FI Morning Grain Comments 11/29/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

Unless
we see global shipments slow, we think business as usual for the agriculture markets. CBOT corn is lower on lack of fresh news and wheat higher on global demand and technical buying as traders shrugged off the negative sentiment stirred up on Friday over the
new Covid-19 variant. Jordan, Egypt and Bangladesh are in for wheat. Other commodity markets are rebounding, such as WTI crude oil up over $3.50. USD is 18 points higher. Soybeans are also recovering. Offshore values are leading soybean oil 163 points higher
and meal $3.50 short ton higher. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
                                                                                                 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOVEMBER 29, 2021

• Argentina
  received significant rain during the weekend bolstering soil  moisture along with that which occurred earlier last week.
  
• The
  moisture profile is very good right now, but ten days of drying may be ahead, and the nation will need another drink of water in the second and third weeks in December.
  
• Southern
  Brazil was left mostly dry during the weekend and the region will continue to dry down for a while.
  
• A
  closer watch on southern Brazil will be warranted over the next ten days due to additional drying.
  
• Australia’s
  rainy weather in wheat, barley, canola, cotton and sorghum areas continued during the weekend in Queensland and eastern New South Wales, but a much needed break from rainy weather will occur over the period from Tuesday through the coming weekend to improve
  crop and harvest conditions.
• A
  tropical cyclone will threaten India’s upper east coast late this week and into the weekend with high wind speeds, coastal flooding and significant rain.
  
• Europe
  and the western parts of the Russia and Ukraine will turn wetter over the next week to ten days with some cooling likely this weekend into next week.
  
• China’s
  weather will remain relatively quiet, although snow and rain may impact parts of the nation.
  
• In
  the U.S., hard red winter wheat production areas will be dry and warm for the coming week to nearly ten days.
  
• Similar
  conditions are expected in the northwestern Plains and western Corn Belt as well as in a part of the southeastern states.
  
• The
  Delta and lower and eastern Midwest will see some precipitation periodically while West Texas and interior parts of the far western states are dry. 
• No
  big issues are seen for coffee, citrus or sugarcane areas around the world this morning

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 29:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  winter wheat conditions, cotton harvest data, 4pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases November trade data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Nov. 30:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia’s
  November palm oil exports
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• Australia’s
  quarterly crop report

Wednesday,
Dec. 1:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Gapki’s
  Indonesian Palm Oil Conference, day 1
• Brazil
  Unica sugar output, cane crush data (tentative)
• U.S.
  DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• Australia
  Commodity Index

Thursday,
Dec. 2:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Gapki’s
  Indonesian Palm Oil Conference, day 2

Friday,
Dec. 3:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Canada’s
  Statcan releases wheat, durum, canola, barley, soybean production data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

FI
FND delivery estimates

Soybean
meal Zero

Soybean
oil 0-300

Corn
Zero

Chicago
wheat 500-1000

KC
wheat 0-100

MN
wheat 0-150

 

Macros

(Bloomberg)
— Hong Kong’s stock benchmark closed at the lowest level in more than a year on Monday, as the omicron Covid-19 strain fueled worries about the outlook of border reopening and economic growth.

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn turned lower. The USD is 18 points higher. There was no fresh news for the corn market that developed over the weekend. But traders are shrugging off the negative market sentiment stirred up on Friday over the new Covid-19
variant. 

·        
Other commodity markets are rebounding as well, such as WTI crude oil up over $3.50. 

·        
Keep an eye on USDA corn export inspections and shipments to China. They are expected to increase to that country over the coming weeks. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported.

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are higher but we see gains limited with a favorable start to the Brazil planting and establishment of their upcoming crop.  Offshore values are leading the products higher and a rebound in outside commodity markets is
supportive. We see no major weather issues for NA and SA.    

·        
There were no changes in CBOT ag registrations.

·        
Brazil is 91% complete on soybean plantings according to Safras & Mercado, up from 84% previous week and 83% year ago. 

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 163 points higher and meal $3.50 short ton higher. 

·        
China soybean futures were down 1.4%, meal 0.1% lower, SBO off 0.9%, and palm down 1.0%.

·        
China:

·        
Rotterdam meal values were 2-5 euros higher and vegetable oils mixed.

·        
Malaysian February palm futures were up 8 ringgit at 4857.  Cash palm was down $5.00/ton to $1217.50/ton.

·        
Malaysia

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $2.17/bu, versus $2.17 at the end of last week (unchanged) and compares to $0.81 a year ago.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is higher with Jordan, Egypt and Bangladesh issuing new import tenders.

·        
The US Great Plains will remain mostly dry over the next ten days and this is a little concerning for the last batch of wheat entering dormancy.

·        
The USD is 18 points higher but does not appear to be affecting price movement.

·        
March Matif Paris wheat was 0.25 euros higher at 303.00 as of 7:15 am CT. 

·        
Russia exported 18 million tons of grain since July, down 24% from the same period year ago. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Egypt is in for wheat for Jan 9-20 shipment and lowest offer was $350.85 per ton fob for 60,000 tons of Romanian origin.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on Dec. 8. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on December 2. Possible shipment combinations are in 2022 between May 1-15, May 16-31, June 1-15 and June 16-30.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on December 1 for shipment between May 1-15, May 16-31, June 1-15 and June 16-30.

·        
Iraq seeks 500,000 tons of wheat starting in December for an unknown shipment period. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported