FI Morning Grain Comments 12/13/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
CPI M/M Nov: 0.1% (est 0.3%, prev 0.4%)

US
CPI Ex Food And Energy M/M Nov: 0.2%  (est 0.3%, prev 0.3%)

US
CPI Y/Y Nov: 7.1% (est 7.3%, prev 7.7%)

US
CPI Ex Food And Energy Y/Y Nov: 6.0% (est 6.1%, prev 6.3%)

 

US
CPI was bullish for US equities and selected commodities. USD is down more than 135 points. FMOC will meet Wednesday.

 

Light
news day for the US agriculture markets. January soybeans, nearby meal and oil are all higher from widespread commodity buying and a lower USD. Oil share continues to correct and the nearby crush is very form. Palm oil futures rallied overnight from lower-than-expected
end of November stocks. MPOB reported palm oil stocks at the end of November fell for the first time in six months from lower-than-expected production and imports.
Grains
are higher from ongoing
Black Sea shipping concerns and lower USD. Air raids went off across all of Ukraine after 6:30 am CT, according to a headline. A major winter storm will impact the north-central US today through Thursday.

 

 

 

Weather

Argentina
will see rain again during the second week of the forecast. Until then, look for Argentina to see net drying. Brazil will see good rain over the next couple of weeks with exception of the far southern areas. The US will see a welcome winter storm this week,
boosting snow coverage. Temps will turn colder for the US over the next two weeks. Eastern Europe and the western CIS will see two winter storms this week.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 13, 2022

• Argentina
  will not receive enough rain to counter evaporation over the next week to ten days except in the far northwest where dry beans, sugarcane and citrus are produced
• Argentina
  weather Dec. 23-27 will trend wetter in western and a few far southern portions of the nation leaving the east-central and some central parts of the nation still too dry
• Far
  southern Brazil and southern Paraguay rainfall will continue restricted for a while
• All
  other areas in Brazil will remain plenty wet with a very good outlook
• North-central
  U.S. snowfall will be substantial over the next few days with 6-12 inches in general and a band of 12-20 inches is expected from western Nebraska to eastern North Dakota
• Snow
  will also occur across the upper Midwest in the second half of this week
• Bitter
  cold air is slated for the central United States this weekend and all of next week with some of the cold getting into the eastern states over time
• Europe’s
  cold weather bias will begin to abate late this weekend into next week
• China,
  Australia and much of India’s weather is expected to be favorable for winter crops, although southern India will remain wet

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Dec. 13:

• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s monthly data on stockpiles, production and exports
• France’s
  agriculture ministry to release estimates on crop production and winter plantings
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Dec. 14:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• FranceAgriMer’s
  monthly report on grains outlook

Thursday,
Dec. 15:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia’s
  Dec. 1-15 palm oil exports

Friday,
Dec. 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

Saturday,
Dec. 17:

• No
  major event scheduled

Sunday,
Dec. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of November trade data, including corn, pork and wheat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range

Wheat                 
218,460                 versus   200000-475000  range

Corn                     
505,014                 versus   400000-675000  range

Soybeans           
1,839,761             versus   1500000-2000000             range

 

Macros

US
CPI M/M Nov: 0.1% (est 0.3%, prev 0.4%)

US
CPI Ex Food And Energy M/M Nov: 0.2%  (est 0.3%, prev 0.3%)

US
CPI Y/Y Nov: 7.1% (est 7.3%, prev 7.7%)

US
CPI Ex Food And Energy Y/Y Nov: 6.0% (est 6.1%, prev 6.3%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are
higher from strength in US energy prices and ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns. No ships left Ukraine on Monday due to bad weather and lack of power, according to Bloomberg. Odessa was reopened sometime on Monday.

·        
CPI index was friendly for US equities and up 7.1% from a year ago, lowest since December last year and above the Fed’s target of 2%.

·        
Net drying is seen in Argentina over the next week which could stall corn plantings by late this workweek. 

·        
France lowered their 2022 corn production to 10.58 million tons from 10.74MMT, about 30 percent below previous season.

·        
News was light and there were no corn export developments.

·        
Mexico is looking to resolve the GMO corn import issue ahead of the US president’s visit next month.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
January soybeans,
nearby meal and soybean oil are all higher from widespread commodity buying and a lower USD. Palm oil futures rallied overnight from lower-than-expected end of November stocks.

·        
Soybean oil share continues to recover with March around 40.96 percent. It hit 38.78 percent yesterday.

·        
A DTN article noted soybean oil prices under 65 cents was considered a “solid value” for biofuel players.

·        
SGS reported December 1-10 palm oil shipments at 473,086 tons from 408,867 tons during the same period a month earlier.

·        
(Reuters) – Indonesia plans to set the crude palm oil reference price for Dec. 16-31 at $871.99 per ton, deputy coordinating minister of economic affairs Musdhalifah Machmud said on Tuesday, up from $824.32 per tons for Dec. 1-15.
The reference price would put the export tax for the period at $52 per ton and the export levy at $90 per ton. The trade ministry has not yet issued the official document stating the reference price.

·        
MPOB reported palm oil stocks at the end of November fell for the first time in six months from lower-than-expected production and imports. Exports were slightly below expectations. Palm oil production fell 7% to 1.681 million
tons from October and was 2.8% above November 2021. Heavy rains hindered production. Stocks were off 119,820 tons from October, which was a three year high.

 

 

·        
February Malaysia palm oil was up 149 ringgit to 3886 and cash up $20.00/ton at $942.50.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.1%, meal 1.0% lower, soybean oil 0.5% lower and palm off 2.2%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
2.50-27.50 euros higher from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal was 12-13 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 164 points earlier this morning and meal $12.40 short ton higher.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are higher from ongoing Black Sea shipping concerns and sharply lower USD. Air raids went off across all of Ukraine after 6:30 am CT, according to a headline.

·        
A major winter storm will impact the north-central US today through Thursday. 

·        
Paris March wheat was higher 2.00 euros earlier at 308.25 euros a ton.

·        
France’s AgMin estimated the 2023 soft wheat area up 1.7% to 4.75 million hectares.

·        
Russia sees their 2023 wheat crop between 80 and 85 million tons, down from USDA’s 2022 projection of 91 million tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria seeks milling wheat for February shipment on Wednesday.

·        
Japan is in for 154,942 tons of wheat later this week.

·        
Results awaited: the Philippines seeks 110,000 tons of feed wheat for shipment between February and May.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on December 21 for shipment with 40 days of contract signing.

·        
Bangladesh also seeks 50,000 tons of rice on December 27.