing the drying trend
• Other
  areas in Brazil will receive timely rainfall over the next ten days
• Most
  of Australia will experience net drying during the next week to ten days favoring winter crop filling, maturation and harvesting
• Some
  rain will fall in southeastern Queensland that may impact sugarcane and eastern cotton areas starting next week, but much of the winter crop should be harvested from that region.
  
• U.S.
  weather will be wet from the southwestern Plains through the Delta and into the Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states
• Relief
  to low water levels on the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Rivers is likely by this time next week and some rise on the river is likely
• Ohio
  River water levels may rise a little, but not nearly as much as the lower Mississippi River due to heavy rain in Louisiana, Arkansas and Tennessee
  
• U.S.
  west-central high Plains will stay dry over the next ten days
• An
  upper Midwest and northeastern U.S. Plains storm next week will produce significant snow and blowing snow
• Europe
  and the western CIS will continue in an active precipitation pattern with no threatening cold
• Bitter
  cold in eastern Russia will settle into China next week, but the impact on winter crops should be low

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Nov. 23:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Thursday,
Nov. 24:

• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  US

Friday,
Nov. 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  Nov. 1-25 palm oil export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Nov 19: 240K (est 225K; prev 222K)

US
Continuing Claims Nov 12: 1551K (est 1520K; prev 1507K)

US
Durable Goods Orders Oct P: 1.0% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)

US
Durables Ex Transportation Oct P: 0.5% (est 0.0%; prev -0.5%)

US
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Oct P: 0.7% (est 0.0%; prevR -0.8%)

US
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Oct P: 1.3% (est 0.1%; prevR -0.1%)

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are
higher despite lower wheat.

·        
Regular close today for CBOT markets. Keep in mind we close early on Friday.

·        
December options expire Friday. Corn is heavy on the call side

670
calls 17,045

700
calls 26,532

750
call 24,716

On
the puts 650 has 16,133 open interest

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 11,000 thousand to 1022k (1004-1060 range) from the previous week and stocks up 6,000 barrels to 21.304 million.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans
are lower and products seeing a reversal with meal mixed and soybean oil lower. WTI crude oil was down more than $2.20 earlier and that might be pressuring SBO.

·        
24-H sales to China could limit losses for soybean futures.

·        
Ongoing chatter of a new soybean dollar for Argentina continues to circulate and that may be causing a little selling in other countries as farmers try to get ahead of a potentially heavy soybean environment in Argentina. 

·        
News for the soybean complex continues to be light.

·        
Malaysia February palm oil futures was up 101 ringgit to 4,105 and cash was up $17.50/ton to $962.50/ton.

·        
China November soybeans were down 0.2%, meal 0.7% higher, soybean oil 0.5% higher and palm oil up 1.6%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were up mixed from this time yesterday morning. SA meal was 1.00-7.50 lower.

·        
Offshore values this morning were leading soybean oil 44 points lower earlier this morning and meal $0.40
higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
USDA: Private exporters reported sales of 110,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year.

·        
China plans to auction off 500,000 tons of soybeans from reserves on November 25.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on follow through fund selling, improving weather for Argentina and Australia along with rumors of US importing new crop wheat.

·        
A lower USD may limit losses but it’s unlikely the US will see an uptick in exports.

·        
Paris December wheat was lower by 7.00 euros earlier at 326.75 euros a ton after trading higher Tuesday. March was off 4 euros at 318.25.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Results awaited: Algeria seeks at least 50,000 tons of durum wheat for last half December and first half January arrival.

·        
Thailand bought 60,000 tons of feed wheat from Australia at about $345/ton for Jan-Mar shipment.

·        
Turkey seeks 455,000 tons of milling wheat on November 29 for Dec/Jan shipment.

·        
Jordan passed on barley for March and April shipment.

·        
Pakistan is in for 500,000 tons of wheat on November 28.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of hard milling wheat on November 29 for March/April shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Turkey seeks 40,000 tons of rice on November 25 for Dec 5-Feb 15 shipment.