FI Morning Grain Comments 12/29/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

Today
is position day for January futures.  We are looking for little, if any, First Notice Day meal deliveries, no soybeans, light soybean oil. There are no grain January futures. 
USD
was lower by 36 points earlier, WTI crude oil $1.70 lower, US equities higher, and gold mixed.
Grains
are lower and complex is mixed. News was extremely light. A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 17,000 thousand barrels to 1012k (997-1022 range) from the previous week and stocks down 31,000 barrels to 24.036 million.

 

 

 

Weather

Showers
should favor Argentina’s Cordoba today and Saturday. Southern Brazil will see net drying. U.S. Northern Plains will receive significant snow Monday into Tuesday of next week. Upper Midwest will see rain. The US Delta and SE will see significant rain over the
next week.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DECEMBER 29, 2022

• Argentina’s
  weekend rainfall will be welcome, but not nearly enough to bust up the nation’s drought
• All
  Brazil crop areas will get rain periodically during the next ten days with the exception of southern and central Rio Grande do Sul and a few far northeastern crop areas in the nation where precipitation may not be enough to counter evaporation and pockets
  of net drying will result
• Brazil’s
  greatest rain will be in center south production areas in this coming week and some local flooding “may” evolve
• U.S.
  Northern Plains will receive significant snow Monday into Tuesday of next week with the upper Midwest getting rain and rain changing to snow at about the same time
• Light
  precipitation in northwestern portions of U.S. hard red winter wheat areas overnight will have a minor impact on crop and field conditions
• Another
  storm will impact U.S. hard red winter wheat areas during early to mid-week next week, but only the northwest and extreme eastern parts of the region will get precipitation. The southwestern Plains will stay dry
• Abundant
  precipitation is expected in the U.S. Delta, Tennessee River Basin and eastern Midwest next week and into the following weekend with some heavy rainfall expected
• California
  and the neighboring areas will experience significant rain and mountain snowfall over the coming week to ten days resulting in significant increases in oil moisture and potential runoff for use in the spring
• Europe
  precipitation will remain concentrated in the west and far north over the next ten days
• No
  threatening cold is expected in any winter crop region in the Northern Hemisphere over the next ten days
• Western
  Russia will continue to receive frequent precipitation through the next ten days keep snow depths quite high and flood potentials in the spring rising
• No
  significant changes were noted for India, China, Australia or South Africa overnight
• North
  Africa will continue drier than usual

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Dec. 29:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Vietnam’s
  general statistics department releases monthly coffee, rice and rubber export data

Friday,
Dec. 30:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am

• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitment of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)

Saturday,
Dec. 31:

• Malaysia’s
  Dec. 1-31 palm oil export data by cargo surveyor AmSpec

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

https://finviz.com/

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn futures
are lower in part to weakness in wheat and lack of news.

·        
The World Food Program (UN) is interested in buying 75,000 tons of Ukraine agriculture products, likely destined for poor countries.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 17,000 thousand barrels to 1012k (997-1022 range) from the previous week and stocks down 31,000 barrels to 24.036 million.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 1 percent from the previous year and chicks placed up 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through December 24, 2022, for the United States
were 9.60 billion. Cumulative placements were up 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are slightly higher on technical buying after soybean oil gained over meal. A lower USD helps but lack of fresh news could create a two-sided trade. Soybean meal is lower in part to lower corn and product spreading.
Offshore values were suggesting a higher trade in soybean oil and lower trade in meal.

·        
Bloomberg: Argentina Soy Exporters Sold $2.86 Billion From Nov. 28.

·        
Indonesia will enforce their mandatory 35% palm oil biodiesel blending program on Feb. 1, a month later than initially planned, from current 30%. The allocation is unchanged at 13.15 million kiloliters.

·        
March palm oil futures in Malaysian were up 3 ringgit to 4,090 and cash down $10/ton at $950.00.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.5%, meal 0.7% higher, soybean oil 0.1 lower and palm down 0.7%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
5-15 euros lower from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal 5-8 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 132 points earlier this morning and meal $7.50 short ton
lower.

 

Export
Developments

·        
South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 25,000 tons of GMO free food-quality soybeans, optional origin, on January 4 for arrival between December 2023 and June 2024.

 

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
Chicago wheat is
lower on lack of news and slowdown in global export developments.

·        
The Russia/Ukraine fighting escalated.

·        
Paris March wheat was 4.00 euros lower earlier at 310.75 euros a ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Yesterday Egypt’s GASC bought 200,000 tons of Russian wheat at $339 per ton C&F as part of a World Bank-funded food security program for shipment is from Feb. 1-15, optional origin, and payment is for at sight.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 113,460 tons of rice on December 29 from the United States for arrival in South Korea in 2023 between Feb. 1 and June 30.