FI Morning Grain Comments 12/14/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Next
major economic event will come from the FOMC rate decision later today. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
WTI crude oil is higher and USD lower. News is about the same for the agriculture markets. Grains are lower led by wheat as shipping resumed out of Odessa on Tuesday.
CBOT
soybeans are lower on talk of a weather forecast (06z) calling for rain to reach most of Brazil’s growing areas and parts of Argentina, although Brazil’s far south is still expected to miss out on beneficial rain. Soybean oil is lower on light technical buying
after rallying Tuesday. Soybean meal is mixed on product spreading. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 149 points earlier this morning and meal $1.00 short ton lower.
A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 14,000 thousand barrels to 1063k (1035-1092 range) from the previous week and stocks up 32,000 barrels to 23.289 million.

 

 

Weather

Argentina
will see light rain across Cordoba and eastern BA Thursday, then again across Cordoba Saturday. Most other areas will see increasing crop stress from net drying. The second week of the outlook improves. Brazil will see rain in the northern and central crop
areas although the far south could see crop stress from net drying. The longer-term forecasts for northern Argentina/southern Brazil, are dry for the month of January. The US saw a large boost in snow coverage/soil moisture replenishment after a large storm
swept across the Great Plains. Temps will turn colder for the US over the next two weeks.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 14, 2022

• 06z
  GFS model suggested rain from Buenos Aires to Cordoba, Argentina late next week and into the following weekend
• This
  feature was overdone, although a little rainfall may impact that corridor
• Until
  the end of next week, Argentina rainfall will be restricted along with that in southern Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Paraguay
• There
  is still some potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms after Dec. 24 in Argentina, but early indications suggest mostly light rainfall with greater coverage than that which precedes that time period
• Center
  west through northern parts of center south and northeastern Brazil will be plenty wet over the next ten days to two weeks
• Snowstorm
  in north-central U.S. has produced 23 inches of snow in the Black Hills of South Dakota, 22 inches in north-central Nebraska and 18 inches in south-central South Dakota
• Four
  to 14 inches were common from northwestern Nebraska to much of North Dakota with the greatest accumulations from northwestern Nebraska to southeastern North Dakota
• Light
  snow also fell in a part of eastern Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas with 3-6 inches and local totals to 12 inches (greatest in northeastern Colorado)
• Snow
  will continue in the northern Plains and expand into the upper Midwest through Friday ending from west to east this weekend
• Another
  3 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected with some totals over 12 inches
• Wisconsin
  and upper Michigan will see the greatest snowfall
• Cold
  air will advance across central parts of North America this weekend into next week with the coldest conditions likely in the second half of next week through the Christmas Holiday weekend
• Some
  of the bitter cold will reach the eastern U.S. during the Christmas weekend and into the week of Dec. 26
• Stormy
  weather is expected in northwestern Europe during the week next week and into the following weekend
• One
  more storm is expected to impact south-central through east-central Europe through Saturday with significant rain and snow expected
  
• Snow
  will be greatest from southern Germany, northern Italy, Slovenia and northern Romania to western and northern Ukraine and southwestern Russia Friday through Monday
• Western
  Russia and northwestern Ukraine will be plenty moist during the coming week with abundant snow
• Europe
  temperatures will continue cold in the central and north into the weekend and then much warmer next week
• Eastern
  Russia and China will be colder than usual over the next few days with moderating temperatures likely next week as well
• Not
  much change today in Australia, India, China or South Africa

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Dec. 14:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• FranceAgriMer’s
  monthly report on grains outlook

Thursday,
Dec. 15:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia’s
  Dec. 1-15 palm oil exports

Friday,
Dec. 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

Saturday,
Dec. 17:

• No
  major event scheduled

Sunday,
Dec. 18:

• China’s
  second batch of November trade data, including corn, pork and wheat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Import Price Index (M/M) Nov: -0.6% (est -0.5%; prev -0.2%)

US
Import Price Index Ex Petroleum (M/M) Nov: -0.3% (est -0.5%; prev -0.2%)

US
Import Price Index (Y/Y) Nov: 2.7% (est 3.2%; prev 4.2%)

US
Export Price Index (M/M) Nov: -0.3% (est -0.5%; prev -0.3%)

US
Export Price Index (Y/Y) Nov: 6.3% (est 5.7%; prev 6.9%)

Canadian
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) Oct: 2.8% (est 2.0%; prevR 0.1%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures are
higher on talk of improving South American weather forecasts.

·        
About a third of Ukraine’s corn crop was thought to be stranded in fields. A combination of a wet fall season and rolling blackouts have hindered harvesting progress, according to Reuters. 23.1 MMT was estimated by the AgMin,
down from 25.8 for their previous forecast.

·        
Ukraine grain exports through mid-December are running about 31.5 percent below year earlier.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 14,000 thousand barrels to 1063k (1035-1092 range) from the previous week and stocks up 32,000 barrels to 23.289 million.

 

 

University
of Illinois – Corn and Soybean Yields in 2022

Schnitkey,
G., N. Paulson, C. Zulauf and J. Baltz. “Corn and Soybean Yields in 2022.” farmdoc daily (12):188,  Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, December 13, 2022.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/12/corn-and-soybean-yields-in-2022.html

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower after a weather forecast calling for rain to reach most of Brazil’s growing areas, although the far south is still expected to miss out on beneficial rain. Soybean oil is lower on light technical buying
after rallying Tuesday. Soybean meal was mixed on product spreading.

·        
Second round of the Argentina soybean dollar yielded about 2.5MMT in producer sales for soybeans.

·        
India palm oil imports were 1.14 million tons during November, up 29 percent from October. Soyoil imports fell 31% to 229,373 tons last month and sunflower oil imports rose 8.8% to 157,709 tons. India’s overall vegetable oil imports
in November rose 10.6% to 1.55 million tons, according to SEA.

·        
February Malaysia palm oil was up 64 ringgit to 3950 and cash up $10/ton at $952.50.

·        
China soybean futures were unchanged, meal 0.8% lower, soybean oil 1.1% higher and palm up 2.2%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
unchanged to 22.50 euros lower from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal was 1-6 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 149 points earlier this morning and meal $1.00 short ton lower.

 

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are lower on talk of Ukraine grain vessels resuming departure, amounting to about 240,000 tons. Eight ships left Odessa on Tuesday. Another 23 are awaiting loading (nearly 700k tons).

·        
Paris March wheat was lower 3.25 euros earlier at 302.25 euros a ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria in in today for milling wheat for February shipment.

·        
Japan received no offers for feed wheat and barley for arrival in Japan by March 9. Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of durum wheat on December 15 for Jan 10-Feb 25 shipment.

·        
Japan is in for 154,942 tons of wheat later this week.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on December 21 for shipment with 40 days of contract signing.

·        
Bangladesh also seeks 50,000 tons of rice on December 27.