FI Morning Grain Comments 12/07/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

Private
exporters reported the following: 123,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

USD
is 21 higher, WTI about $1.50 higher and US equities are higher. Easing concerns over the new virus strain are supporting those markets. US CBOT agriculture futures are mixed this morning on lack of direction (other than SBO). Look for traders to monitor the
Ukraine/Russia situation. There are a few fresh wheat import developments and SK bought corn from Argentina.  Offshore values are leading soybean oil 45 points higher and meal $4.40 short ton higher. Malaysian palm rallied 179 points and cash  was up $25/ton. 

 

 

Weather

                                                                                                                    

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 7, 2021

• Few
  changes were noted around the world overnight.
• Concern
  about net drying continues in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina with some crop moisture stress already under way in western Parana and immediate neighboring areas where it is already dry.
  
• Center
  west and center south Brazil will get routinely occurring rainfall to support crops and western Argentina is also expecting timely rain.
  
• Australia’s
  harvest weather looks good over the next ten days and rainfall in Queensland and New South Wales summer crop areas will be more limited for a while supporting fieldwork of all kinds.
  
• Western
  Russia, Ukraine and eastern Europe will experience a more active weather pattern for a while
  
• Dryness
  remains in Morocco and northwestern Algeria where concern is rising over the planting and establishment of unirrigated wheat and barley.
  
• South
  Africa’s weather looks favorable for the next two weeks
• Southern
  India is seeing better weather after too much rain last month.
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will continue dry biased for at least ten days.
  
• The
  far western U.S., including California, will see a more active weather pattern evolving this weekend and especially next week while the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and lower and eastern parts of the Midwest continue to receive some occasional precipitation.
  
• No
  threatening cold is expected in any Northern Hemisphere wheat production region during the next ten days. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Dec. 7:

• China’s
  first batch of November trade data, including soybean, edible oil and meat imports
• Abares’
  quarterly agricultural commodities report
• French
  agriculture ministry’s monthly crop production estimate
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Dec. 8:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Fitch
  ESG Outlook Conference Asia Pacific, day 1
• FranceAgriMer’s
  monthly grains report

Thursday,
Dec. 9:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• China
  farm ministry’s monthly crop supply-demand report (CASDE)
• Brazil’s
  Conab report on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans
• Fitch
  ESG Outlook Conference Asia Pacific, day 2
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Dec. 10:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on November palm oil reserves, output and exports
• Malaysia’s
  Dec. 1-10 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
245,963                 versus   150000-400000  range

Corn                     
758,169                 versus   600000-1000000                range

Soybeans           
2,246,664             versus   1850000-2325000             range

 

Macros

US
Trade Balance (USD) Oct: -67.1B (exp -66.8B; R prev -81.4B)

US
Nonfarm Productivity Q3 F: -5.2% (exp -4.9%; prev -5.0%)

–         
Unit Labour Costs Q3 F: 9.6% (exp 8.3%; prev 8,.3%)

Canadian
International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Oct: 2.09B (exp 2.08B; prev 1.86B)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is lower on lack of direction and news.   

·        
USD is 21 points higher, WTI about $1.50 higher and US equities are higher. Easing concerns over the new virus strain are supporting those markets.

·        
There was talk China bought US and Ukrainian corn this week. We can’t verify that but do know they were active buyers of Ukraine corn over the last couple of weeks. 

 

Export
developments.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG bought about 130,000 tons of corn from Argentina at 224.78 cents/bu c&f over the Chicago May contract and 210.79 cents over the July. Shipment was between Feb. 17 and March 8, 2022 and March 10 and March 29.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybean
complex is mixed this morning. Soybean meal is lower on product spreading. Soybean oil is seeing another rally from strength in palm oil.  Malaysian palm rallied 179 points and cash  was up $25/ton. Indonesia rejected a bid to reinstate two company palm oil
plantation permits in Papua. The plantations are small but will still have a slight impact on production.

·        
Traders are hoping for a US RVO announcement that will give the market some direction. 

·        
China November soybean imports were 8.57 million tons, up from 5.11 million in October. Jan-Nov imports were 87.65 MMT, down 5.5% from same period year ago. 

·        
China imported 673,000 tons of vegetable oils in November and Jan-Nov year were 9.573 million tons, up 1.6% on the year.

·        
Part of the Mississippi River was closed near Rosedale, Miss, after several barges ran aground.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 45 points higher and meal $4.40 short ton higher.

·        
Rotterdam meal values were mixed from yesterday morning and Rotterdam oil 13-40 euros higher.

·        
Malaysia

·        
China crush margins on our analysis was last $1.94 ($2.00 previous) versus $2.22 at the end of last week and compares to $0.93 a year ago.

·        
China futures were up 0.6% for soybeans, down 0.7% for meal and up 0.6% for both SBO and palm.

 

Export
Developments

·        
Private exporters reported the following:

-123,000
metric tons of soybeans to unknown during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

November
MPOB estimates via Reuters

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is mostly lower on follow through selling and lower Paris wheat.  

·        
Look for traders to monitor the Ukraine/Russia situation.

·        
Egypt said they have enough wheat stocks to last 5.3 months. 

·        
March Matif Paris wheat was 1.00 euro lower at 290.75.

·        
France estimated the soft winter wheat area at 4.92 million hectares, down from 4.96 million year before.  Winter barley area was pegged at 1.23 million hectares, up from 1.20 million hectares the prior year. 

 

France
winter area estimates

 

Export
Developments.

·        
The Philippines seeks 125,000 tons of feed barley and 300,000 tons of feed wheat on December 9 for Feb-Jun arrival.

·        
Japan seeks 260,312 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada.

·        
Jordan seeks another 120,000 tons of wheat on Dec 9 and seeks 120,000 tons of barley on Dec 8. 

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on Dec. 8. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea seeks 22,000 tons of rice from the US on December 9 for arrival in South Korea from May 2022 and from August 2022.